Stock Report: First Base Edition: Can Domonic Smith Be Trusted & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Buy low…  Sell high…  It’s an easy philosophy, in theory, but not always one that is followed by the masses.  Knowing whose value is on the rise and whose is falling is one of the biggest keys, so let’s take a look at a few first base eligible players and try to determine who we can trust and who could disappoint moving forward:

 

Freddie Freeman – Atlanta Braves
It’s not that he hasn’t been producing since returning from the DL (broken wrist), but the power is down:

  • Pre-Injury – HR every 9.6 AB
  • Post-Injury – HR every 20.6 AB

We are always concerned about a wrist injury, and this quote courtesy of David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution (click here for the article) puts further doubt: Read more

Bullpen Notes: August 22, 2017: Next Up In KC, Potential Change In MIA/MIN & More

Are you following @Rotoprofessor on Twitter? If not you should be, as we Tweet out all the important bullpen notes every morning from the previous day’s games. Who is in jeopardy of losing their job? Who is worth the speculative add? Here are this morning tweets (Please note we won’t be posting these on the website every day, so make sure you follow @Rotoprofessor to ensure you don’t miss a thing):

Read more

10 Important Stories From 08/22/17 Box Scores: Time To Give Up On Nola Or Taillon, Giolito Debuts & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Masahiro Tanaka returned from the DL for a solid start, allowing 3 ER on 6 H and 0 BB, striking out 4, over 7.0 IP to defeat the Tigers.  Chris Archer was strong against the Blue Jays, allowing 1 ER on 5 H and 1 BB, striking out 10, over 6.0 IP and the bullpen was able to hold on and get him the W.  Gary Sanchez continued to rake, going 3-6 with 2 HR, 4 RBI and 2 R.  What else happened on the field that we need to know about?  Let’s take a look:

 

1) More subpar results from Jameson Taillon…
After it appeared like he had righted the ship, Taillon has now struggled in each of his last two starts.  Yesterday it was a tough matchup (against the Dodgers), but he still allowed 5 ER on 5 H and 5 BB, striking out 1, over 5.0 IP (9 ER over his past 10.0 IP).  He was generating groundballs (10 groundballs vs. 3 fly balls), but he barely through 50% of his pitches for strikes (55 of 101) and wasn’t getting enough swings and misses (6).  While he continues to show all the skills on most nights, he now owns an 8.24 ERA in the second half making him tough to trust in the short-term.  Keep him stashed for now. Read more

The Regression Risk: Identifying Three Pitchers Who Could Ultimately Sink Your Season

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We all know that it’s easy to become infatuated with productive players, especially if they have continued to help your team at this late stage of the season.  That said, it doesn’t mean that they still don’t carry significant risk.  Let’s take a look at a few pitchers who have been fantasy All-Stars over the first few months, but could ultimately help to cost you your title down the stretch:

 

Lance Lynn – St. Louis Cardinals
Key Stats: .232 BABIP, 82.0% strand rate

He’s been a great story, after missing all of 2016, as he’s posted a 3.05 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 144.2 IP.  Of course the luck metrics scream of a regression, and considering the missed time would it really be a surprise to see him start to tire at some point down the stretch? Read more

10 Important Stories From 08/21/17 Box Scores: Benintendi for Rookie of the Year, Rodon an Asset, & More

by Ray Kuhn

Just because there was a reduced schedule of games, although we did have a double-header in Chicago start two hours than normal to mess everyone up, we had yet another busy night of action around baseball. At this point in the season, either you are invested in every pitch as you compete for a fantasy title, or you are busy watching pre-season football. Even if you fall into the latter camp, you still should at least be abreast of what is going on, as it could shape the 2018 season. Let’s take a look at some of the performances that stood out from Monday’s action:

1) Is Rodon Becoming an Asset…

Carlos Rodon was one of the pitchers we looked at over the weekend as he was making two starts this week, and his first came last night against the Twins. The southpaw didn’t disappoint as he picked up his second victory of the season while allowing two runs in 6.1 innings of work. Rodon kept the base runners to a minimum, four hits and three walks, as he struck out nine batters and lowered his ERA to 3.88. That now gives Rodon 68 strikeouts in 60.1 innings, and while his WHIP is 1.36, Rodon’s xFIP is 3.79, so you could argue that his ERA is right where it should be. However, the 55 hits Rodon has allowed so far this season is something he will need to improve upon, although so far in August it is down to 24 hits in 29.1 innings. Read more

Will Paul DeJong Follow The Trevor Story Path Of Fantasy Hero To Fantasy Zero?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

A year ago Trevor Story was a rookie shortstop who set the baseball world on fire.  This year similar accolades are being bestowed upon Cardinals’ rookie Paul DeJong, who entered the weekend hitting .305 with 19 HR and 46 RBI over his first 279 PA in the Majors.  Could he face a similar fate to that of Story, who has gone from fantasy hero to fantasy zero in the matter of months?

It’s a comparison that’s worth exploring, so let’s take a look.  First, some of the underlying metrics:

Player
Strikeout Rate
SwStr%
Line Drive Rate
BABIP
Fly Ball Rate
HR/FB
Story (2016)31.3%12.5%23.6%.34347.1%23.7%
DeJong (2017)30.5%14.6%21.4%.38042.3%24.7%

It’s not hard to see some similarities, as both players struggled with strikeouts, benefited from a bit of luck and also posted somewhat bloated HR/FB.  Story had the benefit of playing half his games in Coors Field, however, something that DeJong does not. Read more