Archive for Player Analysis

Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Is There Any Hope For Byron Buxton, Either In 2016 Or Beyond?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Long considered an elite prospect, the Twins’ Byron Buxton continues to struggle in the Majors. Over 182 PA this season he’s hitting just .199 with 1 HR and 7 SB. There are numerous issues that are currently plaguing him, making us wonder if there’s any hope for a turn around in 2016.

 

Fly Balls:

  • 44.7% fly ball rate
  • 19.0% IFFB

For a player with little power who wants to utilize his speed, those are obviously crippling numbers. We would’ve hoped that he had shown signs of improvement, but he simply hasn’t.  Prior to taking a seat yesterday he owned a 50.0% fly ball rate and 20.0% IFFB in July. Read more

Sell High Candidates: Two Starting Pitchers To Capitalize On

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

It’s easy to become infatuated with players who are performing at a high level, but when we do so we are putting ourselves at risk.  Obviously we all want to own players who are exceling, but don’t become close minded and assume that there is no chance these players stop producing.  In most cases they are destined to regress, it’s just a matter of knowing when the right time to sell is.

With that in mind, here’s a look at a pair of pitchers who you likely want to start shopping before the tide starts to turn on their numbers:

 

Marco Estrada – Toronto Blue Jays
Key Stat – .193 BABIP

We could also point towards his 80.3% strand rate as far as luck goes.  Even with a 16.8% line drive rate (along the lines of his career mark of 17.5%), it’s hard to imagine him maintaining his current BABIP.  If “luck” was the only issue it would be enough to move on, but there’s more to it than just that. Read more

Waiver Wire Guidelines: Is Delino Deshields A Must Add Option?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Yesterday the Texas Rangers were dealt a tough blow, with Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder both landing on the DL (the latter could be lost for the season).  While this should finally clear regular AB for Jurickson Profar, he’s likely already owned in most formats.  The more intriguing name could be Delino Deshields Jr., who was recalled to fill one of the two open spots on the roster.

With speed being so difficult to find off the waiver wire, he’s certainly a name that you are going to watch closely (and in deeper formats scoop up immediately).  It’s easy to be discouraged, considering how bad he was earlier this year (.217 with 4 SB over 121 PA), but let’s not forget that it was in a fairly small sample size.  That’s not to say that he’s going to be an All Star, but he’s better than that.

For one, he continued to show a strong command of the strike zone:

  • SwStr% – 10.5%
  • O-Swing% – 23.5%

Read more

The Ditch List: Six Players Worth Cutting: Whit Merrifield, Alex Cobb & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Sometimes it’s injury…  Sometimes it’s inability…  Sometimes it’s being banished to the minors…  There are various reasons why someone may find his way onto our cut list, so let’s take a look at the players we are prepared to move on from this week:

 

Avisail Garcia – Chicago White Sox
With Justin Morneau joining the club, he figures to draw a significant number of at bats in the designated hitter role.  This season Garcia has only played 19 games in the outfield, so with another viable option for a DH he is destined to lose AB.

Of course if he had been hitting this wouldn’t be a problem, but Garcia entered play yesterday hitting .235 with 5 HR over 282 PA.  Considering his 21.5% fly ball rate it’s not a surprise that the power hasn’t been there, and he’s also struggled to make consistent contact (25.2% strikeout rate, 16.9% SwStr%).  That’s a terrible combination and he was cut worthy even before Morneau was in the mix.  Now with the AB drying up, move on quickly. Read more

Why Josh Reddick Is Among The Best “Buy” Candidates For The 2nd Half

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Obviously things would change if he’s ultimately traded, and it will likely be for the better, but even in Oakland Josh Reddick appears primed to be one of the better buys as we open the second half.  He was limited to just 53 games in the first half (190 AB), but his numbers were still respectable:

.295, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 24 R, 4 SB

More importantly, he proved that the improvements he made in 2015 (when he hit .272 with 20 HR and 10 SB over 526 AB) were for real.  This is specifically in regards to his approach at the plate, as he’s cut down on his strikeouts:

  • Career – 17.4%
  • 2015 – 11.2%
  • 2016 – 11.7%

With a 5.4% SwStr% and 25.7% O-Swing%, there’s little reason to believe that he can’t continue to make consistent contact.  Those numbers also support his improved walk rate, which stands at 10.7%, and with a believable .317 BABIP (especially since he could easily improve upon his 19.4% line drive rate) it would seem like .280+ is a given. Read more

Fantasy Outlook: What Does The Trade To Boston Mean For Drew Pomeranz

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Yesterday came the surprising news that Drew Pomeranz had been traded to the Boston Red Sox.  Of course it wasn’t shocking that he was dealt, it was more the return that San Diego received (19-year old Anderson Espinosa is considered one of the elite pitching prospects in the game).  Rumors had been percolating that Pomeranz could be on the move, as the Padres maximized the return on a player they acquired a few months earlier at a significantly lower price tag (Yonder Alonso & Marc Rzepczynski).

Now the question facing fantasy owners is how Pomeranz will fair in Boston, both short and long-term.  First let’s look at his home/road split from this season, something that is often telling for Padres’ pitchers:

  • Home – 2.64 ERA (47.2 IP)
  • Road – 2.32 ERA (54.1 IP)

Read more