2020 Draft Day Sleepers: Three Late Round Second Baseman Worth Targeting


While second base isn’t as shallow as it once was, that doesn’t mean that it’s particularly deep.  In looking at our rankings once you get past D.J. Lemahieu (#10) and Jeff McNeil (#11), both of which have their own questions despite being drafted like they don’t, there is a lot of uncertainty.  That means looking towards the fliers in the later rounds makes sense, since you need to have adequate depth.  Let’s take a few names that are available late who could far outproduce their current ADP and ultimately produce like starters:

Robinson Cano – New York Mets
Current Average ADP – 377.09

Many thought Cano’s production wouldn’t match his contract, but his first season with the Mets was a spectacular failure marred by injury and miserable performance. He finished hitting .256 with 13 HR over 423 PA, though the underlying metrics support better than a .280 BABIP:

  • Hard – 38.0%
  • Oppo% – 27.5%
  • Fly Ball Rate – 31.0%

He also had an above average Barrel% (7.4% vs. 6.3%) and Exit Velocity (90.8% vs. 87.5%), at least somewhat indicating an increase in power. That’s not to say that he will be a 30 HR slugger, though keep in mind he hit .284 with 9 HR over 165 PA in the second half.

Don’t confuse him for the elite option he used to be, but you could do far worse late in your draft.

Isan Diaz – Miami Marlins
Current Average ADP – 565.39

He hit .173 over 201 PA in the Majors so it makes sense that people are choosing to ignore him. However a .224 BABIP and strikeout issues sabotaged him, despite a solid approach (10.0% SwStr%, 25.9% O-Swing%). His 17.5% launch angle helps to indicate that he should generate more power, even playing half his games in Miami:

  • Triple-A – 28.3% HR/FB
  • Majors – 9.3% HR/FB

He had 26 HR at Triple-A and a 30 HR campaign with a 250+ AVG is very possible. Considering the cost, he’s a no-brainer.

Rougned Odor – Texas Rangers
Current Average ADP – 227.25

He hit .205 last year, but added 30 HR and just a year earlier hit .253. He is pull heavy (19.1% Oppo%) and was clearly swinging for the fences (47.9% fly ball rate), both of which work against him. So does his 12.7% SwStr%, so it’s unlikely he hits for a great average.

Still a little bit of luck, coupled with the power and double digit stolen bases, makes him a decent gamble. He shouldn’t be a starter, but at the price he’s got enough upside to roll the dice.

Sources – Fangraphs, Baseball Savant

Make sure to check out all of our 2020 preseason rankings:

PositionLast Updated
First Basemen02/13/20
Second Basemen02/18/20
Third Basemen02/21/20
Starting Pitchers03/09/20
Relief Pitchers03/03/20


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