Archive for Player Analysis

Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Could J.T. Realmuto Emerge As A Viable Option

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

While it isn’t an injury to starter Jarrod Saltalamacchia that has necessitated the promotion of J.T. Realmuto, that doesn’t mean fantasy owners shouldn’t be paying attention. Ranked as our #5 catching prospect entering the season (click here for the rankings), there certainly should be an opportunity for him to produce (and it appears the Marlins are giving one to him, with three straight starts).

At that time we said:

“A very similar player to Christian Bethancourt, he actually has more speed (18 SB at Double-A) to go along with potential double-digit power (25 doubles, 6 triples, 8 HR in ’14). Throw in the ability to both make contact (13.9% strikeout rate) and hit the ball hard (20.3% line drive rate), and we have to think of Russell Martin in his early years. That’s a prime candidate to be a fantasy star.”

Obviously nothing has changed in that scouting report, other then him making a good impression in his first taste of Triple-A (.385 with 1 SB over 13 AB). While you could argue that he’s simply being brought up to replace the injured Jeff Mathis, why wouldn’t the Marlins take a look at their future? Read more

Three (Potential) Early Sell High Candidates: Nolan Arenado & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

No one is really going to draw any conclusions off of a handful of AB…  Well, at least we shouldn’t though that doesn’t mean that people don’t.  Here are a few players that some people may believe in, which could mean an early opportunity to sell high on (all stats are through Wednesday):

 

Nolan Arenado – Third Baseman – Colorado Rockies
Don’t get me wrong, Arenado is going to be one of the better options at third base this season.  However with his strong start (.324, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 9 R), including performing away from Coors Field, there may be someone in your league willing to pay for him like he’s an elite player.

Remember he has a track record of not producing on the road (.256/.292/.388 for his career) and two home runs in six games shouldn’t be enough to convince us of anything.  He also is going to need support and, given the health history of Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, there’s no guarantee he has that all year long. Read more

Scouting Report: Looking At Archie Bradley’s Successful 2015 Debut & The Fallout

by Ray Kuhn

Archie Bradley was considered by many as a top prospect and one of the best minor league starters. A 2013 with a 1.84 ERA in 26 starts, 21 of which came in Double-A, will do that to a pitcher.

However he struggled in 2014 as he was limited by an arm injury and managed a 4.45 ERA in 83 innings. That included failures in the Arizona Fall League and suddenly Bradley had seemingly been surpassed even in his own organization….

And now, just like that, he is back on everyone’s radar. He ended Spring Training with a 1.61 ERA, but despite that performance and his pedigree no one could have expected last Saturday’s start to go as well as it did.

He out pitched Clayton Kershaw!

Granted Kershaw did not have his best stuff, as he often doesn’t in Arizona, but Bradley would have gotten the better of most starters on this day.

Read more

Is Jean Segura A Prime Bounce Back Candidate? Not For Me, Even With The Strong Start…

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

There are going to be a lot of people who believe the Brewers’ Jean Segura was a prime buy low candidate for 2015 (especially with him opening the season hitting .333 with 1 HR and 1 SB). However, you aren’t going to find me on the bandwagon. Why? Let’s take a look.

To start, here’s a look at his past two season, by half:

Stat
First Half '13
Second Half '13
First Half '14
Second Half '14
Average.325.241.232.271
BABIP.349.285.257.309
Line Drive Rate19.2%15.9%18.5%18.0%
Strikeout Rate12.1%15.9%12.5%12.8%
Home Runs11141
HR/FB15.3%2.3%6.7%2.6%

There is no question that the power he showed in the first half of 2013 was an aberration. He simply buries the ball into the ground too much, with a 59.6% career groundball rate, to think that he’s going to be anything more than a 5-7 HR guy right now. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, given his speed, it’s just a fact we need to accept. Read more

Could There Be Any Value In A Jarrod Dyson/Paulo Orlando Platoon?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

With Alex Rios hitting the DL for the next few weeks the Royals appear primed to go with a platoon of Jarrod Dyson and Paulo Orlando in an effort to replace him. Is there any fantasy value to be had?  Let’s take a look:

 

Jarrod Dyson
Prior to Rios’ injury Dyson had received just 1 AB over the team’s first seven games, so you can argue he’s the biggest “winner” of the situation. A left-handed hitter, he should certainly see ample AB over the next few weeks.

He does have a notable split for his career, however:

  • vs. RHP – .269/.332/.358
  • vs. LHP – .213/.289/.247

Read more

Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Why Shane Greene May Have Emerged As A Must Own Option…

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Shane Greene got his season off to a spectacular start by allowing just an unearned run on 4 H and 1 BB, striking out 5, over 8.0 IP. There wasn’t much thought of him when he arrived in New York last season, but there’s a very different view now. Traded to Detroit in the offseason, here’s what we said about him in Rotoprofessor’s 2015 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide:

“No one saw any type of contribution coming from Shane Greene, but he posted 78.2 productive innings for the Yankees. Now in Detroit, if he can maintain his peripherals (9.27 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 50.2% GB%) he could really produce big numbers. Since 2011 he posted a 48.4% groundball rate and 3.58 BB/9 in the minors, though he was at 1.75 in 154.1 IP in 2013 so there’s definite hope in both categories. The bigger question is his strikeouts, which was at an 8.1 K/9 in the minors and 7.7 at both Double and Triple-A. While there could be a bit of a regression, his 9.9% SwStr% and 33.6% O-Swing brings promise that he can continue in the mid 8.5 range. With those types of peripherals, a powerful lineup and a favorable home ballpark, Greene is going to be a pitcher to target in all formats.” Read more