2020 Draft Day Decisions: Four Players I’m Avoiding At Their Current Price


When you are drafting it’s not always about whether or not a player will have value, but if the player’s value is worth their cost.  Here are a few players who should have significant value in 2020, but their current ADP far outweighs that value and therefore should be avoided because of it:

Jonathan Villar – Miami Marlins (ADP – 41.66)

Stolen bases are hard to find and that’s going to make Villar appear like a no-brainer acquisition, but will he really return fourth round value?  We’ve seen the good and bad from him over the years, and it’s easy to be excited coming off one of the “good” years (.274 with 24 HR and 40 SB).  There are a few key metrics that should be seen as warning signs, however:

  • Hard% – 29.0%
  • SwStr% – 12.4%

Neither are ideal for any hitter, and it’s easy to overlook that he hit .259 in the first half.  Throw in that the Marlins will be trying him out in centerfield, where he could struggle to adjust and ultimately lose the job, and it adds to the risk of making the selection this early.

Tyler Glasnow – Tampa Bay Rays (ADP – 69.84)

Glasnow is not going to be a bad option, but he’s getting a bit overhyped after 12 impressive starts a year ago.  Let’s not forget he benefited from an 84.7% strand rate and featured a limited repertoire that could get exposed as teams see him more:

  • Fourseam Fastball – 67.34%
  • Curveball – 29.21%
  • Changeup – 3.46%

How long can he thrive leaning on two pitches, especially with routinely facing the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays?  It’s not to say that he won’t have value, but he’s being selected before names like Mike Soroka, Carlos Carrasco and Frankie Montas, all of whom can be had 25+ picks later in your draft.

Chris Paddack – San Diego Padres (ADP – 55.84)

In another season Paddack would’ve likely won the Rookie of the Year Award, but Pete Alonso’s historic season cost him that opportunity despite his 3.33 ERA, 9.79 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9.  He stumbled in August, and while he’s not going to be that bad his 7.50 ERA over 24.0 IP should be a warning sign considering these key underlying metrics:

  • BABIP – .237
  • Hard% – 42.1%

He has elite control, and that’s going to keep him as a strong option, but a “sophomore slump” is a very realistic possibility.

Yasiel Puig – Free Agent (ADP – 142.77)

We are roughly two weeks from the start of the season and Puig continues to be looking for a team.  How often have we seen these late signers struggle, as they miss time to get ready for the season?  Also who’s to say that Puig finds a team any time soon (or ultimately signs in a favorable situation)?  There are rumors and speculation, but until he puts pen to paper there’s far too much risk involved.

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball

Make sure to check out all of our 2020 preseason rankings:

PositionLast Updated
First Basemen02/13/20
Second Basemen02/18/20
Third Basemen02/21/20
Starting Pitchers03/09/20
Relief Pitchers03/03/20


  1. RP:

    Are you investing in Brendan McKay? Feels like the guy remains a top flight prospect and TB staff might have openings shortly

    • Yep, I am. He’s not a sure thing by any stretch, but at the price he’s worth the gamble to see if he can figure it out

      • Given that, please advise on my keeper list. I am in AL-Only 9-10 team, 5×5 with 8 keepers (27 players; $305 budget). Given rules of league, I have two “Must Keep” keepers: Tanner Roark ($1) and Franmil Reyes ($27).

        For the other 6, here are my choices:
        Lindor $30
        Mallex Smith $11 (Tempting category killer)
        Dandy Yandy Diaz $2
        Canha $10
        Polanco $15
        Arraez $10
        Clevinger $18
        Heaney $10
        Bassitt $8
        McKay $8
        Osuna $21
        Nick Anderson $8

        Which 6 would you keep???

        • I’d def. keep Yandy Diaz at that price.

          The others I could see are Clevinger (depending on the injury news), Heaney, Anderson, McKay and maybe Lindor (depending on the history of the keepers in the league)


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