Both Austin Meadows (3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R) and Tommy Pham (2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R) enjoyed big days at the dish. Khris Davis does what he does, going 3-5 with 2 HR, 4 RBI and 2 R (he’s up to 7 HR and 14 RBI on the season). Starling Marte filled the box score showing off his overall skillset, going 2-5 with 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R and 1 SB against Yu Darvish (5 R over 5.1 IP) and company. What else happened on the field that we need to know about? Let’s take a look:
1) Are we buying the
breakout of Matt Boyd…
Despite pitching well it was his first win of the season, outpitching Bauer
(5.2 IP, 4 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 7 K) en route to the victory. Boyd allowed 1 ER on 4 H and 2 BB, striking
out 6, over 6.0 IP. He had struck out 23
over 11.1 IP to enter the year, though no one should’ve expected that to
continue (10 swinging strikes yesterday, a believable regression from his 20.2%
SwStr% entering the day after a 10.2% mark last year). While he still got the job done here, a drop
in his strikeouts will ultimately have a significant impact as the risk for
home runs is high (25.0% groundball rate in his first two starts, 4 groundballs
vs. 7 fly balls yesterday). Couple that
with solid, yet unspectacular, control and there appears to be a few blowups
coming. He’s worth owning, but don’t
make the mistake of overvaluing him.
2) Has Tyler Glasnow
truly unlocked his potential…
He was dominant against the White Sox, tossing 6.0 shutout innings allowing 2 H
and 1 BB, striking out 11. Over his
first three starts (17.0 IP) he now owns a 0.53 ERA and 0.82 WHIP, as well as
21 K vs. 3 BB. Interestingly his 85
pitches thrown yesterday are a season high, and if they continue to limit him
in that regard it could hinder his opportunities for victories (he’s currently
3-0). There’s no questioning his swing
and miss stuff, and if he has truly unlocked his control and can hammer the
strike zone like this the results should be there. That remains to be seen, and there also could
be the risk of home runs plaguing him (13 fly balls vs. 7 groundballs over his
past two starts). Pitching in the AL East
adds a little bit more risk, as you have to wonder if the Red Sox and Yankees
will be able to expose him at all. Is
there a chance that he truly has figured it out? Absolutely, and that makes him worth
owning. That said if someone in your
league is willing to pay a premium to find out we’d consider selling high
(especially in redraft formats).
3) Nick Margevicius
keeps on rolling…
Taking on the Giants he went 6.0 innings allowing 1 ER on 5 H and 0 BB,
striking out 6. He made one mistake, a
solo home run to Kevin Pillar (1-4,1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R), though he was generating
ample groundballs in this one (8 groundballs vs. 4 fly balls). He entered the day with a 48.1% groundball
rate, though his best carrying tool is clearly his control (1 BB over 16.0
IP). Those two things are going to yield
some solid results, though whether or not he’ll generate enough strikeouts to make
a true impact remains to be seen (he entered the day with a 4.8% SwStr% and generated
10 swinging strikes yesterday). He had
shown more in the minors, though we have to remember that he had never pitched
above High-A prior to debuting in the Majors this year. If he can even get the strikeouts into the
7.5-8.0 range the value could be significant, but at the very least he’s a plug
and play option for now.
4) Trevor Richards
shows off why he was among our favorite preseason sleepers…
Obviously it’s just one start, but after a shaky first few innings he found
himself and posted a tremendous line. He
struggled with his control early, but ultimately tossed 6.0 shutout innings
allowing 1 H and 5 BB, striking out 7.
He generated an impressive 21 swinging strikes and over 18.0 innings he
owns a 2.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 18 K.
That’s not to say that he is immediately a can’t miss, as he has struggled
with his control overall (10 BB) and there is the risk of some home run issues
(35.3% groundball rate entering the day, 35.8% last season). The latter is the biggest concern and while
he isn’t going to be a set him and forget him option, there’s enough potential
there to produce.
5) Is it already time
to give up on Nick Pivetta…
One of the more highly hyped pitchers heading into the season, he’s been
abysmal thus far and for many things reached a tipping point last night. Over 3.2 innings against the Nationals he was
touched up for 7 ER on 7 H and 3 BB, striking out 6, bringing him to a 9.45 ERA
and 2.18 WHIP over 13.1 IP. A lot of his
problems last season were attributed to poor luck, but how long can we use that
argument? Interestingly enough
considering his .412 BABIP entering the day and starting to show a little bit
more groundball stuff (and in turn not allowing a home run yesterday) it seems
like that could once again be the issue.
Obviously the thought is going to be that it’s not going to happen, but
he’s showing just enough (like his 14 K vs. 5 BB) to make you think that
putting things together is still possible.
