Archive for Player Analysis

Has Domingo Santana Truly Broken Out Or Will Regression Hit In The 2nd Half?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Domingo Santana has long been a player who carried significant intrigue, with 20/20 potential.  However the concern over his strikeouts has always hung over him, though this season he’s seemingly overcome that and has really found his stride (through Saturday):

292 At Bats
.291 Batting Average (85 Hits)
15 Home Runs
50 RBI
54 Runs
9 Stolen Bases
.384 On Base Percentage
.500 Slugging Percentage
.368 Batting Average on Balls in Play

On the surface it would appear that his issues are behind him, especially with a reasonable 26.4% strikeout rate (31.2% for his career).  Of course, sometimes a first look can be deceiving so let’s dig in and see if his breakout is for real or if a regression is coming. Read more

Buy Low Corner Infielders: Can Maikel Franco Or Alex Bregman Live Up To The Hype & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We are officially at the mid-point in the season, which provides us all an opportunity to catch our breath and take a long, hard look at what our teams need.  Obviously we are all going to try to capitalize on some players we think should rebound after poor first halves, and also try to cash in and players whose performance is likely to regress.  Who should we be targeting?  Today let’s look at a few corner infielders worth targeting for your second half surge:

 

Maikel Franco – Philadelphia Phillies
He feels like a constant disappointment, doesn’t he?  Hitting .217 with 13 HR and 45 RBI, there is room for improvement (specifically in the average department) as the underlying metrics indicate better results:

  • Strikeout Rate – 13.5%
  • SwStr% – 9.6%
  • O-Swing% – 29.2%

Read more

Three Buy Low Starting Pitchers To Target For The 2nd Half

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We are officially at the mid-point in the season, which provides us all an opportunity to catch our breath and take a long, hard look at what our teams need.  Obviously we are all going to try to capitalize on some players we think should rebound after poor first halves, and also try to cash in and players whose performance is likely to regress.  Who should we be targeting?  Let’s kick things off with a few buy low pitching options:

 

Jon Lester – Chicago Cubs
Coming off his disastrous Sunday start it would be easy to throw up your hands and write-off Lester.  As it is it feels like the culmination of what has been an extremely disappointing first half (something you can say about the majority of the Cubs’ team).  With a 4.24 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, you can claim that the 33-year old may have simply lost it.  Of course, what exactly is there not to like in the underlying numbers:

  • 17 K/9 (11.0% SwStr%, 31.8% O-Swing%)
  • 08 BB/9
  • 7% Groundball Rate

Read more

Heading Into The Second Half, Is Alex Wood A Sell High Candidate?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The Dodgers’ Alex Wood has been one of the best stories of the first half of the season.  Virtually written off across the board entering 2017, he has been among the game’s best pitchers over his 15 appearances (13 starts):

80.2 IP
10 Wins
1.67 ERA
0.89 WHIP
97 Strikeouts (10.82 K/9)
22 Walks (2.45 BB/9)
63.5% Groundball Rate
.254 BABIP

You can argue that he’s due for a luck regression, whether it’s the BABIP or his 80.6% strand rate, and to an extent that’s true.  At the same time it’s impossible to argue against the skills as he’s checked off all the boxes at an elite rate. Read more

Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Will Their Be Second Half Rebounds For Jason Kipnis Or Francisco Lindor?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

There were high hopes for the Indians’ middle infield entering the season, but you can argue that both Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor have disappointed (to different degrees).  It doesn’t mean that there isn’t still hope…  Or is there?  Would fantasy owners be better off selling them off now or is there a rebound on the horizon?  Let’s take a look:

 

Jason Kipnis
There was a time that Kipnis was viewed as one of the elite second baseman in the game, and while he looked like he might still be that player in ’16 (.275 with 23 HR and 15 SB) things just haven’t clicked for him in ’17.  Maybe part of it is due to a late start to the season, playing in 9 games in April, but by now you would’ve thought he’d have found his footing.  However that hasn’t happened:

  • May – .248 with 6 HR and 19 RBI
  • June – .244 with 2 HR and 5 RBI
  • July – .071 with 0 HR and 1 RBI

Read more

Waiver Worthy: Which Young Middle Infielder Is Worth Targeting (Arcia, Anderson & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We’ve seen a wave of young middle infielders arrive in the Majors, though despite the hype many of them have struggled to produce (though, in some cases they’ve started to show signs of turning things around).  That doesn’t mean that we should ignore the upside, though you have to make contact in order to display that potential.  With many of them struggling in that regard, it’s hard to buy into.  Let’s take a look at three intriguing options, all of whom have carried elevated SwStr% and O-Swing%, and see if there truly is a reason to buy:

 

Orlando Arcia – Milwaukee Brewers
June SwStr% – 14.4%
June O-Swing% – 43.2%

Arcia has been among the hottest hitters in the league of late, including posting a .326 average in June (and he’s continued raking at the start of July).  While his 22.0% strikeout for the month is reasonable, as you can see the command of the strike zone remains abysmal.  He’s struggled to make consistent contact against all types of pitches, and that hasn’t changed in June (Whiff%):

  • Hard – 12.31%
  • Breaking – 22.83%
  • Offspeed – 20.00%

Read more