Archive for Player Analysis

Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: What To Do With A Few June Strugglers

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We are around the halfway point of the season, so sometimes it’s harder to identify those who have been struggling (and sometimes it isn’t).  Let’s take a look at a few players who have been struggling all season, though particularly in June (stats are through June 28) and try to determine how we should proceed:

 

Adrian Gonzalez – Los Angeles Dodgers
June Statistics – .216, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 7 R, 0 SB over 98 PA

It’s clearly been a miserable June for the now 34-year old and given his age it’s fair to wonder if it’s time to label him as “done”.  The power has actually been down all year long, with just 6 HR, and the batted ball profile helps to explain that mark:

  • Line Drives – 23.6%
  • Groundballs – 51.4%
  • Fly Balls – 25.0%

It’s nearly impossible for a player to hit for significant power with that low of a fly ball rate.  Keep in mind that for his career he owns a 37.0% mark and has never had a season below 32.1% (2011), but the number has been consistent each month in 2016: Read more

The Need For Speed (Off The Wire): Jose Peraza, Travis Jankowski & Michael Bourn

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Speed is quickly becoming hard to find for fantasy owners, so let’s take a quick look at three players who are easily available for fantasy owners to try and determine if they can make an impact:

 

Jose Peraza – Second Baseman/Outfielder – Cincinnati Reds
Past 7 Days – 4 SB

He’s being utilized in a utility role, but with Billy Hamilton currently in the concussion protocol there’s a chance he gets regular AB immediately.  As it is, a trade of Zack Cozart, Brandon Phillips or Jay Bruce ahead of the Trade Deadline would likely lead to the former top prospect playing every day.  There are questions about his profile at the plate, but there is no question that he can make an impact with his legs:

  • 2013 – 64 SB
  • 2014 – 60 SB
  • 2015 – 36 SB

Read more

June Velocity Leaders: Is There Upside In The Flame Throwers (Paxton, Ventura & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Entering play on Monday there were five pitchers averaging over 96 mph on their fastballs.  Does that make them must buy options?  Does it mean they are locks to produce gaudy strikeout totals?  Let’s take a look at each of them and their potential value:

 

Noah Syndergaard – New York Mets
Average Fastball – 98.1 mph

He had an injury scare recently (and there are reports that he’s dealing with a bone spur in his elbow), and while his start wasn’t very good on Monday there was no issue with his velocity.  He brings the entire package to the table and is quickly emerging as one of the brightest young starters in the game.  Just look at these numbers (prior to Monday) and it shows how excited you should get:

  • Strikeouts – 10.88 K/9 (15.0% SwStr%)
  • Walks – 1.19 BB/9
  • Groundballs – 54.2%

Read more

Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Are We Finally Seeing The Development Of Robbie Ray?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Despite a 4.45 ERA over five June starts, the underlying numbers actually look extremely promising for the Diamondbacks’ Robbie Ray:

  • Strikeouts – 10.48 K/9
  • Control – 2.86 BB/9
  • Groundballs – 44.7%

You can argue that the strikeout rate is a little bit inflated (9.8% SwStr% in June, 10.1% overall for the year) and obviously the groundball rate isn’t a number to brag about.  Still, at the end of the day the key to his potential success comes down to his control and keeping the ball in the ballpark.

Over his minor league career he owned a 4.1 BB/9 and overall he has a 3.92 BB/9 on the season.  Is his new found control something he can maintain or is he bound to regress?  He has been trending in the right direction (5.33 in April, 3.71 in May) and he has been hammering the zone with his fourseam fastball in June (52.73%).  That’s been a recipe for success, especially in regards to his control, as it’s the pitch he throws for a strike at the highest rate (33.25% balls) and he also throws it with enough velocity (94.69 mph average). Read more

Carlos Correa vs. Francisco Lindor – Who Is The Better Long-Term Selection?

by William P

The shortstop position is awash in hitting talent right now, with eleven SS-eligible batters with 10+ HR and another four right on the cusp with 9 HR.  In addition, three of those 15 have already posted double-digit SB, meaning there is a ton of fantasy production happening at the position in 2016.

The studs, like Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, are well known but for this article we’d like to focus on a couple of young shortstops called up in the middle of last year, Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor.

In fantasy drafts Correa was being picked #19 overall, while Lindor was going #66.  Correa is definitely the more-hyped prospect, while Lindor was thought to be more of a “glove first” player in the minors.  Both have now played just over a full season’s worth of MLB games (168 for Correa and 169 for Lindor), and while Correa has posted better overall numbers, is he the better pick for a long term keeper league?  Let’s take a look. Read more

The Sell List: Why NowIs The Time To Part With Kenta Maeda & Michael Saunders

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Kenta Maeda – Los Angeles Dodgers
Overall the numbers from Maeda remain solid, as he’s posted a 2.64 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over his first 14 starts (81.2 IP).  He also continues to flirt with nearly a strikeout per inning (8.71 K/9) and has shown solid control (2.64 BB/9), so there’s obviously a lot to like.  That said, you also have to wonder if now is the time that opposing teams will start to get a better read on him.

We aren’t through June yet, but thus far we have seen a decline in his SwStr%:

  • April – 12.3%
  • May – 12.2%
  • June – 10.1%

It seems odd that June currently represents his best strikeout mark (10.22 K/9), though that obviously screams of a bit of an aberration.  Overall he’s benefited from a 79.2% strand rate, a number that could easily regress as well.  If the strikeouts are going to fall and he isn’t going to be able to strand runners at the same pace, all of his numbers could plummet. Read more