While second base isn’t as shallow as it once was, that doesn’t mean that it’s particularly deep. In looking at our rankings once you get past D.J. Lemahieu (#10) and Jeff McNeil (#11), both of which have their own questions despite being drafted like they don’t, there is a lot of uncertainty. That means looking towards the fliers in the later rounds makes sense, since you need to have adequate depth. Let’s take a few names that are available late who could far outproduce their current ADP and ultimately produce like starters:
Robinson Cano – New York Mets
Current Average ADP – 377.09
Many thought Cano’s production wouldn’t match his contract, but his first season with the Mets was a spectacular failure marred by injury and miserable performance. He finished hitting .256 with 13 HR over 423 PA, though the underlying metrics support better than a .280 BABIP:
- Hard – 38.0%
- Oppo% – 27.5%
- Fly Ball Rate – 31.0%
He also had an above average Barrel% (7.4% vs. 6.3%) and Exit Velocity (90.8% vs. 87.5%), at least somewhat indicating an increase in power. That’s not to say that he will be a 30 HR slugger, though keep in mind he hit .284 with 9 HR over 165 PA in the second half.
Don’t confuse him for the elite option he used to be, but you could do far worse late in your draft.
Isan Diaz – Miami Marlins
Current Average ADP – 565.39
He hit .173 over 201 PA in the Majors so it makes sense that people are choosing to ignore him. However a .224 BABIP and strikeout issues sabotaged him, despite a solid approach (10.0% SwStr%, 25.9% O-Swing%). His 17.5% launch angle helps to indicate that he should generate more power, even playing half his games in Miami:
- Triple-A – 28.3% HR/FB
- Majors – 9.3% HR/FB
He had 26 HR at Triple-A and a 30 HR campaign with a 250+ AVG is very possible. Considering the cost, he’s a no-brainer.
Rougned Odor – Texas Rangers
Current Average ADP – 227.25
He hit .205 last year, but added 30 HR and just a year earlier hit .253. He is pull heavy (19.1% Oppo%) and was clearly swinging for the fences (47.9% fly ball rate), both of which work against him. So does his 12.7% SwStr%, so it’s unlikely he hits for a great average.
Still a little bit of luck, coupled with the power and double digit stolen bases, makes him a decent gamble. He shouldn’t be a starter, but at the price he’s got enough upside to roll the dice.
Sources – Fangraphs, Baseball Savant
Make sure to check out all of our 2020 preseason rankings: