by Steven Grindstaff

Expectations entering 2013 were significantly high for Cole Hamels, Kris Medlen and Fernando Rodney.  With a quarter of the season gone, many of us are left scratching our heads, wondering what has gone wrong.  Will these struggling arms continue down the road of mediocrity or will they rebound to meet the high expectations of fantasy owners?

Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
1-6, 4.61 ERA, 9 GS, 56.2 IP, 7.46 K/9, 3.81 BB/9
Cole Hamels won 31 games over the past two seasons and surpassed Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee as the ace of the Phillies staff.  So to say big things were expected of Hamels may be an understatement.  With a 1-6 record and an ERA approaching 5, fantasy owners have got to be extremely disappointed in what they’ve seen so far.

A major concern has to be the strikeouts and control issues.  His K/9 of 7.46 is down from a career mark of 8.50 K/9.  In addition, his BB/9 of 3.81 is elevated above his career BB/9 of 2.31.  He has also walked 4+ in three separate games this season.  A LOB rate of 73.7 (career 76.9%) signifies some poor luck, which doesn’t help with an elevated walk rate.  Couple that with a HR/FB of 14.8% (career 11.7%), it’s no wonder Hamels has an ERA of 4.61.

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Matt Cain has long proven to be an ace on the mound, though his start to 2013 has been perplexing to say the least. He is 3-2 and owns a respectable 1.21 WHIP (though he hasn’t been above 1.08 the past three seasons), but also has been pounded to the tune of a 5.43 ERA. Is it an aberration? Sould we expect the problems to contine? Let’s take a look.

There is nothing concerning with his strikeouts (7.83) or velocity (90.9 mph compared 91.2 mph each of the previous two seasons). His walk rate is up compared to 2012 (2.72 vs. 2.09), but he was at 2.46 and 2.56 the previous two seasons.  Again, there are no red flags there.

After that, the concerns do start to mount a little bit. For the second straight season his line drive rate is elevated (21.3%), yet his BABIP is below average (.242 vs. league average of .291). Can we really expect him to continue to be this lucky? It’s not impossible, but it also is hard to bank on it.

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We had poor outings from pitchers like Jeremy Hellickson and Madison Bumgarner.  We had impressive performances from pitchers like Matt Harvey and Madison Bumgarner.  There were big nights at the plate from Paul Goldschmidt, Adam LaRoche and others.  In other words, we got a little bit of everything last night.  Let’s take a look at all the stories:

• What is there to say about Matt Harvey that hasn’t already been said?  Like with many of the elite pitchers in the game, Harvey showed the ability to struggle early (2 ER on 3 H in the first inning), but settle in and have a dominant performance.  He ultimately went 7.1 innings allowing 2 ER on 5 H and 0 BB, striking out 6, to improve to 5-0 with a 1.55 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and 68 K on the season.  As we’ve said before, if you read his quotes and watch him on the mound he appears to have all the intangibles for success.
• When two teams combine for 22 runs and 30 hits there are two different ways to look at it.  Was it good hitting or terrible pitching?  The truth is that it probably was somewhere in between, but that doesn’t bring solace to Jeremy Hellickson owners.  Maybe the Rays tried to push him too far, but he finished allowing 8 ER on 10 H and 1 BB, striking out 4, over 7.2 IP to raise his ERA to 5.82.  The strikeouts are up (7.44 K/9), but so is his HR/9 (1.62) and his strand rate is below average (62.7%).  Obviously we would expect that last number to change, but it does go to show what happens when his strand rate (82.0% and 82.7% the prior two years) goes the other way.  Read the rest of this entry »

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by Dave De Wit

Pitching is a young man’s game. While former aces like Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum fade away, young studs like Matt Harvey, Shelby Miller and even Jose Fernandez are looking to take their places. Meanwhile, a handful of other ace hopefuls wait to get called up to the majors. One of those talented young arms that could get called upon soon is Gerrit Cole.

Selected first overall in the 2011 draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates, Cole has made many scouts and prospect writers swoon over his incredible velocity and above-average secondary pitches.  Only his spotty control and the surprisingly good Pirates’ rotation have kept Cole from the majors to this point, but with his recently improved control a call-up may be imminent.

Pittsburgh sees themselves as contenders again this year, and, since they missed out on the playoffs the last two years despite good starts, they will bring up Cole if they think he gives them a better chance to win now. If he does get called up, Cole has the stuff to be a pitcher to own in 12 team mixed leagues and deeper because of his great strikeout potential and favorable home ballpark in Pittsburgh.

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Ranking players on what they have done so far isn’t too much help for fantasy owners, is it?  While it’s great to know what someone has done, what we care about more is where we think they are heading.  While these rankings do take a players performance to date into account, where we think they are going is weighted much more into the equation.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at our current Top 15 catchers (all stats are through May 15):

1) Buster Posey – San Francisco Giants (1)
The question with Posey is why is his line drive rate down substantially (13.0% as compared to a 24.6% mark in ’12)?  Before we get too upset, he had a poor rate last May (13.9%), so there really is no reason to be concerned about him at this point.  He’s the elite catcher in the game and we all know it.

