Archive for Player Analysis

Why Fantasy Owners Should Not Yet Give Up On Luis Severino

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

There were concerns with Luis Severino entering the season, despite many wanting to overlook them.  Obviously no one could’ve expected that he’d be this bad, though those who purchased the Rotoprofessor 2016 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide found him ranked #52 among starting pitchers where we said:

“One of the premier pitching prospects in the game Severino backed up the hype when given the opportunity (62.1 IP) by posting a 2.82 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.  He flashed strikeouts (8.09 K/9), decent control (3.18 BB/9) and groundballs (50.9%), though critics will point to a .265 BABIP, 87.0% strand rate and 1.30 HR/9 as reason for pessimism.  There was luck at play, and Yankee Stadium didn’t help (1.75 HR/9 at home), but there’s reason to believe that all of the numbers will improve.  There likely will be a regression, but cutting down the home runs will help to offset that.  Given his minor league career BB/9 of 2.3, any improvement there will only further help to bolster his stock.”

So now the question is whether or not there is still hope?  It should be obvious that there is, at least for the most part… Read more

How Concerning Are The Velocity Declines Of Felix Hernandez & Matt Harvey?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

There are quite a few pitchers who saw a drop in their velocity when we look at April ’16 as compared to 2015.  Obviously conditions and it being early in the season play a role, but that doesn’t mean it should be completely ignored.  Let’s take a look at two of the more noteworthy declines and try to decide how to proceed (all stats are through Tuesday):

 

Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners
2015 – 91.8
April ’16 – 89.6
Decrease – 2.2

Note – This was written prior to yesterday’s poor start, where Hernandez allowed 8 R (4 ER) on 9 H and 0 BB, striking out 1, over 4.0 IP

There has long been concern regarding Hernandez’ workload and if it would eventually catch up with him.  Is that the reason for the decrease?  Maybe, maybe not, but it has to be taken into consideration and has helped to lead to a decline in his strikeout rate (7.71 K/9) and also could be to blame for his increase in walks (4.96 BB/9). Read more

Deep League Waiver Wire: Is The Value In Erik Johnson or John Lamb?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Over the past few days a couple of seemingly underwhelming options are set to make their returns to the Majors.  While they’ve struggled before, does that mean that there isn’t a chance for them to make an impact in 2016?  Let’s take a look and try to decide:

 

Erik Johnson – Chicago White Sox
With John Danks designated for assignment the White Sox will turn to Johnson to fill the void in their rotation.  While he has struggled through 16 Major League starts (4.17 ERA, 1.55 WHIP), there is more upside.

One of his biggest problems in the Majors has been his control, with a 4.5 BB/9.  Over his minor league career (496.1 IP) he was at 3.1, with a 3.4 mark at Triple-A, so there certainly is room for improvement.  Is that really enough though?

He’s never shown a propensity for strikeouts (6.9 K/9), even in the minors (7.9 K/9), and his underlying numbers over the past two seasons don’t indicate significant improvement (SwStr% // O-Swing%): Read more

Has Rubby De La Rosa Finally Figured Things Out?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

When we talk about Rubby De La Rosa we seem to always be talking about potential, though he never seems to be able to put it together.  After a slow start to the season has that finally changed?  Over his past two starts he’s allowed 1 ER over 13.0 innings, striking out 16 and walking just 2.  Even more promising is that both starts came at home, where he consistently struggled a year ago:

  • Home – 5.23 ERA
  • Road – 4.21 ERA

Home runs have always been the biggest issue, but over these past two starts he’s been generating a significant number of groundballs (66.7% and 57.1%).  It’s also not like they’ve come against weak offenses, in the Pirates and Cardinals, adding even more intrigue.

Strikeouts?  Control?  Groundballs?  Maybe he has finally figured something out. Read more

Hold ‘Em or Fold ‘Em: Is It Time To Move On From A Slow Start? (Deshields, Ozuna & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We’re a month into the season and the disappointing starts are growing more and more concerning.  Just how patient should we be?  Is it still too soon to cut bait and move on?  Is now the time to throw the dead weight to the waiver wire?  Let’s take a look at a few players and try to determine how fantasy owners should proceed:

 

Marcell Ozuna – Outfielder – Miami Marlins
There are a lot of people looking to give up on Ozuna, who was hitting .227 with 4 HR, 11 RBI and 10 R over his first 88 AB.  The power is promising, though the average and lack of speed are obvious concerns.  The underlying metrics don’t scream of a huge recovery:

  • Strikeout Rate – 24.0%
  • SwStr% – 12.2%
  • Line Drive Rate – 20.0%
  • Popup Rate – 11.5%

Read more

Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Is There Reason For Optimism For Jon Gray?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We all know the potential that the Rockies’ Jon Gray brings to the table, though he has yet to truly show it in the Majors.  In 49.1 innings he’s compiled a 6.57 ERA and 1.72 WHIP, so while it’s a small sample size it’s fair to start wondering if he’s simply the latest pitcher to fall victim to Coors Field.

Again, we are talking about limited data, but look at his split:

  • Home – 9.20 ERA
  • Road – 2.70 ERA

Well that’s eye-popping, and while we’d expect better numbers on the road this is a very extreme split.  He’s better than that, but at the very least when setting your lineup you are going to want to consider the streaming implications.  He’s consistently shown strikeouts (9.49 K/9) and solid control (3.10 BB/9) regardless of where he pitches, so when he’s starting on the road he’s going to be worth considering. Read more