by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)
Overall the numbers for Adam Wainwright have been solid, with a 2.52 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, but things have spiraled in August with a 5.29 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Is this just a bad stretch or should we have seen it coming?
Overall he has been hit relatively hard, with a 24.2% line drive. That certainly makes his .268 BABIP seem extremely lucky, with the .324 thus far this month being a necessary regression (.250 in the first half).
That alone wouldn’t be the biggest cause for concern, but there are other signs that should be garnering our attention. Wainwright’s strikeout rate is down, currently with a 7.17 K/9 on the season and 6.14 in the second half. His SwStr% of 8.4% is below average. Part of the problem could be a reduction in velocity, which has been seen as the season has progressed (chart is his velocity on his Fourseam fastball//Sinker): Read more