by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

It would appear likely that Erasmo Ramirez will soon be arriving in the Seattle Mariners rotation.  The team clearly has a need, Ramirez pitched well over 59.0 innings in 2012 (3.36 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) and he has looked even better during his rehab appearances (1.71 ERA, 26 K, 7 BB over 31.2 IP).

It all comes together as a no-brainer player to add, doesn’t it?  Possibly, but we don’t want to be too hasty.

Let’s keep in mind that there was an awful lot of luck involved in his Major League numbers, especially while working as a starting pitcher.  He made 8 starts (47.0 IP), which yielded a 3.64 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.  However, we have to keep in mind that opponents did hit him hard (22.3% line drive rate), yet didn’t have much success (.250 BABIP).

A 59.0% strand rate does help to balance out the luck metrics, but the line drive rate is something that needs to be considered.

Read the rest of this entry »

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by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The theory is generally buy low and sell high, isn’t it?  Sometimes, however, that’s just not the way how things work out.  Sometimes we get saddled with a dud, whether it is a low-end flier or a player we thought highly of entering the season. While patience is often a virtue, sometimes we have to just cut bait and move on.  Let’s take a look at two players that fantasy owners may want to consider moving on from:

Yovani Gallardo – Milwaukee Brewers
He has always been inconsistent and had moments of struggling with his control, but 2013 has seen new issues arise:

1) His velocity is down. In 2011 he averaged 92.7 mph on his fastball. Last season he was at 91.8 mph. So far this season? He’s at 90.6 mph.

Read the rest of this entry »

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by Christopher Cosgrove

Pitchers owned the night on Tuesday, with 4 double-digit strikeout showings, only one team in the league scoring double-digit runs and a scoreboard that could have been confused with the NHL’s.  Let’s take a look at the performances of some familiar aces, new faces, and under the radar streaming options in today’s Around the Majors:

• Matt Cain was dominant Tuesday night, striking out 10 and allowing just 2 ER on 6 H and 0 BB over 7 IP at AT&T Park.  Over his last 3 starts (20.2 IP), Cain sports a sparkling 1.30 ERA and 0.82 WHIP with 17 K.  Hopefully you were able to buy low a few weeks ago; that window is now boarded up.
• Daniel Nava’s solo homer (10) off Jake Odorizzi was his 65^th hit of the year, tying his career high for a single season.  The 30 year old has been a fantasy revelation this season, batting .286 with 42 R, 10 HR and 45 RBI, and may finally be shedding the ‘guy on my team who is doing great but I feel like he’ll probably start to fade and I wish he’d just get it over with’ stigma.  Nava struggled over the second half of 2012, hitting just .188 over 96 ABs, but has such a limited sample size of major league service time that we might as well throw that stat out and see how far he can take us. Read the rest of this entry »

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by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Entering play today Josh Hamilton owns one of the highest O-Swing% in the game, at 40.6%. Before we jump to the conclusion that he’s simply swinging at bad pitches and that’s why he’s struggling (at least prior to yesterday’s breakout performance), keep in mind his numbers te previous two years in Texas:

• 2011 – 41.0%
• 2012 – 45.4%

It’s also not necessarily that he’s making worse contact on those swings, considering his 54.3% O-Contact% is actually better than his 52.1% mark from a year ago. Remember, he hit .285 overall last season, a number any owner would love to have right about now.

So what is the problem? It’s actually two-fold, with his decline in power and basic poor luck.

Read the rest of this entry »

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by Ray Kuhn

Fantasy baseball success is all about maximizing value and timing. You want to grab players at the right point on their trajectory upward and then part ways when they begin to trend downward. Of course that harder said than done. Every owner in your league should be trying to do the same exact thing (possibly with the same players), complicating matters. All that means is that you have to look that much harder to find value.

In some cases that means keeping your eyes out for rising prospects, potentially grabbing them a week or two early. Then, when you find success with your “flash in the pan” additions, make sure that you don’t get too greedy and let them over stay their welcome in your lineup.

Here are 3 players whose stock I think is rising this week, and 3 whose stock I think is falling.

3 Up:

1. Josh Rutledge, SS, Colorado Rockies. Rutledge started the season off as a popular sleeper for the Rockies. Instead, the power/speed infielder struggled, hitting .242, before being sent down to the minors on May 20. However he did show some of the power/speed that was expected of him with five home runs to go with five stolen bases and 13 RBI. Read the rest of this entry »

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by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The Pittsburgh Pirates are off to another great start, but can they actually sustain it this year?  Time will tell, but good teams tend to lead to players outperforming their ability.  In turn, that means the potential for the savvy fantasy owner to cash in.  Two of the better producing Pirates, Jeff Locke & Starling Marte, potentially fall into this class.  Let’s take a look at each player to try and determine if we should hold onto them or try to sell high (all stats are through Sunday, June 16):

Jeff Locke – Starting Pitcher
A preseason favorite here at Rotoprofessor, Locke has delivered in the early going with a 2.19 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. While the numbers are great, that doesn’t mean that he is a pitcher worth holding onto for much longer.