2) Carlos Santana – Cleveland Indians (2)
The ranking was aggressive in the preseason, but he has backed it up thus far.  He continues to control the strike zone (19.0% strikeout rate vs. 15.5% walk rate) and while his BABIP should fall some (.365) he’s a middle of the order bat who plays nearly every day (sees time at 1B/DH) and can hit for power and average.  There’s an awful lot to like.

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We saw Justin Verlander completely implode.  We saw Matt Cain get beaten down by the long ball once again.  We saw Fernando Rodney struggle with his control, blowing his third save of the season.  Let’s take a look at these stories and all the rest from yesterday’s games:

• It has been a rough season for Jonathan Niese, though could yesterday have marked a turning point?  He posted a strong outing against the St. Louis Cardinals, allowing 2 ER on 6 H and 2 BB over 7.1 IP.  He generated a significant amount of groundballs (14) and was throwing strikes (76 of 113).  The problem was that he struck out just 3, giving him 24 over 48.1 IP.  He posted 9 K in his first two starts (12.2 IP) and has managed no more than 3 K in the 7 starts that have followed.  He certainly has potential, but unless he starts striking out more batters it is going to be tough to trust him.
• Matt Cain got the win, but it certainly wasn’t impressive as he allowed 6 ER on 8 Hand 2 BB, striking out 3.  Among the damage were 3 HR, something that has consistently been a problem this season (it’s the third time he’s allowed 3 HR in a game in his past six outings).  He should improve there, though you can argue that he’s actually benefitted from a little bit of luck (21.3% line drive rate, .242 BABIP).  If he can start limiting the HR there will be better results, though he’s a pitcher we are going to want to take a much closer look at. Read the rest of this entry »

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by Steven Grindstaff

Yesterday we looked at three pitchers who could be good buy low candidates (click here to view).  Today, let’s take a look at three who you may want to part ways with before it is too late:

  Sell High Candidates:                                 ERA               FIP                  Differential
1. Jeremy Guthrie, KC                        2.28                 4.62                 (2.34)
2. Jeff Locke, PIT                               2.95                 4.88                 (1.93)
3. Travis Wood, CHC                         2.03                 3.65                 (1.62)

Jeremy Guthrie – Kansas City Royals
5-0, 2.28 ERA, 47.1 IP, 5.70 K/9, 2.66 BB/9

Jeremy Guthrie was rewarded by the Royals this past offseason for his success after they acquired him in 2012.  He was given a 3 year, $25M deal to be the number two guy behind James Shields.  Early into the 2013 season he has given the Royals 5 wins through 47.1 IP.  There is just no way Guthrie is going to have continued success like this.  His .250 BABIP (career .275) ranks him 20th in MLB.  His 93.2 LOB% (career 73.1%) is the second highest.  That is just asking for trouble.

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Today at Rankings Professor we have posted our weekly MLB Prospect Power Rankings looking at the Top 10 prospects on the cusp of making an impact (as well as 10 players who are also in the conversation).

There was a major shake-up at the top of the list, as some of the better prospects in the game begin to heat up:

1. Christian Yelich – Miami Marlins
2. Zack Wheeler – New York Mets
3. Wil Myers – Tampa Bay Rays
4. Kevin Gausman – Baltimore Orioles
5. Nick Franklin – Seattle Mariners

To view the entire list, click here.

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by Ivar G. Anderson

This week I thought it would be interesting to take a look at a few Double-A starting pitchers (though one was recently promoted to Triple-A) that show signs of quick movement to the majors.

Alex Wood SP ATL
A left-handed fastballer drafted by the Braves in the second round of the 2012 draft, he’s shown excellent results in his short stint in the minors.  In 44 IP this season at Mississippi, he’s posting a 0.82/0.95 ERA and WHIP combo, with a 9.20 K/9 and FIP of 1.97.  He also has yet to allow a HR after allowing only 1 HR in 55 IP at Single-A in 2012.  He needs to develop some secondary pitches to make it in the majors, but I have every confidence that the Atlanta coaching staff is capable of working that out over the next couple of seasons.  In a dynasty league, he’s someone to stash for future brilliance.

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by Will Overton

We saw two pitchers at opposite ends of the injury spectrum last night. While Zack Greinke was making his return from a month layoff, David Price was leaving the game in the third injury with tightness in his triceps. Meanwhile, we also saw three guys hit multiple HR’s last night and some big pitching performances as well. Here is the rundown of all of it:

•  What an unbelievable roll Manny Machado is on right now for the Orioles. The 20 year old phenom is already asserting himself as one of the best pure hitters in the game. Machado racked up four hits yesterday afternoon, three of them doubles. Machado is 14 – 25 in his last five games with four games of three hits or more. Machado is on pace to pass 200 hits with ease.
•  It’s still coming together, but slowly Jason Kipnis is breaking out of his early season slump. Kipnis had a huge game yesterday going 3 – 4 with 3 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI and a pair of doubles. Kipnis average is up to .236 now and he has 4 HR’s and 13 RBI in the first half of May. Read the rest of this entry »

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