Archive for Quick Hit

Quick Hit: Will Cliff Pennington Hold Value In 2011?

While left shoulder surgery may limit Cliff Pennington over the “first week of exhibitions” (according to Joe Stiglich via Twitter), that makes it seem like he will not be very far behind the rest of the Athletics hitters.  That would make it seem like he is going to be ready for Opening Day, but is it enough to make him an option for fantasy owners?

He’s certainly an under-the-radar option, but let’s first look at his 2010 campaign to help give us an idea of his potential:

508 At Bats
.250 Batting Average (127 Hits)
6 Home Runs
46 RBI
64 Runs
29 Stolen Bases
.319 On Base Percentage
.368 Slugging Percentage
.296 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Clearly he didn’t bring much power to the table, though no one in Oakland’s lineup was much of a threat in that department in 2010.  Over his minor league career he hit 18 HR and picked up 187 RBI over 1,852 AB.  He’s going to be a non-factor in those departments, which immediately hurts any potential fantasy appeal. Read more

Is Josh Hamilton Worth The Risk?

After the 2008 season Josh Hamilton became all the rage for fantasy baseball owners and why not?  He was coming off a year where he hit .304 with 32 HR and 130 RBI.  Just one year later, however, things have taken a complete 180.  After staying healthy for all of 2008, injuries once again reared their head, limiting his ability to produce, leading to the following line:

336 At Bats
.268 Batting Average (90 Hits)
10 Home Runs
54 RBI
43 Runs
8 Stolen Bases
.315 On Base Percentage
.426 Slugging Percentage
.324 Batting Average on Balls in Play

What You Need To Know:

  • His current ADP is around 53, making him a fifth round draft pick in standard, 12-team mixed leagues.
  • He looked very good in his one full month (August) when, in 29 games, he hit .342 with 1 HR, 17 RBI and 10 R. Read more

AFL Quick Hit: Has Donald Veal Turned The Corner?

Donald Veal, acquired by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 2008 Rule V draft, may finally be displaying the talent that many have believed he possessed.  He has struggled since being promoted to Double-A in 2007 (with the Cubs) to the point that the Pirates tried him out of the bullpen last season (with awful results).

In the Arizona Fall League, he appears to have rediscovered himself:

3 Wins
16.2 Innings
0.54 ERA
0.74 WHIP
17 Strikeouts (9.44 K/9)
2 Walks (1.11 BB/9)
.259 BABIP

It is obviously an extremely small sample size, so I wouldn’t be hanging your hat on this as a reason to consider him a tremendous sleeper for 2010.  For a player who has been considered one of the Cubs Top 10 prospects in the past, however, there is reason for optimism in the lefty. Read more

Quick Projection: Matt Garza

2009 Projection:
195.0 IP, 14 W, 3.97 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 149 K (6.88 K/9), 65 BB (3.00 BB/9)

Thoughts:
Acquired by the Rays as part of the big trade last off-season (which included Delmon Young), he was great and made everyone believe that the Rays completely fleeced the Twins.  He certainly has the potential to repeat the production he’s shown, having posted back-to-back sub-4 ERAs (though ’07 was in just 83.0 innings).

His WHIP last season was impressive, at 1.24, and while I’m expecting a regression there (thanks to his BABIP, which was a low .278 last season), he’s still going to be better then average there.  Throw in the fact he plays for one of the better teams in baseball and Garza could easily continue as one of the better pitchers in the league and well worth using in all formats.

What does everyone else think?  Could Garza repeat his ’08 performance?  Could he improve?

Quick Hit: Joba Chamberlain

2008 Statistics:
4 Wins
100.1 Innings
2.60 ERA
1.26 WHIP
118 Strikeouts (10.58 K/9)
39 Walks (3.50 BB/9)
.332 BABIP

Thoughts:
Will he start or will he relieve?  That is the only question surrounding his value, isn’t it?  Well, that as well as his ability to stay healthy and the question of how many innings the Yankees will actually let him throw.

To open the season he is the fifth starter, but chances are that is going to change at some point.  Having only thrown 100 innings last season, as well as suffering an injury, there’s no chance the Yankees allow him to go all out for the entire season, logging 200+ innings.  In fact, I would be shocked to see him approach 180, which certainly does inhibit his value.

Of course, his talent causes that to not be a discussion stopper.  He’s just too good of a pitcher and has the potential to be among the elite, despite pitching in the toughest division in baseball.  As a starter last season he posted a 2.76 ERA over 65.1 innings (with 74 Ks), showing just how great he could be. Read more

Quick Hit: Jorge Cantu

2008 Statistics:
628 At Bats
.277 Batting Average (174 Hits)
29 Home Runs
95 RBI
92 Runs
6 Stolen Bases
.327 On Base Percentage
.481 Slugging Percentage
.297 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Thoughts:
Talk about a renaissance.  Once thought to be one-hit wonder, Cantu came back in full force.  It was his first useful fantasy season since 2005, when he hit .286 with 28 HR and 117 RBI for the then Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Since then he struggled with the Rays, ending up back at Triple-A, before an unspectacular stint with the Reds.  Then, he landed back in Florida and everything suddenly just clicked again.

His FB% was significantly increased, even from his 2005 campaign.  Last season he hit the ball in the air 44.8%, compared to 36.8% in ’05.  In fact, 2008 was the first time in his career where his ratio was over 38.4%.  Believable?  I think not, and a regression is likely in order.

His average could rebound, however, as the BABIP was a bit on the lower side.  It placed him 108th in the league, so needless to say a little bit more luck could be in his future.  Of course, his strikeout rate was the best of his career, so an increase could offset any improved luck. Read more