Archive for Player Analysis

Believer or Deceiver: Are We Buying Into These Surging Starting Pitchers (Covey, Eflin & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Strong stats are nice to see, but as we all know what we see on the surface doesn’t necessarily tell the entire story.  Should we be believing in these players or should we being extracting as much value as we think we can before cutting bait and moving on?  Let’s take a look at a few intriguing names and how we should proceed:

 

Dylan Covey – Chicago White Sox
No one is going to argue against how well he’s pitched over six starts in the Majors (35.1 IP), as he owns a 2.29 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  He clearly can generate groundballs, and if you just look at the underlying metrics you would think that the production overall is sustainable:

  • Strikeouts – 8.41 K/9
  • Control – 2.80 BB/9
  • Groundballs – 61.0%

Read more

Ditch List Guidelines: After A Shocking Demotion, How Should We Handle Miguel Sano?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

It was a bit stunning to learn that the Twins had decided to demote Miguel Sano to the minors.  While the level he was sent to was eye-catching (High-A), that was more of a logistical decision and not one to read into.  Instead it’s the fact that a demotion was even needed, considering the high hopes that many had for him.

Was it the off-the-field issues hanging over him?  Was it the late start to the year due to injury?  Whatever the reason, Sano has been a clear disaster this season:

.203 (30-148) with 7 HR, 27 RBI and 17 R

The biggest issue is obviously a bloated strikeout rate, currently at 40.5%.  However is that a big surprise?  Last season he posted a 35.8% strikeout rate courtesy of an 18.3% SwStr%, it was just hidden behind a .375 BABIP.  This year the line drive rate is down significantly (13.3%, from 20.6% in ’17) and with it has gone his BABIP, to a much more believable .303. Read more

Playing the Splits: Home/Road: Is There Value In Chase Anderson, Nick Pivetta or Andrew Heaney?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We all try to take advantage of a player’s splits as a way to get an advantage.  Whether it’s a player’s production against right-handed pitchers vs. left-handed pitchers or at home vs. on the road or anything in between (day games vs. night games?) there is potential production at stake.  Let’s take a look at a few of the significant home/road splits for starting pitchers and try to determine if there is potential value or if it should just be ignored:

 

Chase Anderson – Milwaukee Brewers
Home – 5.06
Road – 3.12

Anderson hasn’t brought strikeouts or great control where ever he’s pitched (6.13 K/9 and 3.50 BB/9 in ’18), but that’s not the story.  It’s all about the home runs, something that was going to be a risk given the lack of groundballs (38.8% over his MLB career) and his home ballpark.  These numbers, however, are a bit too extreme (HR/FB): Read more

Believer or Deceiver: Are We Buying Into These Three Surging Starting Pitchers (Seth Lugo & More)?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

There were some intriguing names among the Top 50 players over the previous two weeks (through Sunday), especially in terms of starting pitching.  It feels like everyone is out there trying to strengthen their fantasy rotations, so are these “hot” starters the real deal or are they a mirage not to be distracted by?  Let’s take a look:

 

Seth Lugo – New York Mets
Lugo’s performance on Sunday night against the Yankees is going to garner a ton of attention, as he tossed 6.0 shutout innings against one of the elite offenses in the game.  While he’s seemingly found a home in the bullpen this season, it’s hard to argue against the numbers he’s posted in his two starts:

10.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, 11 K, 0 BB Read more

The Ditch List: How To Handle These High Upside Hitters (Sano, Conforto & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We all know the players who have disappointed, but the bigger question is if they can turn things around or if it’s best to cut our losses and move on.  In terms of pitchers we have the added “bonus” of at least being able to pick our spots, if the upside remains, though that may be a small consolation prize.  Let’s take a look at three players who we had high expectations for and try to determine how we should proceed:

 

Miguel Sano – Minnesota Twins
No one is about to endorse simply cutting Sano, though it’s getting harder and harder to believe in a rebound.  Through his first 155 PA he’s struggled, hitting .206 with 7 HR and 26 RBI.  The power isn’t terrible (in a full 600 AB season he’d be on pace for 28 HR), but his approach and ability to hit for a usable average just isn’t there:

  • SwStr% – 16.5%
  • O-Swing% – 32.6%
  • Fly Ball Rate – 48.1%

Read more

Five & Dime Shopping: Pinpointing Under-the-Radar Hitters For Those In The Deepest Of Formats

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Are you searching for help on the waiver wire in an extremely deep league?  It’s never easy, but here are a few names that may be tempting you.  Are they worth it?  Is there upside?  Let’s take a look:

 

Jung Ho Kang – Pittsburgh Pirates – Third Baseman
CBS Sports – 5%, ESPN – 1.3%

After missing all of 2017 due to legal issues Kang is working his way back into shape at Single-A, and in his first seven games it doesn’t appear like he’s missed a beat.  In 24 AB he’s hitting .417 with 3 HR and 11 RBI, and possibly even more impressive is his 3 K vs. 6 BB.

It will be interesting to see where the Pirates fit him into the lineup once he’s deemed ready, though it’s not like they’ve gotten massive production from third base thus far.  The current options have posted a .410 SLG, which ties them for the eighth worst mark in the league.  Do either of these slashes scream of a must start: Read more