Archive for Player Analysis

Looking At The 10 Worst Hitter’s O-Swing% From 2017: Javier Baez, Adam Jones & Motr

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Chasing pitches outside of the strike zone doesn’t mean that a player is going to struggle.  It doesn’t guarantee an elevated strikeout rate or consistently weak contact, but it certainly doesn’t help matters.  With that in mind let’s take a look at the ten players who posted the highest O-Swing% from 2017 and try to pinpoint their outlook moving forward:

Ranking
Player
O-Swing%
1.Corey Dickerson45.6%
2.Javier Baez45.1%
3.Adam Jones44.1%
4.Brandon Phillips41.8%
5.Tim Anderson41.3%
6.Didi Gregorius40.8%
7.Mike Moustakas40.3%
8.Kevin Pillar40.1%
9.Odubel Herrera40.0%
10.Avisail Garcia39.8%

Read more

Breakout or Bust: Why We Are Buying Into Blake Snell’s Late Season Flourish

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The Rays’ Blake Snell has been considered one of the best pitching prospects over the past few years, though we’ve seen many similar pitchers stumble upon reaching the Majors.  Snell was no different, especially as his control continued to be an issue.  Late in 2017 we saw a change, though, as he posted BB/9 of 2.67 in August and 2.93 in September.  Now the question is if he has finally figured it out and can continue on that path, or if it was nothing more than a flash in the pan.

The key has been a change in approach, as he started throwing his secondary pitches more over those two months:

Months
Fourseam
Curveball
Slider
Changeup
April - July57.76%7.96%15.37%18.91%
August & September51.80%13.17%11.08%23.95%
Read more

Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Has The Time Come To Finally Give Up On C.J. Cron?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We keep waiting for C.J. Cron to emerge as a viable fantasy option.  He keeps showing signs, though the warts then present themselves and eliminate the shimmer of hope.  The 2017 season was no different, and the base numbers alone show it:

339 At Bats
.248 Batting Average (84 Hits)
16 Home Runs
56 RBI
39 Runs
3 Stolen Bases
.305 On Base Percentage
.437 Slugging Percentage
.296 Batting Average on Balls in Play

One of the problems has always been battling for playing time, with Albert Pujols (among others) helping to eat up the AB.  That’s just the tip of the iceberg, and things could quickly get worse. Read more

Why Zach Davies Doesn’t Offer Much Appeal Heading Into 2018

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Many had high hopes for the Brewers’ Zach Davies entering 2017 and, at least to an extent, there was nothing wrong with the production.  Or was there?  Over 33 starts (191.1 IP) he posted a sub-4.00 ERA and won 17 games, which is going to make some think that he’s an easy call as an option in 2018.  That would be misguided, though, as a further look into the numbers shows:

191.1 IP
17 Wins
3.91 ERA
1.35 WHIP
124 Strikeouts (5.83 K/9)
55 Walks (2.59 BB/9)
50.2% Groundball Rate
.302 BABIP

The wins have the potential to skew your opinion, but he lacks strikeout upside and it’s hard to see anything changing.  There’s nothing in the underlying numbers that indicate that he could get back even to the 7.44 K/9 he posted in ’16 let alone a number that’s reasonably usable.  Read more

Is A 2018 Rebound In Ian Kinsler’s Future, Or Is He Simply Past His Prime?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Ian Kinsler has long been considered one of the better second baseman in the game, though he’s coming off a down year overall.  That has led to questions as to whether age has caught up with him and if the production may never return.  Would that make him unusable?  Could he rebound?  Let’s try to answer those questions, first looking at last year’s numbers:

551 At Bats
.236 Batting Average (130 Hits)
22 Home Runs
52 RBI
90 Runs
14 Stolen Bases
.313 On Base Percentage
.412 Slugging Percentage
.244 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Obviously there was still some power and speed, it was his average that dragged down his value significantly.  It appears that he’s shifted his approach in recent seasons, trying to continue to produce power.  Just look at the trend of his fly ball rate over the past five seasons: Read more

Why We Are Buying A Breakout For Ozzie Albies In 2018

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

There has long been hype surrounding the Braves’ Ozzie Albies, though “long” may not be the correct word.  He won’t turn 21-years old until January, but he made a bit of a splash upon his promotion to the Majors:

217 At Bats
.286 Batting Average (62 Hits)
6 Home Runs
28 RBI
34 Runs
8 Stolen Bases
.354 On Base Percentage
.456 Slugging Percentage
.316 Batting Average on Balls in Play

When you couple those numbers with his time at Triple-A he had 15 HR and 29 SB playing the season as a 20-year old.  What’s not to like or get excited about?  Assuming that he’s going to be able to maintain that pace could be a mistake, of course, so let’s take a look. Read more