2020 Bust Alert: Is A Late Season Surge Causing Amed Rosario To Be Overhyped?

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The Mets Amed Rosario appeared to figure things out in the second half of 2019.  While he was solid in the first half, things looked better both offensively and defensively after the All-Star Break ending the speculation of a position change.  Just look at the numbers:

  • First Half (356 PA) – .260 with 9 HR, 42 RBI, 38 R and 10 SB
  • Second Half (299 PA) – .319 with 6 HR, 30 RBI, 37 R and 9 SB

Sure the stolen base total is nice and the power was consistent, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t questions.  For one is his efficiency on the bases, especially considering he was caught 7 times in the second half (overall he went 19-for-29).  Learning how to use his speed would go a long way, but at a 67.6% success rate over his MLB career (50-for-74) it’s hard to assume that a dramatic change is coming.

There are even more questions about his average, with the second half being hard to believe.  Overall Rosario owned a 33.4% Hard%, including a 31.3% mark in the second half.  Speed or not, can we believe a .363 BABIP after the All-Star Break?

Couple the likely decline in his luck with an always questionable approach (he has a 4.4% career walk rate) and the issues mount.  While he does manage to avoid strikeouts, even his “improved” SwStr% (11.6% in ’19) and O-Swing% (38.1% in ’19) make you wonder and point towards the first half being far more believable.

Now the power, with his ceiling potentially being capped in the 14-18 HR range given these metrics:

  • Fly Ball Rate – 48.3%
  • Launch Angle – 8.0
  • Exit Velocity – 89.2 mph

Could Rosario take a significant step forward in 2020?  It’s not impossible, but there are questions to his average and a ceiling for his power.  The fact that speed is hard to find helps his cause, but he’s never proven capable of being efficient and if he’s not getting on base just how often will he get to show it?  Throw in a lack of OBP leading to him hitting towards the bottom of the batting order and things just continue to get worse.

Rosario is a depth option and worth a flier for stolen bases, but nothing more than that.

Sources – Fangraphs, Baseball Savant

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PositionLast Updated
Catcher04/13/20
First Baseman--
Second Baseman04/15/20
Shortstop04/17/20
Third Baseman04/20/20
Outfield04/24/20
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