Archive for Player Analysis

Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Matt Harvey Heads To LA, But That Doesn’t Mean There’s Fantasy Appeal

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Once upon a time Matt Harvey was one of the elite starting pitchers in the game, but that was multiple injuries and teams ago.  The once promising career has been derailed, though after being sent to Cincinnati during the 2018 season he at least showed signs that he could still be a useful Major League pitcher (he had a 7.00 ERA in 27.0 IP with the Mets prior to the deal):

128.0 IP
7 Wins
4.50 ERA
1.25 WHIP
111 Strikeouts (7.80 K/9)
28 Walks (1.97 BB/9)
42.6% Groundball Rate
.296 BABIP

You can argue that there’s more upside, with a 73.0% strand rate perhaps indicating some “bad luck”.  Now in Los Angeles, after signing an $11 million one-year contract with the Angels, it’s fair to wonder if the soon-to-be 30-year old can continue to evolve, or if the time has come to truly write him off. Read more

2019 Projection: Buster Posey Isn’t Elite, But Just How Far Has He Fallen?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Remember when Buster Posey was among the elite fantasy options?  Those days appear to be far behind him coming off what can only be described as a disappointing season:

398 At Bats
.284 Batting Average (113 Hits)
5 Home Runs
41 RBI
47 Runs
3 Stolen Bases
.359 On Base Percentage
.382 Slugging Percentage
.316 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Obviously injuries did play a role, but is that enough of an explanation as his power disappeared and his average wasn’t in the realm of what we’ve become accustomed (career .306 hitter)?  Let’s take a look and what happened and our expectations moving forward: Read more

2019 Bust Alert: J.A. Happ Returns To New York, Which Isn’t A Good Thing For His Outlook…

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The signing of J.A. Happ wasn’t the sexy addition many had expected, especially with rumors throwing names like Noah Syndergaard, Madison Bumgarner and Patrick Corbin into the mix.  The Yankees did have familiarity with Happ, who thrived in his 63.2 IP in New York after being acquired from Toronto around the Trade Deadline:

2.69 ERA
1.05 WHIP
8.91 K/9
2.26 BB/9

Happ has posted a BB/9 of 2.91 or better for five straight seasons, so that’s not an eye-popping number.  The ERA, strikeouts and WHIP are, and none of the are completely believable.

There was a change in approach, with Happ moving away from his sinker (29.07% to 14.37%) instead to his fourseam fastball (42.27% to 59.17%).  Maybe that allowed his changeup to play up a little bit more?  Even if it did, the changeup generated just a 13.28% Whiff% (which did represent his best mark).  Forget about his overall 9.78 K/9, even the mark just in New York seems unrepeatable. Read more

Fantasy Fallout: With Jake Bauers & Yandy Diaz Swapping Spots, Will Either Be Able To Develop?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The three team trade that was pulled off by the Mariners, Indians and Rays was surprising on a few different levels, especially with Edwin Encarnacion landing in Seattle (instead of Tampa Bay).  The real fascinating part of the deal comes from the perspective of the Rays, who virtually swapped Jake Bauers for Yandy Diaz (though there were other small aspects of the deal).  Which player has the higher upside in their new locale?  Who has the highest upside overall?  Let’s take a look at these two players and break it down:

 

Yandy Diaz – Third Baseman
The big question for Diaz will be whether or not he can tap into a little bit more power than he has thus far.  That’s because over the past two seasons in the Majors (299 PA) he’s already proven that he has a solid approach and can hit the ball hard:

  • SwStr% – 6.4%
  • O-Swing% – 17.9%
  • Oppo% – 34.4%
  • Hard% – 37.7%

Read more

Fantasy Fallout: Are Charlie Morton, Tanner Roark or Lance Lynn Worth Investments In Their New Locales?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

After a relatively quiet start to the Winter Meetings things got churning a little bit yesterday, with a slew of pitchers on the move.  While there was some late night bullpen movement (Jeurys Familia to the Mets, Joe Kelly to the Dodgers), the early part of the day was dominated by the starters.  Let’s take a look at who made some moves and what their upside is:

 

Charlie Morton to Tampa Bay
The team that started the opener trend made a fairly large investment in a starter, giving Morton a 2 year, $30 million contract.  Clearly they aren’t going to pay that much money not to utilize him as a true starter, joining Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow at the top of the Rays’ rotation. Read more

Now In Philadelphia, Can Andrew McCutchen Re-Emerge As A Strong Fantasy Option?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

It wasn’t a complete surprise that Andrew McCutchen landed in Philadelphia, what likely caught people off-guard was that he landed a deal worth 3 years and $50 million.  For a player of his age and clearly not the elite player he once was, it’s a large sum of money.  That’s not to say that McCutchen doesn’t still have value, especially moving to a hitter friendly environment.

The power is going to be the key, since we can’t bank on him suddenly rediscovering some speed (though he could continue to swipe 10+ bases for now).  Just look at the split that McCutchen has shown in regards to his home runs over the past few seasons:

Year
Home
Road
20161014
2017919
2018713
Read more