2019 Regression Risk: Why Fantasy Owners Shouldn’t Buy Into Trevor Williams’s 2nd Half “Breakout”

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

It seemed like a breakout season for the Pirates’ Trevor Williams, as he was especially good in the second half (1.38 ERA, 1.07 WHIP).  Just how real is the performance, or should it be chalked up to an aberration and be ignored?  First let’s take a look at the overall line:

170.2 IP
14 Wins
3.11 ERA
1.18 WHIP
126 Strikeouts (6.64 K/9)
55 Walks (2.90 BB/9)
40.8% Groundball Rate
.261 BABIP

His first half ERA of 4.36 alone would be a red flag, but as we start digging into the numbers it becomes clearer and clearer.  Just consider that he benefited from a 90.8% strand rate after the All-Star Break, and while he did do a good job of limiting the hard contact all season long (29.3%) his BABIP also seems unsustainable: Read more

Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Could Teoscar Hernandez Develop Into A Viable Option Or Is He One To Ignore?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Teoscar Hernandez has taunted us with his talent in the past, but he never had the true opportunity to fully show it in the Majors.  That finally came with the Blue Jays in ’18, and he again showed signs of being a viable option (though there wasn’t across the board success):

476 At Bats
.239 Batting Average (114 Hits)
22 Home Runs
57 RBI
67 Runs
5 Stolen Bases
.302 On Base Percentage
.468 Slugging Percentage
.313 Batting Average on Balls in Play

While he did hit the ball hard (37.3% Hard%) and showed off some power, his average/plate discipline bring significant questions.  While he wasn’t chasing outside of the strike zone (32.2% O-Swing%), his ability to make consistent contact just wasn’t there. Read more

Pre-Order Rotoprofessor’s 2019 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide For The Special Price Of $6.75 Today!

It’s that time of year again! Sure football season is in full swing and the MLB Playoffs are going strong, but it’s never too early to start planning for 2019. As a loyal Rotoprofessor reader/supporter, we wanted to give you the first opportunity to reserve your copy our 2019 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide!

The price will be increasing this year to a whole $7.75 (I know, inflation). However you currently have the opportunity to pre-order the Draft Guide for $6.75!  This may be the best value you get to help prepare for your fantasy baseball season, so make sure to take advantage of it.

For those who have never experienced the guide, it is delivered through e-mail as an Excel spreadsheet and also includes:

  • Over 500 player projections (including some of the top prospects in the game)
  • Top 400 Overall
  • 2-page cheat sheet, perfect to take to your draft
  • The Rotoprofessor Staff’s quick take on every player projected
  • Expanded Rankings (i.e. Top 30 Catchers, Top 125 Starting Pitchers) for both AVG & OBP formats
  • Top 50 rankings for Corner Infielders & Middle Infielders
  • Projected lineups and rotations
  • Top 50 Prospects for 2019 (Prospects who can make impact in ’19)
  • Top 5 Prospects for 2019 by team (Prospects who can make impact in ’19)
  • Top 40 “New” Dynasty Prospects
  • Auction Values (including NL/AL-Only)
  • Multiple Position Eligibility Chart
  • Closer Chart
  • Top 25 Sleepers for 2019
  • 15 Players Likely to be Overdrafted in 2019

Unlike paper guides our version will be updated every two-to-three weeks, helping you stay as prepared as possible.  The first draft was released on January 18, 2019 and the updates will begin after that.  I want to thank you all for supporting Rotoprofessor and make sure to reserve your copy of the 2019 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide today!

2019 Bust Alert: Will Dereck Rodriguez Build On His 2018 Success… Don’t Be So Sure

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Entering the season with playoff aspirations, 2018 was a huge disappointment for the San Francisco Giants.  It has led to changes at the top, and there certainly will be a trickle down effect to the talent on the field.  One of the few things we know, though, is that many will view Dereck Rodriguez (the son of Hall of Famer Ivan Rodriguez) as a key piece to the team’s future.  That makes sense, given these numbers as a rookie:

118.1 IP
6 Wins
2.81 ERA
1.13 WHIP
89 Strikeouts (6.77 K/9)
36 Walks (2.74 BB/9)
39.5% Groundball Rate
.257 BABIP

Something we’ve all learned is that sometimes numbers can be deceiving, and while it was a strong year on the surface when you start peeling back the layers the concerns mount quickly.  While that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll fall off a cliff, that’s a scenario that we can’t rule out so easily. Read more

2018 Leaders Review: Top 10 September SwStr%: Regression Risks Emerge (Javier Baez, David Dahl & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We often say that September results are not indicative of what the future holds, considering that September callups help to skew the competition level.  At the same time we’ve seen it before where a late season flourish helps to point towards future success.  With that in mind, let’s take a look at the Top 10 swinging strike rates among hitters over the final month of the season to see if there are any concerns arising (especially since the pitching may not necessarily be up to typical standards):

1. Daniel PalkaChicago White Sox19.7%
2. Javier BaezChicago Cubs19.2%
3.Randal GrichukToronto Blue Jays18.1%
4.Adalberto MondesiKansas City Royals18.0%
5.Khris DavisOakland A's17.9%
6.Brandon LoweTampa Bay Rays17.8%
7.David DahlColorado Rockies16.9%
8.Scott ScheblerCincinnati Reds16.7%
9t.Stephen PiscottyOakland A's16.3%
9t.Kris BryantChicago Cubs16.3%

There are a lot of interesting names on these rankings, but let’s take a look at three of the most interesting ones: Read more

2019 Projection: Will Rhys Hoskins Rebound From His Perceived “Disappointing” 2018?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

After a monster 2017 debut (.259 with 18 HR and 48 RBI over 50 games) fantasy owners had high expectations for Rhys Hoskins’ 2018 campaign.  While he wasn’t completely useless, it’s easy to dub him as a disappointment as he fell well short of expectations.  Just how far short?  Let’s look at the numbers:

558 At Bats
.246 Batting Average (137 Hits)
34 Home Runs
96 RBI
89 Runs
5 Stolen Bases
.354 On Base Percentage
.496 Slugging Percentage
.272 Batting Average on Balls in Play

It wasn’t a poor approach that had a negative influence.  In fact for a power hitter his underlying numbers are impressive, with a 7.9% SwStr% and 22.8% O-Swing%, and you can argue that he has more upside than his 22.7% strikeout rate and 13.2% walk rate.  So what caused the “disappointing” campaign?  There are two key numbers: Read more