While he shouldn’t be in your starting lineup, keeping him stashed to
see if the luck changes is the prudent decision in most formats (outside of the
shallowest of leagues).
6) Should we be
concerned with James Paxton…
Entering the season the only perceived “issue” was whether or not he’d finally
be able to stay healthy for an entire season.
However he’s now tossed back-to-back stinkers after allowing 5 ER on 8 H
and 3 BB, striking out 5, over 4.0 IP.
Jose Altuve led the charge (2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R) as Paxton has now
allowed 9 ER over 9.1 IP in his past two starts (6.00 ERA, 1.73 WHIP overall). Interestingly he had just 8 swinging strikes
yesterday, though that hadn’t been an issue early on. The bigger concern is that he simply wasn’t
fooling anyone (22.6% O-Swing% over his first two starts), and that could lead
to a continued rise in walks. With home
runs an issue last season as well (1.29 HR/9), that could become an even bigger
issue. It’s not something we’d move on
yet, but it needs to be monitored closely.
7) Is Marcell Ozuna
truly rebounding to being “elite”…
He went 3-4 with 1 HR, 2 RBI and 2 R yesterday, bringing him to .262 with 3 HR,
7 RBI and 2 SB over 42 AB this season. We
all know he was plagued by shoulder issues last season, which helped to drag
down his production, and while it’s nice to see the power returning it’s not to
say that he’s completely “back”. He
already has 13 K vs. 2 BB overall, having entered the day with a 30.0%
SwStr%. Obviously it’s early but that’s
a significant red flag, especially for a player who has added just 2 doubles
and continues to show a limited line drive rate (15.4% line drive rate entering
the day, compared to 19.2% for his career).
That’s not to say he should be ignored or sold, but there is some risk
that the power surge is more mirage and simply hiding the negatives early on.
8) Are we buying what
Jason Heyward is selling…
He went 3-4 with 1 HR, 1 RBI and 1 R yesterday, simply continuing his
impressive start as he’s hitting .371 with 4 HR, 9 RBI, 10 R and 2 SB over 35
AB. Obviously he’s always appeared to
have name value, but the results on the field have generally not been
there. Thus far he’s showing an
incredibly strong approach, with 4 K vs. 6 BB, though you can argue that it’s
been all or nothing to an extent (he has yet to add an additional extra base
hit) and appears to be trying to swing for the fences (50.0% fly ball rate
entering the day). When the home runs
dry up, and considering his career 10.8% HR/FB you would think they would, the overall
results are going to plummet. Ride him
while he’s hot, but be ready to move on quickly.
9) Robbie Ray shows
what’s possible when he has his control…
Taking on the Rangers he allowed 1 ER on 2 H and 1 BB, striking out 10,
over 5.0 innings but ultimately settled for a no decision. There’s never been a question about his
strikeout stuff, but there’s never a guarantee that he’s going to be able to display
any type of control from start-to-start (he had walked 5 batters in each of his
first two outings). Even in this start
he managed to pile up the pitches (he threw 94) and has yet to go past 5.1
innings in a start this season. If that’s
going to be an issue how is he going to be able to get wins (especially with
the control always hanging over him).
Strikeouts are nice, but you need to be able to do something with
it. At this point that’s getting harder
to see happening.
10) Is Frankie Montas
emerging as a trustworthy option…
He defeated the Orioles to improve to 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA as he allowed 3 ER on
3 H and 1 BB, striking out 3, over 6.0 IP.
While the results are there he hasn’t generated a significant number of
strikeouts (14 K over 17.0 IP) and he’s allowed at least 1 HR in each of his
three starts (4 HR overall). He has been
generating more groundballs (including 9 groundballs vs. 6 fly balls yesterday),
and pitching half his games in Oakland you would think that the home runs are
more aberration than anything (possibly thanks to the incorporation of a split-finger
fastball this year). There also could be
a little bit more strikeout upside and the potential is there to put it all
together. There’s obviously some risk,
but there’s enough to potential to grab him in most formats.
Sources – ESPN, Fangraphs
Which pitcher would you prefer long term-Yusei Kikuchi or Eovaldi?
Thanks
It’s tough. I think Kikuchi will figure it out and have value, so I’d lean that way (though there are going to be some bumps along the way)
Thank you
Professor, Pivetta is killing me. Woodruff, Burnes, Caleb Smith and Margevicius are available. Sit tight?
I have the same question… Though add Richards and Kelly as possible options.
Yea, I would. I know how frustrating Pivetta has been, but his upside is still higher than those guys. The only exception might be Richards (who I was extremely high on entering the season), but with those guys all sitting there moving on from Pivetta doesn’t need to be an immediate move. Sit tight