One of the selling points for Locke heading into the season was his strikeout potential, something that hasn’t been there thus far overall (6.56 overall K/9). So far in June he does own an 8.84 mark, however, with 18 K over 18.1 IP. If he can maintain that type of number, or even be reasonably close, our view of him will change dramatically.

Read the rest of this entry »

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by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Josh Johnson looked like the ace starting pitcher everyone envisions.  Dan Haren imploded again, an outing that could finally send fantasy owners fleeing from him.  Nelson Cruz impressed, but is it time to cut bait on him?  Let’s take a look at these stories and all the rest from yesterday’s games:

• Josh Johnson took a no decision, but that should not take anything away from his impressive performance against the Rockies.  Over 7.1 IP he allowed 0 ER on 5 H and 2 BB, striking out 10.  It’s only the second time he’s had as many as 8 K this season and the first time he’s had as many as 10 K in a game since September 4, 2010 (12 K against the Braves).  We know injuries have been a major problem and obviously he isn’t going to rack up quite this many strikeouts very often, but he does have more upside than he’s shown thus far.  He entered the day with a .337 BABIP, 69.6% strand rate and 14.7% HR/FB (7.5% career rate), showing that there is the potential for continued better results.  He may not put up his NL numbers, but he does have the potential to be a viable option in all formats.
• It wasn’t a dominant performance for Max Scherzer, though he certainly got the job done.  He allowed 1 ER on 7 H and 2 BB, striking out 10, over 6.0 innings of work against the Orioles.  As we have been saying all year, consistency was what Scherzer has always lacked.  You can argue that his .243 BABIP is on the lucky side (20.0% line drive rate), but with a 10.56 K/9 and 2.19 BB/9 rate entering the day, his success is going to continue. Read the rest of this entry »

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by Steven Grindstaff

One name on the waiver wire that has been trending recently is Dillon Gee.  With the threat of being removed from the rotation Gee has done nothing but dominate over the last few weeks (2-2, 4.76 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 10.8 K/9, 1.59 BB/9), helping to force the Mets into a six-man rotation for now.. At the other end of the spectrum, Jon Lester is a stud but has been pitching like a bum over the last few weeks (1-3, 6.08 ERA, 5.41 FIP, 6.57 K/9, 4.38 BB/9).  Owners are expecting much more from Lester and hope he can get on track and flash his ace potential.  Let’s dig a little deeper and get the real scoop on these two pitchers (all stats are through June 13).

Dillon Gee, New York Mets
4-6, 12 GS, 64 IP, 5.20 ERA, 4.17 FIP

As it stands right now, Dillon Gee’s rotation spot is safe and the Mets will use a six-man rotation, but it wasn’t long ago that Gee was the pitcher who was going to be moved to the bullpen.  This must have been the spark Gee needed to get back on track and show why he was a sleeper preseason.  News also broke earlier this week that Gee has been dealing with an injury which has had a negative impact on his stats so far.  Maybe an extra day of rest between starts will help Gee heal up and be a solid member of the rotation. Read the rest of this entry »

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There has been a lot of debate regarding Springer, both here on Rotoprofessor and elsewhere. With that in mind I wanted to take an in depth look at one of the Astros top prospects to try and figure out exactly what we have and his potential upside (all stats are through Saturday, June 15).

There is no doubting his ability to hit for power or his speed. Those skills are visibly by the numbers he’s posted both this season (18 HR/19 SB) and last (24 HR/31 SB). No one can legitimately express much concern here, outside of possibly his 36.7% HR/OFB rate this far this season.

Is it inflated? Absolutely.

Is he a 40+ HR hitter? Not likely.

That said, he obviously has the potentially to routinely go 20-25 HR with 30+ SB, if not better.

Read the rest of this entry »

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by Will Overton

It’s always kind of fun to see the next wave of baseball players on display, yesterday we go to see some of them steal the show. Julio Teheran and Gerrit Cole looked good and Stephen Strasburg came off the DL and didn’t seem to show many signs of rust either. We also had Nick Markakis and Chien-Ming Wang reminding us that the old guys deserve some love as well.

I’ve got the rundown on all the top fantasy baseball storylines of the day:

• If I told you before the season that Josh Reddick would hit his 3^rd HR of the season on June 16^th in his 43^rd game you’d have thought I was crazy. Here we are though. There were signs pointing to an average regression, but the power drop off is rather surprising. Reddick is hitting .255 in June so that’s an improvement, but yesterday was still his first HR of the month.
• No slowing down Adam Lind right now, with another big game yesterday. Lind was 3 – 5 yesterday with his second homerun in as many days and three more runs knocked in. He’s now got seven hits in his last three games and he’s hitting .423 in June so far. Now the power is picking up to go with the average and Lind is a must own guy. Read the rest of this entry »

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