Dynasty 3rd Baseman Rankings: January 2019

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by Connor Henry

Continuing with our offseason dynasty rankings, today there are 39 third basemen ranked and separated into tiers. The rankings represent relative value of these players in a dynasty league by taking into consideration immediate value vs. years of possible relevance left. As always these rankings should be manipulated to match the league type you play in so take then with a slight grain of salt. Below are thoughts about how the rankings were created.

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1 Jose Ramirez – 26 Tier 1: Elite
2 Alex Bregman – 24
3 Manny Machado – 26
4 Nolan Arenado – 27
5 Vladimir Guerrero Jr (P) – 19
6 Kris Bryant – 27  
7 Anthony Rendon – 28 Tier 2: Next Best
8 Eugenio Suarez – 27
9 Miguel Andujar – 23
10 Matt Chapman – 25
11 Joey Gallo – 25
12 Rafael Devers – 22
13 Travis Shaw – 28
14 Matt Carpenter – 33  
15 Nick Senzel (P) – 23 Tier 3: Upside Chasers
16 Josh Donaldson – 32
17 Justin Turner – 33
18 Max Muncy – 28
19 Wil Myers – 27
20 Jurickson Profar – 25
21 Mike Moustakas – 30
22 Miguel Sano – 25
23 Nolan Gorman (P) – 18
24 Jake Lamb – 28 Tier 4: Prospects + Solid Options
25 Brian Anderson – 25
26 Alec Bohm (P) – 22
27 Johan Camargo – 25
28 Austin Riley (P) – 21
29 Jonathan India (P) – 21
30 Colton Welker (P) – 21
31 Ryan Mountcastle (P) – 22
32 Michael Chavis (P) – 23 Tier 5: Willing to Take a Chance
33 Eduardo Escobar – 30
34 Kyle Seager – 31
35 Yandy Diaz – 27
36 Maikel Franco – 26
37 Jeimer Candelario – 25
38 Colin Moran – 26
39 Nolan Jones (P)  

Other Options: Ke’Bryan Hayes (P), Todd Frazier, Taylor Ward, Evan Longoria

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Tier 1: The elite third baseman shouldn’t be much a surprise to anyone heading into the 2019 season. Ramirez and Bregman top my rankings due to age and elite five category production as Manny Machado and Arenado sit comfortably right behind them. While some may disagree, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. comes in at fifth in the rankings despite not yet played in the Majors. I’ll be the one to admit that I am slightly concerned about Kris Bryant’s power output last season, but the Guerrero ranking stems from confidence in his ability rather than a lack of confidence in Bryant.

Tier 2: Anthony Rendon and Eugenio Suarez begin this tier and should both provide very impressive and consistent fantasy production for the next several years. Rendon sometimes goes underappreciated, but with solid power and elite batting average + OBP, he’s a fantastic asset in dynasty leagues. The Suarez breakout we saw in 2018 was completely backed up by a ridiculous 48% hard contact rate so keep rolling him out there for the foreseeable future. Andujar and Chapman rank next due to youth and solid production. Chapman may regress a bit in his batting average, but I expect the plate discipline and power to continue improving. Devers falls behind the other youngsters at this point due to his lack of production in the Majors, but in a dynasty format there’s not much you can do except hold on and wait for the immense talent to (hopefully) come to fruition. Carpenter closes out this tier and despite having arguably his best fantasy season to date still possesses some risk going into his age 33 season as a full-time third baseman with documented shoulder issues.

Tier 3: Senzel and Donaldson both just missed a placement in the second tier due to injury concerns. Donaldson, now 32, needs to prove his health in order to deserve a raise in the rankings, but we all know what he is capable of. Senzel has lost a bit of prospect hype due to nagging vertigo concerns, but 2019 could be the year his talent forces him into the Reds lineup. Max Muncy and Wil Myers were a toss up in the rankings but Muncy eventually took the 18th spot solely due to Myers injury concerns. After moving across the diamond and to a corner outfield spot, Myers has yet to prove he can last a full season. Profar and Sano also slot into this tier with Profar possessing the safer floor yet more restrictive ceiling. However, with a bit of positive regression to his dismal .269 BABIP in 2018 he could contribute across the board in a solid A’s lineup. Sano, on the other hand, possesses huge power upside and could be a top dynasty asset if he gets his head in the right place. Nolan Gorman, the 19th overall pick in the 2018 draft, also projects to be a huge asset in power and could easily pass Sano in the rankings with an impressive start to the 2019 season.

Tier 4: This tier consists of three solid MLB options in Brian Anderson, Jake Lamb and Johan Camargo, all of whom can provide solid fantasy production for the next several years. Anderson has interesting batting average upside, and if he can provide a bit more in the power category could make a jump in the rankings. Austin Riley, the supposed heir to Atlanta’s third base job, might have to wait a bit longer with the recent acquisition of Donaldson but could be a difference maker in the power category. Despite a fall in the prospect rankings, Ryan Mountcastle made some strides in his plate discipline in 2018 and could be ready to make an impact for the rebuilding Orioles in the near future. As the 5th overall pick in the 2018 draft Jonathan India has an intriguing hit tool to go along with projectable power, so don’t be surprised if he makes a jump in the rankings this coming season.

Tier 5: Nolan Jones and Michael Chavis slot into this tier as the prospects with a bit more potential than the current MLB players like Escobar, Seager and Candelario. However, I still see each of them as a tick below the other prospects in Tier 4 in overall upside. Chavis may have good power but the plate discipline needs to improve to give me hope. Jones, on the other hand, walks over 15% of the time but hasn’t fully developed his power yet. Keep an eye on both in case they come out of the gates hot in 2019. I’ll mention that Yandy Diaz has crazy potential. If he gets a full-time gig in Tampa Bay and learns how to elevate the ball, get ready to scoop him up in all leagues.

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3 COMMENTS

  1. You can research this yourself if you don’t believe me, but Moran started standing farther off the plate at the end of August because he’s 6’5″ and it allowed him to see things better. Consequently, he posted a .912 OPS in September. He talked about how his new approach made all the difference in the world for him seeing the ball better. I’m not saying he’s going to post a .900 or better OPS over the course of a full year season with his new approach, but something in the .820-.850 range wouldn’t shock me.

    Chuck

    • Interesting for sure. Hadn’t looked into it much and to be honest I’ve been a little concerned Kang could take some time from him at 3rd, not a lot, but maybe some. I’ll keep my eye on Moran though to see if any improvements stick.

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