Archive for 2009 Projections

Projections for Five Pitchers

Now, it’s time for a few pitching projections for everyone on opening day:

Jon Lester:
195.0 IP, 17 W, 3.92 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 148 K (6.83 K/9), 69 BB (3.18 BB/9)

Mark Buehrle:
215.0 IP, 14 W, 3.85 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 132 K (5.53 K/9), 49 BB (2.05 BB/9)

Kenshin Kawakami:
185.0 IP, 12 W, 3.84 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 131 K (6.37 K/9), 52 BB (2.53 BB/9)

John Lannan:
175.0 IP, 8 W, 4.22 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 108 K (5.55 K/9), 66 BB (3.39 BB/9)

Jordan Zimmerman:
120.0 IP, 6 W, 4.28 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 96 K (7.20 K/9), 45 BB (3.38 BB/9)

Which of these do you agree with?  Disagree with?

Projections for Five Hitters

We are just hours away from Opening Day and I wanted to get a few more projections out there.  To kick things off this morning I have projections on five offensive players.  Let’s see what I’m expecting:

Ryan Braun
.292 (174-595), 36 HR, 112 RBI, 90 R, 17 SB, .325 BABIP, .340 OBP, .566 SLG

Evan Longoria
.268 (146-544), 28 HR, 94 RBI, 82 R, 6 SB, .316 BABIP, .336 OBP, .493 SLG

Carlos Quentin
.274 (141-515), 27 HR, 91 RBI, 82 R, 5 SB, .292 BABIP, .358 OBP, .501 SLG

Russell Martin
.285 (148-520), 15 HR, 68 RBI, 81 R, 15 SB, .312 BABIP, .380 OBP, .427 SLG

Brad Hawpe
.285 (144-505), 27 HR, 95 RBI, 77 R, 2 SB, .340 BABIP, .380 OBP, .521 SLG

Which of these do you agree with?  Which do you disagree?  Why?

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Preseason Predictions – The Rotoprofessor

Well, it’s finally time for me to share my two cents for the upcoming season.  Saving the best for last, right?  Feel free to let me know how crazy I am!

American League:
AL East: Boston Red Sox – They are just too good for me to bet against.
AL Central: Chicago White Sox – I know the Twins are the popular pick, but with Mauer hurt I’m not sure they are going to have the offense to get it done. 
AL West: Los Angeles Angels – As their pitching continues to go down the gap continues to shrink, but their lead was too big to begin with.  It may be closer then we originally expected, but I still see them taking home the title.
AL Wildcard: New York Yankees – When you spend like they did, if you don’t make the playoffs it would be a bitter disappointment.  The Rays will push them, but unlike last season something is likely to go wrong.  Someone will get hurt or the pitching will regress.  Whatever it is, I just see them falling short.

National League:
NL East: Philadelphia Phillies – Until the Mets prove they can keep it together for 162 games, I just can’t pick them to win the division.
NL Central: Chicago Cubs – They could be the best team in the NL.
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers – The signing of a likely motivated Manny Ramirez makes them the top team in the division.
NL Wildcard: New York Mets – Yes, they have collapsed each of the past two seasons, but at least they don’t finish against the Marlins in 2009.

Playoffs:
Red Sox over White Sox – The Red Sox have a rotation that could be scary in the playoffs, especially if Smoltz can get healthy.
Yankees over Angels – The Yankees pitching will give them the edge.
Red Sox over Yankees – I just can’t bet against the Red Sox, who have the payroll flexibility to add at the deadline if need be.

Mets over Cubs – The Cubs have the talent, but I can see their pitching suffering injuries (Harden anyone?), hurting them in a short series.
Dodgers over Phillies – Billingsley & Kershaw have the potential to be dominant in a short series.
Dodgers over Mets – Manny being Manny.  He wants a pay day and has something to prove.

World Series:
Dodgers over Red Sox – Joe Torre gets one last laugh against his old nemesis Read more

Updated Projection for Javier Vazquez

When I originally posted my projections for Javier Vazquez (click here to view), it was before his trade to the Atlanta Braves, so I wanted to give an update:

205.0 IP, 16 W, 3.82 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 199 K (8.74 K/9), 54 BB (2.37 BB/9)

I actually dropped the innings a little bit, thanks to the potential of him being pulled from games for a pinch hitter.  That helped contribute to lower strikeouts (though an increased K/9) and walks, as did the fact that he will be facing a pitcher instead of a DH.  The ERA came down significantly, and the WHIP slightly.  Overall, the move makes him a great option for fantasy owners.

What does everyone else think?  Will Vazquez be a solid #2 fantasy starter or will the results be the same?

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Preseason Predictions – Jimmy Hascup

By Jimmy Hascup 

American League:
AL East: Boston Red Sox – Reigning AL MVP, Ortiz, and Bay- they have the lineup to win with their bats. And if injuries strike, they have the depth that the Yankees really don’t have.
AL Central: Minnesota Twins – The pitching will lead the way and they add another potent bat to Morneau and Mauer as Delmon Young wakes from hibernation.
AL West: Oakland As – Don’t ever doubt their young pitching – and they’ll finally be able to score some runs this season.
AL Wildcard: New York Yankees – CC and Tex will lead the way… and they can always go out and get someone if they need to.  We all know Yankee fans won’t deal with another early offseason. 

National League:
NL East: New York Mets – The revamped bullpen makes the difference this year.
NL Central: Chicago Cubs – Most complete team in the division by far.
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers – Their pitching proves to be good enough and they have one of the few guys who can carry a team on his own, in Manny Ramirez.
NL Wildcard: Philadelphia Phillies – Rotation is iffy outside of Hamels and Myers, but they’ll be able to make due with their hitting. 

Playoffs:
Red Sox over Twins – The Sox are just too dominant for the Twins to keep up.
Yankees over Oakland – I agree with Ryan on the Bronx Bombers.  Money will definitely talk in this series.
Red Sox over Yankees – Beckett, Dice-K, and Lester > CC, Burnett (maybe he’ll be injured?), and Wang.  Pitching wins championships and I think the Sox will have it. 

Mets over Dodgers – Lineup and pitching is better = victory.
Cubs over Phillies – All-around better team and pitching will be able to quell Phillies bats.
Mets over Cubs – Cubs make a run, but the Mets get over the hump and forget about the meltdowns of the past few seasons. 

World Series:
Mets over Red Sox – In the inaugural season of two new NY stadiums, Mets earn the first prize.  Read more

2009 Projection – Francisco Liriano

While we’ve spent plenty of time talking about Francisco Liriano, I have not yet given you my actual projection for 2009, so here we go:

185.0 IP, 16 W, 3.31 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 172 K (8.37 K/9), 64 BB (3.11 BB/9)

Maybe this projection is a little bit aggressive, but why shouldn’t it be?  He proved with his second half numbers (2.74 ERA over 65.2 innings) that the talent is most certainly still there.  The innings also are not a big concern, having thrown nearly 200 innings last season between the majors and minors.  I could see the team being cautious in the early going, possibly giving him additional rest when available.  Is he going to return to the pitcher he was in 2006?  Likely not, but he still has all the talent to be among the games elite.

What do you think?  Is this a realistic projection?  What are you expecting from him in 2009?

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.