Archive for Transaction Analysis

Breaking Down The Mariners/Rays Trade (Karns A Bust, Miller Worth Targeting & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The Trade:
The Seattle Mariners Acquire: RHP Nate Karns, LHP C.J. Riefenhauser & OF Boog Powell
The Tampa Bay Rays Acquire: INF/OF Brad Miller, 1B Logan Morrison & RHP Danny Farquhar


The Mariners Fallout:
The key to the deal is obviously Karns, who posted some solid numbers over 147.0 IP for the Rays last season:

  • ERA – 3.67
  • WHIP – 1.28
  • Strikeouts – 8.88 K/9
  • Walks – 3.43 BB/9

That said we have to question his ability to maintain the strikeout rate.  He doesn’t generate many swings and misses (9.2% SwStr%) and he also doesn’t get opponents to chase outside the zone (29.5% O-Swing%).  He did own a 10.3 K/9 over 449.1 IP in the minors, which does offer some promise, but the underlying numbers speak volumes. Read more

Dissecting The Cole Hamels Trade: Did Philadelphia Acquire Their Future Closer, Catcher & Outfielder?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We’ve finally gotten a resolution to the Cole Hamels saga, as the Phillies and Rangers have reportedly struck a deal.  According to multiple reports the details are as follows:

Rangers Get: RHP Cole Hamels, LHP Jake Diekman
Phillies Get: LHP Matt Harrison, RHP Jake Thompson, RHP Alec Asher, RHP Jerad Eikhoff, C Jorge Alfaro, OF Nick Williams

We all know that the Rangers obtained the top starting pitcher that they coveted, forming a formidable one-two punch with Yu Darvish in the coming years.  Could Hamels take a hit in value, moving to the AL?  It’s possible, but not something that’s going to send him spiraling down rankings.  Diekman brings big strikeout stuff (12.03 K/9 this season), but has significant control issues (5.89 BB/9) and has failed to get left-handed hitters out (.276 BAA).  If they could fix the issues he has the makings of a dominant late inning reliever, but for now he’s not going to be a factor.

As for the Phillies return, it’s not just quantity that they got back (though they certainly got a lot of pieces) but also some potential quality.  Harrison is the one veteran, though he’s battled injuries over the past three seasons (9 total starts).  In his last full season (2012) he went 18-11 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, using control (2.49 BB/9) and not strikeouts (5.61 K/9) to get the job done.  While a move to the NL could help improve the strikeouts, it’s impossible to know what we are going to get from him.  For now he can be ignored. Read more

Dissecting The Tulowitzki/Reyes Swap: Who Leads Off For Toronto, Closer Fallout, Trevor Story & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Updated 7:00 AM EST

No one could’ve been expecting to wake up to this news, as the long rumored Troy Tulowitzki trade has finally come to fruition.  His landing spot makes the deal even more shocking, as was dealt to Toronto (not the Mets or one of the other long time rumored suitors).  According to Jon Heyman (via Twitter) the full trade is:

Toronto Gets: SS Troy Tulowitzki, RHP Latroy Hawkins
Colorado Gets: SS Jose Reyes, RHP Miguel Castro, RHP Jeff Hoffman, RHP Jose Tinoco

From Toronto’s perspective they add another masher to the lineup, forming a scary quartet with Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista.  They are gambling that Tulowitzki can stay healthy, especially playing half his games on turf (though potentially spending time at DH will help), but Encarnacion and Bautista are only signed through 2016 (both have 2016 club options) so Tulowitzki gives them a long-term fixture in the lineup.  He’s also an upgrade defensively over Reyes.  While it’s adding to a strength, from a long-term franchise outlook it makes sense. Read more

Trade Fallout: Scott Kazmir Dealt To Houston, Is A Regression On The Horizon?

Kazmir has flourished in Oakland the past two seasons, including a 2.38 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.29 K/9 and 2.87 BB/9 over 109.2 IP this season.  He has had a bit of luck, though, with a .262 BABIP and 77.5% strand rate.  He’s also been significantly better at home:

  • Home – 1.36 ERA
  • Road – 3.92 ERA

Read more

Fantasy Fallout: With Castillo Traded To Seattle Has Zunino’s Value Disappeared?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Yesterday the Seattle Mariners and Chicago Cubs matched up on a trade, with C Welington Castillo heading to Seattle in exchange for RHP Yoervis Medina. For the Cubs it was a fairly straight forward move, having been carrying three catchers on the roster and trying to find playing time for all of them. For Seattle the deal is a little bit more intriguing.

Heading into yesterday Mariner catchers had posted the following unimpressive marks:

  • Average – .165 (fourth worst in the league)
  • On Base Percentage – .221 (third worst in the league)
  • Slugging Percentage – .322 (tenth worst in the league)

Mike Zunino had been getting the lion’s share of the AB (106) hitting .179 with 5 HR. So the question now is if he has officially lost his job? Read more

Shocker: Craig Kimbrel Traded to San Diego: Atlanta’s Closer Situation, Maybin’s Stock Rises & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The Deal:
The San Diego Padres acquired RP Craig Kimbrel & OF Melvin Upton from the Atlanta Braves in exchange for OF Cameron Maybin, OF Carlos Quentin, SP Matt Wisler, OF Jordan Paroulbeck and the 41st pick in the 2015 draft.


The Padres Fallout:
The acquisition of Upton has no impact from a fantasy perspective, as he was unusable to begin with.  When healthy he’ll operate as a fourth outfielder behind the newly acquired trio of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Wil Myers.

Obviously the major fallout is Kimbrel, whose own value is unchanged.  However he bumps Joaquin Benoit from the Padres’ closer job and shifts him back into setup role.  While he’ll still hold value, thanks to his peripherals and strikeout potential, anyone who grabbed Kevin Quackenbush in hopes that he gained the job can safely move on. Read more