Archive for Player Analysis

Why Tyler Duffey Could Prove To Be More Of A Bust Than Sleeper In 2016…

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

When thinking of a young Minnesota starting pitcher all eyes fall on Jose Berrios, but the Twins were cautious with the top prospect in ’15 .  Instead of seeing if he could make an impact down the stretch they opted to keepi him in the minors. Instead it was Tyler Duffey who the team summoned, and he had been impressive both at Double-A (2.56 ERA) and Triple-A (2.53 ERA) before excelling in the Majors for 10 starts:

58.0 IP
5 Wins
3.10 ERA
1.31 WHIP
53 Strikeouts (8.22 K/9)
20 Walks (3.10 BB/9)
49.7% Groundball Rate
.315 BABIP

On the surface it appears like he brings all three skills we look for from a starting pitcher, but are the numbers for real? Let’s take a look: Read more

Fantasy Fallout: Could Mat Latos Rebound With The White Sox?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Mat Latos split time with three different teams in 2015. While that’s not necessarily indicative of “struggles”, given the trading around the game, it certainly wasn’t a good sign.

Pitching for the Marlins, Dodgers and Angels he pitched 116.1 innings and compiled a 4.95 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. While there is obviously concern in the numbers, specifically the ERA, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t hope that the 28-year old rebounds. The Chicago White Sox took the plunge, signing him to a 1 year, $3 million contract yesterday but at that price he could just as easily be a bullpen piece (though the White Sox have obvious questions at the back of their rotation).

Latos owned a 7.74 K/9 and 2.48 BB/9. Control has never been an issue (2.65 career BB/9), though there had been questions regarding his strikeouts. His velocity was up a bit (91.5 mph) last season and in recent years he’s begun working in a split-finger fastball, giving hope to the reound. Considering the 21.65% Whiff% it generated last season it would make sense for him to feature it even more.  The move to the AL is going to be a potential issue, but there’s enough upside.

The bigger concerns, at least now, is the elevated line drive rate (24.2% in 2015, over 21% for three straight seasons). Read more

2016 Value Selections: AL Central Edition: Daniel Norris, Eddie Rosario & More

by Ray Kuhn

At this point there really is no such thing as a true “sleeper” (especially as the definition has evolved and become less than crystal clear). Knowledge is readily available and consumed and sleepers have become players that people are high on and expect good things from in the coming season, compared to their prior year performance.

With that mind, instead of listing a sleeper from each team I am going to focus on a playerwho I feel has a good chance to exceed their draft day price. These are not necessarily exciting players, but options to keep an eye on. It is possible that they could go undrafted in some, if not all leagues, but the potential is there while the risk is not.

Let’s take a look at the AL Central:

Chicago White Sox – Avisail Garcia – OF
Garcia was once a top prospect… Then he became a disappointment… Now the best thing you can say about him is that he is a mediocre outfielder, but let’s remember that he is just 25-years old and there is a still time for him to improve. I don’t think he will ever reach the level once fore casted for him, but there is some value to be found. Last season Garcia hit .257 with 13 HR, 59 RBI and seven stolen bases. Per Baseball HQ, that was worth $9, although I’d be surprised to see him go for even half that amount let alone more than a $1 this season. That means it will be pretty easy for Garcia to exceed his draft day price in 2016. Read more

Fantasy Throwdown: Anthony Rendon vs. Jason Kipnis: Who Is The Best Best For 2016?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

You can argue that both Jason Kipnis and Anthony Rendon are coming off disappointing 2015 campaigns, though for drastically different reasons. For Rendon it was injuries costing him any chance of producing a productive season. For Kipnis there was a solid average (.303), but it was relatively empty as he paired it with 9 HR and 12 SB. Which player is better positioned to post a strong 2016? Let’s take a look:

 

Home Runs
Kipnis – While the home runs weren’t there he did have 43 doubles and 7 triples, so it wasn’t like he lacked extra bases power. The question comes if he’s going to see some of those start going over the fences once again. With 15 HR in 1,196 PA over the past two seasons it’s tough to bank on, though his average distance on non-groundballs did improve over the final two months (263.893 compared to an overall mark of 257.799). Of course even that fell short of his 2013 mark (267.642) and he’s never been a player to put the ball in the air very often (30.5% for his career). While he could see his power grow, he’s going to be more of a 8-12 HR threat as opposed to someone who could push 20+. Read more

Is Brandon Crawford A Bust In Waiting?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

It’s hard to describe Brandon Crawford’s 2015 campaign as anything but a breakout performance, as he posted the following line:

507 At Bats
.256 Batting Average (130 Hits)
21 Home Runs
84 RBI
65 Runs
6 Stolen Bases
.321 On Base Percentage
.462 Slugging Percentage
.294 Batting Average on Balls in Play

His obvious calling card was his power, which is believable considering his 281.772 average distance on non-groundballs to go along with 33 doubles and 4 triples. Granted the former was a significant jump from his overall 2014 mark (265,510), but he was at 274.113 through July and may have simply tired down the stretch. Read more

2016 Bust Alert: Why Avisail Garcia Isn’t Worth The Risk

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Avisail Garcia is one of those players that is often hyped, but is there any chance that he actually backs it up? He failed to do so in ’15, despite getting full-time AB, with this uninspiring line:

553 At Bats
.257 Batting Average (142 Hits)
13 Home Runs
59 RBI
66 Runs
7 Stolen Bases
.309 On Base Percentage
.365 Slugging Percentage
.320 Batting Average on Balls in Play

While you can argue that there’s more upside in the average, considering his 24.5% line drive rate, is that enough to hang our hat on? He continued to strikeout a significant amount (23.5%) and his plate discipline was abysmal with a SwStr% of 17.3% and an O-Swing% of 46.6%. It wasn’t just one type of pitch that he struggled with either, as evidenced by his Whiff%: Read more