Rotoprofessor

By Tim Lawrence

Earlier, Rotoprofessor predicted that Desmond Jennings may well be the one the best prospects to roster in 2010, with his all around skills, including blazing speed, good contact skills and some moderate power upside. On the other side of the diamond, Wade Davis may just be the best pitching prospect to roster, though he is flying under the radar a little bit. Davis made his debut last year for the Rays, going 2-2, pitching 36.1 innings, striking out 36 and walking only 13.

Minor League Record and Tools

Davis has done nothing but produce since the Rays have drafted him, dominating every level, never having higher than a 3.85 E.R.A., and averaging over 9 K/9 up through AA, and over 8 K/9 in AAA. In his small MLB sample size, he more than held his own, and missed a lot of bats. Though he dominates with a low to mid 90’s 4-seam fastball, he has maintained an ability to get ground balls, even as he’s moved up the ladder, which speaks to his improvement in command not only of his fastball, but also of his filthy curveball and average changeup. He still walks a few too many, but should improve on that. He probably will end up as ML average in GB ratio, but along with 7.5 to 8.5 K/9 ability should land him as a #2 starter. Read the rest of this entry »

Ranking starting pitchers is definitely one of the more debatable positions in baseball.  How do you rank up-and-coming pitchers like Yovani Gallardo, Ubaldo Jimenez and Tommy Hanson?  How about injury concern pitchers like Johan Santana and Chris Carpenter?  Let’s take a look at how things currently look for me:

1. Tim Lincecum - San Francisco Giants
2. Zack Greinke - Kansas City Royals
3. Roy Halladay - Philadelphia Phillies
4. Felix Hernandez - Seattle Mariners
5. CC Sabathia - New York Yankees
6. Johan Santana - New York Mets
7. Chris Carpenter - St. Louis Cardinals
8. Dan Haren - Arizona Diamondbacks
9. Jon Lester - Boston Red Sox
10. Justin Verlander - Detroit Tigers
11. Yovani Gallardo - Milwaukee Brewers
12. Ubaldo Jimenez - Colorado Rockies
13. Clayton Kershaw - Los Angeles Dodgers
14. Cole Hamels - Philadelphia Phillies
15. Adam Wainwright - St. Louis Cardinals Read the rest of this entry »

Now is the perfect time to order the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (available for $5).  The guide, which is in an Excel Format (or pdf upon request) includes:

• Top 300 Players
• Over 570 Player Projections
• Expanded Rankings (i.e. Top 30 Catchers, Top 100 Starting Pitchers)
• Ages for every player projected as of 4/1/10
• The Rotoprofessor’s quick take on every player projected
• Auction Values
• Projected lineups and rotations
• As a special bonus, in mid-February you will receive a Top 50 Prospects for 2010 list (on the website, I will be releasing a Top 20 list)
• Updates every 2-3 weeks

Remember, this draft guide is not a replacement to the website.  Instead, it is a supplement to it.  In fact, if there is a player that I’ve done an article on their name will be linked back to the website so you can easily access those articles for more in depth information on any player.

If there is any player who is not included in the original draft guide that you would like to see added, please make the suggestion and I will do my best to include them in the next revision.

This is your chance to have all of the information you need to thrive in your fantasy leagues in 2010.  Place your order now and immediately start reaping the benefits!

Third base is not as deep of a position as it once was, there’s just no arguing that fact.  One of the reasons is that the players who once starred at the position are just no longer able to produce up to par.  Take Chipper Jones for instance…

Well, the truth of the matter is Jones can still produce, even at 37-years old (he turns 38 in April).  He’s not the player he once was, no question, but his ability to stay on the field is the biggest problem surrounding him.

Before we get into that, let’s take a look at his production from 2009:

488 At Bats
.264 Batting Average (129 Hits)
18 Home Runs
71 RBI
80 Runs
4 Stolen Bases
.388 On Base Percentage
.430 Slugging Percentage
.291 Batting Average on Balls in Play

There’s a lot of negative to note:

• It’s the first time he was below 20 HR ever
• It was his lowest average since he hit .248 in 2004

I could say it was his lowest RBI total, which is true, but he had 72 in ‘05 and 75 in ‘08 (sandwiching years of 86 and 102), so it’s not like he’s been an elite run producer in some time (outside of that one season). Read the rest of this entry »

As we enter the 2010 season there are just a handful of prospects that fantasy owners know need to be on their radars because they will be making an impact.  Carlos Santana…  Jason Heyward…  The best of the bunch, however, could be the Rays’ Desmond Jennings.

He split time between Double & Triple-A in ‘09, but he looked good at both stops:

497 At Bats
.318 Batting Average (158 Hits)
11 Home Runs
62 RBI
92 Runs
52 Stolen Bases
.401 On Base Percentage
.487 Slugging Percentage
.351 Batting Average on Balls in Play

There is no questioning the speed he brings to the field.  To get to 52 stolen bases he needed just 59 attempts, meaning he was successful 88.14% of the time.  In the Major Leagues, no player who stole 40 bases or more was caught less than 12 times.

