Archive for Player Analysis

Rest of Season Debate: Julio Teheran vs. Mike Minor

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

One pitcher owns a 2.71 ERA while the other sits at 4.86. This should be an open and shut case… However, as we have all learned numbers can be deceiving. Let’s take a look:

 

Strikeouts:
Teheran currently owns a 7.66 K/9, a step back from his 8.24 from 2013. His SwStr% is at 11.4%, however, indicating significantly more upside in the number. Considering he was at a 9.41 in the second half of last season, it’s easy to imagine more upside.

As for Minor, he has the better K/9, right now, with an 8.53. However his SwStr% is a below average 7.5% indicating significantly lower upside. Considering the mark was at 9.6% last season there’s hope, but he doesn’t offer the same upside as Teheran.

Advantage – Teheran

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Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Could Chris Tillman Enjoy Another Strong Second Half?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Please Note: All stats are prior to yesterday’s start

Last season the Orioles’ Tillman emerged as a viable fantasy option, winning 16 games to go along with a 3.71 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. This season? He’s found himself on many waiver wires, struggling to a 4.11 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.

It’s easy to say that he pitched over his head a bit last season, because the fact is that he did. He had an increased strikeout rate (7.81 K/9) and solid control (2.97 BB/9), but both marks were inflated by a notable second half improvement:

  • First Half – 7.17 // 3.30
  • Second Half – 8.56 // 2.57

The second half control was viewed as unsustainable, considering his minor league career mark of 3.6 (even with a 2.9 mark at Triple-A). This season he’s at 3.65 and, while he could improve that, don’t look for the same second half surge.

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Can Yasmani Grandal Prove To Be Fantasy Relevant?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Ever since exploding for 8 HR in 192 AB for the Padres in 2012, people have been expecting the power of Yasmani Grandal to show. However, a lot has changed between now and then.

Having served a suspension for PED use (as well as being tied to the Biogenesis scandal), having suffered a knee injury when he did play in 2013 and having never shown that type of potential before, fantasy owners have probably stopped believing. However he does have 7 HR in 195 AB this season, but it also has come along with a .210 average.

First let’s touch on the power. Since 2011 in the minor leagues Grandal owns a 32.1% OFB and a 13.2% HR/OFB. This season in San Diego? The marks sit at 26.3% and 19.4%, respectively. Something doesn’t appear to jive with those numbers.

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Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Tyler Skaggs & Justin Verlander

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

When you look at poor luck in the strand rate department, you may want to be quick and dub the pitcher a must buy option.  However, that’s simply not always the case.  Let’s take a look at two of the pitchers with the unluckiest strand rates in the first half to help determine if they are options to buy or deny:

 

Tyler Skaggs – Los Angeles Angeles
He has been a relative disappointment thus far, with a 4.50 ERA, but he also owns a 1.25 WHIP and a ton of upside to go along with it.  His BABIP is solid, at .297 courtesy of a 19.8% line drive rate.  He also has been plagued by terrible luck, with a 61.8% strand rate.  Obviously we have to think that it will improve as the season progresses, taking his ERA with it.

Skaggs has shown terrific control, with a 2.44 BB/9.  With a minor league mark of 3.0, it’s not completely unreasonable though even if he regresses in that regard there’s enough to like elsewhere in his numbers.

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Will Jon Singleton Live Up To Expectations In 2014?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The Astros’ Jon Singleton was much hyped over the first few weeks of the season. Viewed as one of the few power hitting prospects who could make an impact, the question was more if he could rebound from a disappointing 2013 season and if he could make consistent contact and hit for a viable average.

The first answer was obvious early, as he ultimately forced his way to the Majors. The second, however, is taking a little bit longer to figure out.

Singleton showed significantly better command of the strike zone at Triple-A, with a 21.8% strikeout rate. However, since reaching the Majors that number has ballooned to 36.8% helping him to a dismal .184 average. The question is, can he adjust?

Singleton has struggled against all pitches, but it’s been particularly bad against anything other than hard pitches: Read more

Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Is Stephen Vogt A Player To Target In The Second Half?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The A’s Stephen Vogt has become a popular name as of late, which makes sense given his impressive stat line (.358, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 11 R in 109 AB). Throw in eligibility at catcher, first base and outfield and there’s a lot to like. Of course that’s assuming that he can maintain this type of production over the remainder of the season…

Vogt’s average is definitely skewed, with a .376 BABIP courtesy of a 22.7% line drive rate. Among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances that places him 12th, and we’d expect that a regression is likely in his future.

He was a .305 hitter in the minor leagues and owns an 11.2% strikeout rate, so it certainly doesn’t preclude him from hitting for a good average. At the same time, since 2011 in the minors he owns a 20.9% line drive rate, .325 BABIP and 13.9% strikeout rate. Everything appears to be stacked against him from maintaining his current mark.

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