Brandon Morrow is a name we have all heard about in recent years.  Whether it was the potential of being a lights out closer in Seattle early in his career or a blow away strikeout pitcher in Toronto, there has always been intrigue surrounding him from a fantasy perspective.

While the Mariners started his transition back to the rotation, the Toronto Blue Jays have given him his true opportunity to shine in the role.  He has exclusively been a starting pitcher since joining the team prior to the 2010 season, so should fantasy owners be prepared to reap the benefits of their patience?  Before we get started, let’s take a look at what he accomplished in his second full season as a starting pitcher:

11 Wins
179.1 Innings
4.72 ERA
1.29 WHIP
203 Strikeouts (10.19 K/9)
69 Walks (3.46 BB/9)
.299 BABIP

The 27-year old has struck out 381 batters in 325.1 innings over the past two seasons, so there should be no doubt about his ability to generate swings and misses.  Armed with a fastball that has averaged over 93 mph the past two seasons, he will help to buoy fantasy owners in this regard. Read the rest of this entry »

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Edwin Jackson landed in Washington today, giving the team its second new starting pitcher (they also traded for Gio Gonzalez) of the offseason and a glut on the Major League roster.  It’s an enviable position for any franchise, as their rotation now looks as follows:

1. Stephen Strasburg
2. Gio Gonzalez
3. Edwin Jackson
4. Jordan Zimmermann
5. Chin-Ming Wang
6. John Lannan
7. Ross Detwiler

Clearly something is going to have to give, with Lannan losing his arbitration case (though he will still earn $5 million in ’12) and Detwiler being out of options.  So, clearly the move has fantasy ramifications.  Let’s take a look.

Edwin Jackson
He has not had his finest years in the National League, including a 5.16 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 134.1 IP with the Diamondbacks in 2010.  He split time between the White Sox and Cardinals in 2011, combining for a 3.79 ERA and 1.44 WHIP (including a 1.46 WHIP over 78.0 IP in St. Louis). Read the rest of this entry »

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There are a lot of reasons that people may suggest not drafting a player.  It could be based on injuries (both a high risk for one or the recovery of a previous one), potential loss of playing time, diminishing performance or various things in between.  Let’s take a look at five second basemen I likely won’t be drafting in 2012:

Dustin Ackley – Seattle Mariners
He is a highly touted youngster and I will definitely be talking about him in depth as we progress throughout the offseason.  The question is, in yearly formats, is this going to be the season that he emerges as a must use option?

There are actually a few factors working against him:

• He plays in a pitcher’s park, so his offensive upside is immediately limited
• The lineup is weak, even with the addition of Jesus Montero
• He actually doesn’t have much power or speed potential Read the rest of this entry »

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The first update of the 2012 Rotoprofessor Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide has officially been released!  If you have already ordered the guide and not received it, please let me know via e-mail (eric.stashin@gmail.com).  As always, you will then receive updates about every two-to-three weeks from the release date until the start of the season.

I have added a column labeled “Projected Round” to the Top 300, which is based on the current ADP from around the internet (and will be updated throughout the draft season).  This should help you identify the players who I feel are great bargains (i.e. someone who I have ranked at #40 but is being drafted around rounds 6-9) or those who are being overdrafted (i.e. someone who I have ranked at #77 but is being drafted around rounds 3-5).  Keep in mind that the rounds listed are a rough estimate and can vary wildly from draft-to-draft.  Also included:

• Over 500 player projections (more to come)
• The Rotoprofessor’s quick take on every player projected
• Expanded Rankings (i.e. Top 30 Catchers, Top 100 Starting Pitchers)
• Top 300 Overall
• Projected lineups and rotations
• Top 50 Prospects for 2012 list (on the website, I will only be releasing a Top 20 list)
• Top 5 Prospects for 2012 by team (New for 2012)
• Auction Values (including NL/AL-Only)
• Multiple Position Eligibility Chart
• And more

This season I wanted to do something a little bit different for those who support Rotoprofessor and who are purchasing the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide. So, as a reward, anyone who purchases the guide prior to March 15 will be entered into a very special contest where one randomly selected purchaser will win an autographed Michael Pineda baseball (authenticated by MLB). There is nothing that you need to do but buy the guide and cross your fingers that you win! The winner will be picked on March 15th and will be notified via e-mail. If I don’t hear back within 24 hours, a new winner will be picked. Shipment MAY be delayed a few days if my wife has our baby boy earlier than expected.

You can order the guide now for just $6. Please allow up to 24 hours for delivery via e-mail.

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In this new series of articles we are going to give a quick look at players who may want to target late in your draft (an ADP of 216.00 or higher, meaning they will be available after Round 18).  Let’s kick things off with Jose Tabata.

Current ADP (according to Mock Draft Central) – 223.65

2011 Statistics – .266, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 53 R, 16 SB in 334 AB

Thoughts:
If you are looking for HR or RBI, Jose Tabata is not the player for you.  Over 1,907 minor league AB he hit a grand total of 29 HR (and has added just 8 HR in 739 AB in the Major Leagues).