Obviously, it’s a different game.  The catchers throwing ability at Double-A is vastly different then the catchers at the Major League level, but it certainly is still worth noting.  Just for comparison, in 436 AB between Double and Triple-A in 2007, Jacoby Ellsbury went 41-for-48.  In other words he was caught as many times as Jennings, but with 11 less stolen bases. Read the rest of this entry »

For new readers this is something we did last season.  As you read these columns, keep in mind that they are not my actual projections, instead things that I believe have a chance of happening, though less than 20% of the time.

Last season I went 5-for-30, which, given the predictions, is not too bad.  If you want to see last years, click here, but here are a few examples from ‘09:

• Ichiro scores less then 90 runs
• Jacoby Ellsbury steals 70 bases
• Frank Francisco will pick up at least 40 saves while holding the closer’s job all season
• Troy Tulowitzki drives in at least 120 RBI
• Rafael Furcal steals at least 40 bases

You win some, you lose some.  Now, onto the first prediction of 2010:

Cody Ross will hit 35 HR or more
He has shown power, posting the following HR/FB over the past three seasons:

• 2007 - 23.1% (12 HR in 173 AB)
• 2008 - 14.6% (22 HR in 461 AB)
• 2009 - 11.5% (24 HR in 559 AB) Read the rest of this entry »

Mark Reynolds is a player who, in my opinion, has regression written all over him.  He’s coming off a tremendous season, to say the least, but how can we expect him to repeat this line:

578 At Bats
.260 Batting Average (150 Hits)
44 Home Runs
102 RBI
98 Runs
24 Stolen Bases
.349 On Base Percentage
.543 Slugging Percentage
.341 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Let’s take a look at the first and most obvious problem, the average.  He could just as easily hit .230 as he repeats a .260 average again.  When you strike out 38.6% of the time (and 37.5% for his career), you need to get extremely lucky to maintain a usable average.

It’s easy to say, when you hit 44 HR, you don’t need as much luck as normal and that is true.  Balls leaving the ballpark are not in play, but I wouldn’t expect him to be able to replicate the power he posted in ‘09.

Last season he saw his HR/FB rise to 26.0%, after being at 18.2% in ‘08.  That mark led the league, ahead of Ryan Howard (25.4%), Carlos Pena (23.8%) and Prince Fielder (23.1%).  Those were the only three other players to post marks above 23% in ‘09.  Until he proves that he can repeat that level, you just can’t expect it.  I’d look for him to be somewhere in-between his ‘08 and ‘09 marks. Read the rest of this entry »

It has been some time since I have updated my dynasty rankings, so let’s get to it.  The catching position has some tremendous young options (like Matt Wieters & Carlos Santana) who not only should be top options for years to come, but could be tremendous in 2010.  Then there are aging veterans (like Jorge Posada), who you don’t know how much longer they have left.  How do we put it together?  Let’s take a look at how I currently have them ranked:

1. Joe Mauer - Minnesota Twins
2. Brian McCann - Atlanta Braves
3. Victor Martinez - Boston Red Sox
4. Matt Wieters - Baltimore Orioles
5. Miguel Montero - Arizona Diamondbacks
6. Kurt Suzuki - Oakland Athletics
7. Ryan Doumit - Pittsburgh Pirates
8. Geovany Soto - Chicago Cubs
9. Jorge Posada - New York Yankees
10. Carlos Santana - Cleveland Indians Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve been talking about it a lot in the past week, especially in deciding whether to draft someone like Carl Crawford early on or waiting on speed until the later rounds (after Round 18).  This year it seems like you can easily find some stolen base options late in your draft, doesn’t it?  Let’s take a look at five players that are worth looking at who I am projecting to have at least 30 stolen bases for in 2010:

Juan Pierre - Chicago White Sox
He is finally freed from being a part-time player with the Dodgers.  He now slides into the leadoff spot for the White Sox, where he has the potential to thrive.  He has a ton of speed, which he has shown off at every opportunity.  Over the past two seasons he’s has 755 AB, stealing a total of 70 bases.  From 2001-2007, when he was playing everyday, his worst year saw him steal 45 bases.  He’s stolen 57 or more bases (best year was 65) four different times.

Let’s not be mistaken, however, because Pierre has plenty of shortcomings.  If you want to get a little bit of power from your speed option, he’s not your man.  His career high is three home runs. Read the rest of this entry »

The first update to the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (available for $5) was sent out to subscribers today.  The guide, which is in an Excel Format (or pdf upon request) now includes:

• Top 300 Players
• Over 570 Player Projections
• Expanded Rankings (i.e. Top 30 Catchers, Top 100 Starting Pitchers)
• Ages for every player projected as of 4/1/10
• The Rotoprofessor’s quick take on every player projected
• Auction Values
• Projected lineups and rotations
• As a special bonus, in mid-February you will receive a Top 50 Prospects for 2010 list (on the website, I will be releasing a Top 20 list)
• Updates every 2-3 weeks

Remember, this draft guide is not a replacement to the website.  Instead, it is a supplement to it.  In fact, if there is a player that I’ve done an article on their name will be linked back to the website so you can easily access those articles for more in depth information on any player.

If there is any player who is not included in the original draft guide that you would like to see added, please make the suggestion and I will do my best to include them in the next revision.

This is your chance to have all of the information you need to thrive in your fantasy leagues in 2010.  Place your order now and immediately start reaping the benefits!