Archive for Player Analysis

Sell High Candidates: Three Hitters To Consider Parting Ways With (Dickerson, Bour & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Yesterday we looked at three potential sell high pitchers (click here to view), so today let’s change gears and look at three hitters that we may want to sell.  It doesn’t mean that they can’t maintain their early season production, but there’s a good chance that their value is never higher than it is right now.  That makes for a strong selling opportunity, so let’s take a look:

 

Corey Dickerson – Tampa Bay Rays – Outfielder
2017 Stats – .330, 17 HR, 39 RBI, 56 R, 2 SB

He’s continued to prove that he can hit for power outside of Coors Field, and there’s little reason to think that he won’t keep doing it (19.5% HR/FB).  It’s the average that’s a significant red flag, as he’s benefited from luck (.374 BABIP) and displays a poor approach:

  • SwStr% – 14.0%
  • O-Swing% – 47.1% (highest in the league)

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Sell High Pitching Candidates: Three Starters To Consider Parting Ways With (Bundy & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We are always trying to determine who we should be holding on to and who we should be selling.  That’s sometimes easier said than done, especially when it comes to pitchers who were bought under-the-radar or look to be living up to expectations.  While you may not realistically be able to sell high on these players, here are three pitchers that you should at least try to:

 

Mike Foltynewicz – Atlanta Braves
He’s long been a hyped sleeper candidate, but do we really believe in him or has the time come to finally give up?  It’s been a roller coaster ride in ’17, as he’s shown both good and bad depending on the time frame you focus on.  Just look at some of his metrics by month:

Month
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
April8.063.161.05
May6.482.162.16
June8.583.491.27
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Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Does A Surprising SwStr% Mean Buying Opportunities (Peacock, Manaea & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

While SwStr% may not be the end all, be all indication of a strikeout rate, being able to generate swings and misses is obviously important.  We all know who the best strikeout pitchers are, so it shouldn’t be surprising to see pitchers like Corey Kluber (19.5%), Chris Sale (16.4%) and Max Scherzer (14.5%) among the league leaders for June.  However they are joined by some surprising names, so let’s take a look at four noteworthy names in the Top 10 to try to figure out their overall appeal:

 

Jaime Garcia – Atlanta Braves
June SwStr% – 17.0%
Overall SwStr% – 11.1%

Health has always been the biggest issue facing Garcia, and while the June SwStr% is inflated he continues to display the full skill set we look for from a starting pitcher.  Overall he’s posted just a 6.53 K/9, though he’s up to 8.85 in June, and while the upside may not be quite that high it’s better than his overall mark (7.20 career K/9).  Then you have a 56.5% groundball rate, as well as control that has always been strong (career 2.69 BB/9) and trending in the right direction: Read more

Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Why Now Isn’t The Time To Give Up On Kyle Schwarber

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Yesterday’s news that Kyle Schwarber had been demoted to Triple-A shouldn’t come as a major surprise.  After all he was hitting .171 with 12 HR and 28 RBI, so getting him to regain some confidence outside of the spotlight makes sense.  The question is if he’s going to be able to make the necessary adjustments?

The power isn’t the problem, with a 17.4% HR/FB.  It’s the average, and while a poor mark was expected there’s still hope.  Strikeouts have been the biggest issue, with a 28.7% strikeout rate, though his 10.8% SwStr% is improved from is 2015 mark (14.4%).  While he isn’t particularly strong against any pitch, he’s made consistent contact against all of them (Whiff%):

  • Hard – 11.56%
  • Breaking – 11.76%
  • Offspeed – 12.50%

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Sell High Candidate: Could It Actually Make Sense To Trade Cody Bellinger?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Cody Bellinger has certainly burst onto the scene, as he’s on a record setting pace since making his MLB debut (all stats are through Tuesday, June 20):

.270 (53-196), 22 HR, 49 RBI, 40 R, 4 SB

You would think that holding onto him would be a no-brainer, and in keeper leagues that is likely the case.  However kicking the tires and seeing what is available also isn’t the craziest thing as you can argue that his value will never be higher.  That’s not to say that he’s going to completely fall off a cliff, but it would seem likely that he’s going to regress:

 

Batting Average
Thus far he has looked extremely strikeout prone, with a 29.7% (after posting a 28.6% strikeout rate at Triple-A) courtesy of a 14.2% SwStr%.  He’s had problems with swings and misses against all kinds of pitches:

  • Hard – 13.76%
  • Breaking – 17.32%
  • Offspeed – 20.61%

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Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Is It Time To Move On From Nick Castellanos or Ian Kinsler?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

At this point it starts to get harder and harder to buy into rebounds, doesn’t it?  With July quickly approaching it is starting to become more and more realistic that a slow start is more than just a slump, and maybe the time has come to cut bait and move on.  Patience is still a virtue, however, and it’s not too late.  With that in mind let’s take a look at two players off to slow starts and determine if there’s still hope or if the time has come to move on:

 

Nick Castellanos – Detroit Tigers
He’s a player who we always point towards potential upside, though the results don’t necessarily follow suit.  This season has been no different, with an uninspiring .230 average to go along with 8 HR and 37 RBI.  Why should we care?  Why should we believe?

While the plate discipline continues to be poor (15.1% SwStr%, 35.1% O-Swing%), when he does make contact it’s incredibly hard (27.0% line drive rate and his 49.2% Hard% is tied for second in the league).  He also has shown a similar HR/FB to what he did a year ago (12.7%), the difference is his batted ball profile has changed: Read more