What Tabata does bring to the table is speed, the potential to score runs and a solid average.  The numbers from 2011 do not fully tell the story, as he was limited by injuries (including a quad injury) throughout the year.  However, he’s shown off his stolen base ability before (25 SB in 31 attempts over 224 AB at Triple-A in ’10) and should be given the opportunity to run in 2012. Read the rest of this entry »

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Curtis Granderson not only had one of the best seasons in baseball in 2011, but no one could’ve predicted the numbers he was going to produce.  There’s a difference between expecting an impressive season and expecting this:

583 At Bats
.262 Batting Average (153 Hits)
41 Home Runs
119 RBI
136 Runs
25 Stolen Bases
.364 On Base Percentage
.552 Slugging Percentage
.295 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The numbers were off the charts and before we point to Yankee Stadium as the reason for his success, it was the furthest thing from the truth.  Just look at his home/road splits:

• Home – .262, 21 HR, 62 RBI, 66 R and 12 SB in 279 AB
• Road – .263, 20 HR, 57 RBI, 70 R and 13 SB in 304 AB

Are the home numbers marginally better since they came in 25 fewer AB?  Sure, but would anyone spit on those road numbers?  He was dominant regardless of where he played. Read the rest of this entry »

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Likely Opening Day Closer – Chris Perez
Perez should be considered one of the riskiest closing options for fantasy owners in my mind.  I know the overall numbers in 2011 were fine (3.32 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 36 SV), but the underlying numbers are eye opening.

Granted, we don’t look at luck as much with relief pitchers due to the small sample sizes but are we really to believe his .234 BABIP?  If everything else remains equal, a decrease in the luck department will cause his other numbers to implode.

You then look at his control, which is borderline at best.  He posted a 3.92 BB/9 last season, but over his minor league career he posted a 5.96 mark.  I’m not about to say that he is going to regress back to his awful control, but he easily could regress in this regard and at a huge expense to his value.

Over his minor league career Perez posted an 11.99 K/9 yet in 2011 he was at a miniscule 5.88.  His fastball, which had been sitting around 94.5 to 95.0 mph in prior seasons, was down to 93.4 mph last season.  Is that enough to represent such a dramatic drop in his strikeout rate?  It is debatable, but the numbers cannot be ignored.  The fact of the matter is that there was only one month that he posted a K/9 higher than 6.75 and that was just 7.45 in June. Read the rest of this entry »

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We all know that third base is among the shallowest positions in fantasy sports.  Even with a few youngsters joining the mix (most notably Brett Lawrie), there is still a tremendous amount of risk involved in many of the options (i.e. Alex Rodriguez and Kevin Youkilis).  Let’s take a look at how things currently stand as we head into the season:

1. Jose Bautista – Toronto Blue Jays
2. Evan Longoria – Tampa Bay Rays
3. Adrian Beltre – Texas Rangers
4. David Wright – New York Mets
5. Ryan Zimmerman – Washington Nationals
6. Pablo Sandoval – San Francisco Giants
7. Brett Lawrie – Toronto Blue Jays
8. Aramis Ramirez – Milwaukee Brewers
9. Kevin Youkilis – Boston Red Sox
10. Michael Young – Texas Rangers
11. Alex Rodriguez – New York Yankees
12. Emilio Bonifacio – Miami Marlins Read the rest of this entry »

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With Prince Fielder now residing in Detroit the Brewers are currently left to open the year with Mat Gamel as their starting first baseman (barring another move).  Despite the fact that they may be without Ryan Braun for the first 50 games of the season there have been rumblings that Corey Hart could see time at first base.  It’s hard to imagine the team further weakening their outfield, but you never really know.

So, with the potential for dual eligibility, let’s take a look to see if it adds anything to his fantasy value.

In 2011 Hart hit .285 with 26 HR, 63 RBI, 80 R and 7 SB over 492 AB (130 games).  However, before we just use those numbers for our analysis, there are a few things to keep in mind:

1. Hart spent 256 AB hitting in the leadoff spot in 2011.  With no Fielder and potentially no Braun, there’s no way that continues.
2. Hart has played over 145 games in a season just once in his career (157 games in 2008)

For arguments sake let’s assume that he can stay relatively healthy and play 145 games in 2012.  If that happens or not remains to be seen, but we can all hope can’t we? Read the rest of this entry »

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by Will Overton

It has been an up and down three years for Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval burst onto the scene in 2009 hitting .330 with 25 homeruns. With expectations way up for the 2010 season Sandoval was a big disappointment, playing a full season but only managing to hit .268 with 13 homeruns.

Wondering what one could expect Sandoval’s draft position was all over the place last season, but he responded with a season similar to his 2009 campaign. Sandoval put up the following numbers in 2011: 

426 at-bats
.315 batting average
55 runs scored
23 homeruns
70 runs batted in
.320 batting average on balls in play

So now Sandoval is a borderline top 50 pick who could go in any round from 4 – 7. That fear of regression is still there since we’re only a year removed from his last disappointment. However I think Sandoval has turned a corner and his days of letdowns are over. Read the rest of this entry »

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