The Orioles recalled outfielder Xavier Avery, who is helping to fill in for the injured Nolan Reimold.  Is he relevant for fantasy owners, though?  Let’s take a look:

• 22-year old outfielder
• Left-handed hitter
• Drafted in the second round in 2008 (50th overall), before players like Craig Kimbrel, Vance Worley, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Dee Gordon, Anthony Gose & Danny Espinosa
• Prior to the season Baseball America the best athlete in the Orioles’ farm system
• Baseball America ranked him as the team’s #9 prospect prior to the season; mlb.com had him at #6
• Mlb.com described him by saying, “Avery has the tools to be a top-of-the-order catalyst some day. His plus speed should allow him to continue to be a basestealer and be an above-average defensive center fielder. He can swing the bat from the left side of the plate but gets into trouble with his plate discipline and approach, leading to inflated strikeout totals. He worked on that in the Arizona Fall League in 2011 and had some success, a springboard into the 2012 season, during which, the Orioles’ future leadoff hitter got his first call to the big leagues.”
• Big risk to rack up the strikeouts, which will limit his ability to hit for a usable average; 22.8% over minor league career (1,887 AB) and 25.5% over 664 AB at Double-A Read the rest of this entry »

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At this point, while sample sizes are still somewhat small, we can at least start to see who has been incredibly lucky over the first few weeks of the season.  Are these players worth selling?  Let’s take a look at the pitchers with the best strand rates (through Monday) and try to decide who should be sold and who should be held:

1) Johnny Cueto – Cincinnati Reds – 91.5%
He’s opened the year by posting a 1.12 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.  Of course, a lot of that has to do with a lot of luck (.253 BABIP on top of the inflated strand rate).  Considering that opponents are teeing off at a 22.9% line drive rate, does anyone really believe that he can maintain anything close to this type of production?  Throw in a decline in velocity (91.9 mph vs. 93.4 mph in ’11) and little upside in the strikeout department (5.77 K/9 in ’12) and he is a prime sell high candidate.  Hopefully it’s not too late, as he allowed 6 runs (5 earned) over 4.0 innings to the Braves yesterday.

2) Colby Lewis – Texas Rangers – 90.7%
Lewis has pitched to elite control (1.17 BB/9), and, while he is good in that regard, it’s not a number that he would’ve been able to maintain.  While that’s that causes concern, as does the strand rate, Lewis’ ERA is still elevated thanks to a significant number of home runs allowed (11 HR in 46.1 IP).  He has proven to be homer prone before (1.57 HR/9 in ’11), but this is a little out of line.  Assuming he can reduce the home runs allowed, a regression in the strand rate isn’t going to have a major impact.  With a 3.69 ERA currently, you probably can’t sell high on him anyways.  He should keep his value consistent. Read the rest of this entry »

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The 2012 season has been one of the craziest when it comes to closers as no one’s job appears to be safe.  Whether it is due to injury or inability, it seems like there isn’t a day that goes by when a closer isn’t being replaced.  With that in mind, let’s take a look at our most recent closer rankings:

1. Craig Kimbrel – Atlanta Braves (1)
2. Jonathon Papelbon – Philadelphia Phillies (2)
3. Rafael Betancourt – Colorado Rockies (5)
4. Jason Motte – St. Louis Cardinals (4)
5. John Axford – Milwaukee Brewers (3)
6. Jim Johnson – Baltimore Orioles (10)
7. Joel Hanrahan – Pittsburgh Pirates (7)
8. Joe Nathan – Texas Rangers (6)
9. Kenley Jansen – Los Angeles Dodgers (15)
10. Santiago Casilla – San Francisco Giants (16)
11. Sean Marshall – Cincinnati Reds (8)
12. Fernando Rodney – Tampa Bay Rays (11) Read the rest of this entry »

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Fantasy owners have obviously grown concerned over a few of the Top 25 starting pitchers prior to the season.  A few of the most concerning options thus far have been Josh Johnson, Josh Beckett and Tim Lincecum.  With all three on the mound, how did their performances change our outlook?  Let’s take a look at them and all the other major stories from yesterday’s games:

1. Allen Craig – St. Louis Cardinals – Outfielder – How many players are hotter than him right now?  He went 3-4 with 2 RBI yesterday, extending his hitting streak to 7 games.  Over the streak he’s gone 11-25 with 3 HR, 9 RBI and 3 R.  In May he’s gone 19-47 with 5 HR and 18 RBI.  Obviously, it’s hard to imagine him continuing to hit this well, especially when you take into account that he entered play with a .393 BABIP and 38.5% HR/FB.  In other words, now may be the best chance you get to sell high on him.
2. Anthony Bass – San Diego Padres – Starting Pitcher – Bass vs. Stephen Strasburg…  Who would you have picked?  Well, Strasburg struggled (4 ER on 7 H and 2 BB, striking out 5, over 4.0 IP) while Bass excelled (1 ER on 5 H and 1 BB, striking out 7, over 8.0 IP).  Bass has pitched well, with a 2.87 ERA, and considering that he entered the day with a 65.4% strand rate, it’s not due to luck.  The strikeouts may not be for real (45 K over 47.0 IP), considering his 7.45 K/9 over his minor league career, and there’s a good chance people start to hit him a little harder (14.2% line drive rate).  That said, he’s worth buying, just don’t expect many wins. Read the rest of this entry »

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The fact that Scott Rolen is on the DL again should not be very surprising, though I don’t think anyone would’ve expected the talk of this potentially ending his season if not his career.  Not that it matters for fantasy owners as it had become obvious over the first six weeks of the season that he’s just a shell of his former self (.174, 2 HR in 92 AB).  While I wouldn’t completely write him off, it appears that the chance of him making an impact in 2012 is highly unlikely.

The Reds have given Todd Frazier the first shot at replacing Rolen in the lineup.  He’s gotten off to a slow start thus far (1-11 over the past three games), but don’t let that deter you.  He plays in a hitter’s park as part of a deep lineup.  That alone would make him worth considering.

The fact that Frazier has proven capable of handling the bat in the past makes him all the more appealing.  Over parts of the past four seasons at Triple-A (International League) he has hit .261 with 35 HR, 128 RBI, 131 R and 36 SB over 897 AB.  He took that success into his first 112 AB in the Majors in 2011, when he hit 6 HR with 1 SB.  You would think that he has 20/20 potential, something that is extremely rare from a 3B. Read the rest of this entry »

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If you are like me you love looking for the next big pitching prospect.  So far this season it may have paid dividends for you, if you took the plunge on someone like Drew Smyly or more recently Christian Friedrich.  Who may be next in line to make in impact?  Let’s take a look at two possibilities:

Jake Odorizzi – Kansas City Royals – Starting Pitcher
One of the main pieces in the trade that sent Zack Greinke to Milwaukee, Odorizzi could be on the precipice of making an impact in Kansas City.  You could have said that thanks to the struggles in the Kansas City rotation (the only SP to make at least 4 starts and post an ERA below 4.00 is Dan Duffy at 3.90), but the injury to Duffy, who is potentially facing Tommy John surgery, makes his debut even more likely.

Pitching at Double-A, Odorizzi is definitely making his case as he has opened the year going 4-2 with a 3.32 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 47 K over 38.0 innings.  The numbers look even better when you realize that he has allowed just 6 ER over his last 27.1 IP (he had a two start stretch early in the year where he had allowed 8 ER over 5.2 IP) and that the numbers come courtesy of realistic luck metrics (.269 BABIP, 64.3% strand rate). Read the rest of this entry »

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We all know how unpredictable the closer’s role has been thus far in 2012, so let’s take a look at all the news and notes from yesterday’s action:

Closers To Record A Save Yesterday:

• Frank Francisco – New York Mets
• Sean Burnett – Washington Nationals
• Rafael Dolis – Chicago Cubs
• Joel Hanrahan – Pittsburgh Pirates
• Sean Marshall – Cincinnati Reds
• Jonathan Broxton – Kansas City Royals
• Chris Perez – Cleveland Indians
• Addison Reed – Chicago White Sox
• Kenley Jansen – Los Angeles Dodgers
• Santiago Casilla – San Francisco Giants
• Rafael Soriano – New York Yankees

Notable Blown Saves:

• None

Notes:

David Robertson – New York Yankees –According to Sweeny Murti (via Twitter), “Robertson has been unavailable since Saturday with soreness in left side. Will go for MRI Tue.”  While he did blow a save recently, this helps to explain why Rafael Soriano has converted the past two opportunities.  We’ll know more tomorrow, but it’s beginning to look like Soriano will get a chance to entrench himself in the role. Read the rest of this entry »

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by Will Overton

You don’t usually see a Monday with such a full schedule, but we have lots of fantasy baseball stat talk to get this morning after a full slate of games. Here is what you need to know:

1. Christian Friedrich – SP, Colorado Rockies: Two starts for Christian Friedrich and two dominating performances. Friedrich got seven innings of work under his belt allowing just one run on seven hits. More impressively Friedrich walked just one batter and struck out 10. So in two starts Friedrich has 13 IP, 2 ER and 17 K’s. That’s not a bad way to kick start your major league career. I like what I am seeing from Friedrich and I do believe he should grabbed in all deep leagues and considered in standard ones as well. However, don’t let your expectations get too out of control. Friedrich had an ERA of 5.00 in 2010 and 2011 at Double-A before getting his stuff together this year. He also has started against the Padres and Giants, two weak offenses, and both games were on the road. There is still a lot to be proved.
2. Dayan Viciedo – OF, Chicago White Sox: The White Sox promising young outfielder went into last night’s game with a .196 batting average and a lot of questions about how much longer he could go without producing before being demoted. He may have bought himself some time last night. Viciedo was 2 – 3 last night with 1 R, 1 HR and 4 RBI. This was Viciedo’s first multi-hit game in May and his first HR since April 26. Viciedo has real power and so if he gets things going he could hold a lot of value in fantasy leagues, right now though he’s just one of those guys you are stashing in your deep league as you wait for something to change. Maybe last night was the kickstart he needed. Read the rest of this entry »

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The fact that Chase Utley has not yet returned has got to be worrisome for fantasy owners, but there finally appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel.  Todd Zolecki (click here for the article) of mlb.com recently posted the following quote from Utley:

“over the next week or so I’ll be on the field trying to get more ground balls and making some progressions in that area and just trying to get my feet under me as a far as a baseball standpoint goes. I was doing some baseball things in Arizona, but there’s nothing like being with the team and on the field on a daily basis.”

There is a chance that he could be back on the field by the end of May, assuming he goes on a rehab assignment soon (Zolecki tweeted that he could go out as soon as this week).  Is he going to be the player that he once was?  Absolutely not, but that doesn’t mean that he doesn’t have any value. Read the rest of this entry »

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It’s been another wild week around Major League Baseball, as we have seen numerous closers meltdown or be replaced.  Who is going to close for the White Sox?  Who is the best option for the Mets?  Will the Astros be making a move?  Let’s take a look at all the situations around the league:

Houston Astros
There is no questioning who the closer is, as Brett Myers has been impressive (0.77 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 9 SV).  With the Astros in a rebuilding mode, however, does anyone really expect Myers to still be closing out games in Houston come August?  In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising if a contender came calling sooner than that.

So, those in deep formats looking to find saves later in the season should be examining the remainder of the Houston bullpen.  While it’s too early to say with any certainty who the next inline would be, the best bet would be Wilton Lopez or David Carpenter.

Lopez has brought unbelievable control to the bullpen, having not yet walked a batter in 19.2 innings of work.  He is not a big-time strikeout option (14 K), but pinpoint control goes a long way. Read the rest of this entry »

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