Archive for Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: Does David Wright’s Contact Indicate A Rebound Is On The Horizon?

by Ray Kuhn

Did you Know:
Not all of David Wright’s metrics promote pessimism for 2015. Despite his struggles, Wright’s Hard Contact Ratio of 116 in 2014 was right in line with his average of the past five seasons; 118.

There is no disputing that Wright had a down year in 2014, and a shoulder injury is a large reason why. At age 32 it would be fool hardy to expect a full return to form, but at the right price there could still be value.

For one thing, as noted above, Wright is still making hard contact. It is also safe to assume that his 5% HR/FB rate is an outlier, that at the very least will double in 2015. Despite the quality of contact that he was making, his Power Index fell greatly from 130 in 2013 to 84 last season. Read more

Stat of the Day: Could Arismendy Alcantara’s Strikeouts Keep Him Out Of The Lineup?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Did you Know:
The Cubs’ Arismendy Alcantara owned the highest strikeout rate in September:

  1. Arismendy Alcantara – 41.4%
  2. Javier Baez – 40.7%
  3. Ryan Howard – 39.1%

The issues of Baez and Howard are well documented, but Alcantara’s strikeout problem has flown relatively under the radar. He has a chance to win the second or third base job, and he brings both power and speed, but can he make consistent contact?

He did post an overall 31.0% strikeout rate in the Majors, so it shouldn’t be shocking. The more troubling thing may be the breakdown of his strikeouts and the pitches they came against:

  • Hard – 17
  • Breaking – 14
  • Offspeed – 5

In other words, it wasn’t that pitchers were simply throwing him breaking balls or offspeed pitches to exploit an aggressive young hitter. They were simply able to beat him with fastballs.

That is not an encouraging notion and helps to explain why the Cubs made moves seemingly to remove him from the regular lineup. Obviously there’s potential, but he needs to do a much better job of making contact if he wants to utilize it.

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball

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Stat of the Day: Why Lance Lynn Could Regress In 2015

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Did You Know:
Lance Lynn utilized his fastball last season the seventh most of any qualified pitcher over the past five years:

1. Bartolo Colon (2013) – 85.5%
2. Justin Masterson (2011) – 84.4%
3. Bartolo Colon (2011) – 82.9%
4. Bartolo Colon (2014) – 82.6%
5. Justin Masterson (2012) – 80.7%
6. Ross Detwiler (2012) – 80.3%
7. Lance Lynn (2014) – 79.0%
8. Justin Masterson (2010) – 78.1%

Lynn also owned the 11th highest utilization in a season, with a 73.2% mark in 2013.

Obviously using your fastball to this extent doesn’t necessarily mean that you can’t produce. Of course it’s also interesting to note that only four different pitchers make up the top eight. Read more

Stat of the Day: Why Mitch Moreland’s Power Should Rebound, Making Him A Buy Low Candidate

by Ray Kuhn

Did You Know:
Based on advanced power metrics, Mitch Moreland’s two home runs in 167 at bats last season are an outlier that will be reversed in 2015. Here is a look at Moreland’s Power Index compared to his Expected Power Index over the past three seasons:

  • 2012: 15 HR/125 PX/128 xPX
  • 2013: 23 HR/143 PX/136 xPX
  • 2014: 2 HR/86 PX/143 xPX

Granted Moreland did have just 167 at bats last year prior to season ending ankle surgery, but he should have had more than 2 HR. In fact, based on the progression of his xPX, you would have expected his home run total per at bat to increase, not plummet. The fact that he had a 5% HR/FB also was a contributing factor. Read more

Stat of the Day: Adam Wainwright’s Line Drive Rate: Why The Concerns For 2015 Are Legitimate

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Did You Know:
Among pitchers with at least 400 innings over the past three seasons Adam Wainwright has allowed the second highest line drive rate:

1. Brandon McCarthy – 23.8%
2. Adam Wainwright – 23.4%
3. Tim Lincecum – 23.3%
4. Corey Kluber – 23.1%
5t. Ricky Nolasco – 22.8%
5t. Ryan Vogelsong – 22.8%

Many have declared Wainwraight a potential bust in 2015 and with good reason. His line drive rate has been over 23% each of the past three seasons, topping out at 23.9% in 2014 (when he benefited from a .267 BABIP). Read more

Stat of the Day: Why Rafael Soriano Is Not A Good Gamble To Take

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Did You Know:
Among pitchers with at least 20 save opportunities in 2014, Rafael Soriano was tied for the league lead in blow saves with 7 (Luke Gregerson, Jonathan Broxton and Brad Ziegler were all credited with 8, though they were more in setup roles).

Soriano is also tied for second in most blown saves over the past two seasons with 13:

1. Addison Reed – 14
2t. Rafael Soriano – 13
2t. Luke Gregerson – 13
2t. Junichi Tazawa – 13

No other pitcher has been credited with more than 11 blown saves. Read more