Archive for Player Analysis

The Ditch List: The Time Has Come To Move On From Max Kepler, Jerad Eickhoff & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

At this time of year any injury or setback could ultimately end a player’s season.  It’s extremely frustrating for fantasy owners, especially given the uncertainty, as we decide whether to hold a player or not.  Let’s take a look at a few of the injuries/news that has come out recently and how fantasy owners should proceed (keep in mind this is geared towards those in redraft formats):

 

Alex Dickerson – San Diego Padres
This is a poorly timed slump, with September 1 looming and the potential callups of Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot coming with it. Over the past two weeks he’s hitting just .217 with 1 HR. There’s a good chance the strikeouts continue to rise (9.3% SwStr% overall) and the power continues to stagnate (it was never seen as his calling card). Throw in the potential loss of AB and there’s little reason to continue holding out hope. Read more

Forecasting The Future: What To Expect In September For Mazara, Bregman & Dahl

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Fantasy owners have become accustomed to seeing young players hit the ground running, though that doesn’t necessarily mean that they all can maintain it.  Sometimes they hit a wall and rebound…  Sometimes they hit that wall with the struggles not letting up…  Sometimes they simply smash through the wall completely…

It’s not necessarily an easy thing to pinpoint, especially when dealing in short sample sizes (for instance, the remainder of 2016), but it’s definitely worth examining as we prepare for the stretch run.  Let’s take a look at a few rookies and try to foresee what is in their future over the final few weeks of 2016:

 

Nomar Mazara – Texas Ranger
.281 (114-406), 14 HR, 46 RBI, 45 R, 0 SB

He’s seen a lot of time in the Majors this season and has shown good numbers, with an ability to make consistent contact (17.4% strikeout rate) and hit the ball hard (23.7% line drive rate).  That helps to support the average, but the question is going to come in his power.  It’s not that his 14.3% HR/FB is unbelievable, but he has posted just a 29.3% fly ball rate.  It’s tough to maintain a significant home run stroke with that type of number, and he’s actually seen his groundballs rise (50.0%) and his line drives fall (21.1%) since the All-Star Break. Read more

Is It Time To Push The Panic Button On Orlando Arcia, Either Short Or Long-Term?

by Ray Kuhn

There are cases where a prospect’s value peaks before he even makes his Major League debut, which may be the situation we are dealing with in regards to Orlando Arcia.  Before I get accused of being overly dramatic, let’s take a step back.

Arcia’s struggles since his promotion are by no means indicative of his long term outlook, and the shortstop is still just 22-years old.  If you are playing strictly in a seasonal league, I wouldn’t expect much from him moving forward. However, the fact that Milwaukee is committed to him and he is receiving consistent playing time means we should at least keep him on our radars. At any time it is possible that the switch turns on.

Arcia spent last season in Double-A and he certainly created optimism both for the Brewers and fantasy owners for 2016. As a 21-year old he batted .307 with 8 HR, 74 runs, 69 RBI and 25 SB. After a season like that the logical next step was a few months of domination in Triple-A followed by bursting onto the scene with the Brewers like Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa did last season. Read more

With His 2016 Over, What Is Aaron Nola’s Upside For 2017?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Aaron Nola has officially been shutdown for the season, ending what was a seemingly miserable campaign. He finished with a 4.78 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, which will likely cause some to ignore him as we start preparing for 2017. Howeve numbers can often be extremely deceiving. Just look at the underlying marks:

  • 9.81 K/9
  • 2.35 BB/9
  • 55.2% groundball rate

From those numbers we would’ve expected significant success, but a .334 BABIP and 60.6% strand rate sabotaged the overall numbers. Can we reasonably expect him to produce the type of numbers we would’ve expected, though?

He did start throwing his sinker more this season, at 43.67%, which helps to explain his elevated groundball rate. If he qualified it would place him seventh in the league, which alone would’ve put him on radars.  When coupled with the control he’s always shown, given his 1.5 BB/9 in the minor leagues, he would be a no brainer. Then there’s the strikeouts… Read more

The Ditch List: Looking At Injured Players Fantasy Owners Can Move On From

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

At this time of year any injury or setback could ultimately end a player’s season.  It’s extremely frustrating for fantasy owners, especially given the uncertainty, as we decide whether to hold a player or not.  Let’s take a look at a few of the injuries/news that has come out recently and how fantasy owners should proceed (keep in mind this is geared towards those in redraft formats):

 

Luis Severino – Starting Pitcher – New York Yankees
The argument could’ve been made that the Yankees had a bit of a quick hook with Severino after his struggles in Boston, considering the matchup and setting.  However after the injury to Nathan Eovaldi necessitated a return to the Majors, Severino promptly proved that the Yankee concerns were correct (7 ER over 3.2 IP).  He now owns an 8.58 ERA as a starter in the Majors, while he has thrown 8.1 shutout innings coming out of the bullpen.

Could the Yankees look to convert him into a late inning weapon?  Time will tell, but he’s back at Triple-A and impossible to trust even if he does get another start in the Majors in ’16. Read more

Starter, Streamer or Stay Away: What’s The Value In Chad Kuhl Or Chad Green?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Looking for an under-the-radar pitching option to help you down the stretch? Let us help to identify if a pitcher should be considered a starter for the final few weeks, a streaming option or someone to stay away from.  In the debut of this column we’ll take a look at a pair of Chad’s to try and determine their fantasy appeal:

 

Chad Kuhl – Pittsburgh Pirates
The 2013 ninth round selection had moved a level at a time to start his career, but the Pirates had a need and they pushed him from Triple-A to the Majors in 2016. The soon to be 24-year old hasn’t overwhelmed in his first six starts, but he’s been solid:

31.1 IP, 3.73 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 22 K

Obviously a 6.32 K/9 isn’t about to garner much interest, and his 8.3% SwStr%, 22.1% O-Swing% and 6.1 career K/9 in the minors don’t elicit much hope for an improvement. Instead he’s a control artist (2.1 BB/9 in the minors) who should see an improvement in his groundball rate (1.61 GO/AO in the minors). Throw in the potential to win some games and the overall package is not bad at all. Read more