by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)
We all know that ADP doesn’t mean everything, but it certainly is a good asset to use to help prepare for our drafts. While it does vary by site, the folks over at fantasypros.com average the top sites from around the internet giving us a good idea of where players are being drafted overall.
In reviewing the ADPs among third basemen, there was one ranking that surprised me:
- Evan Longoria – 21.4 average ADP
- David Wright – 22.8 average ADP
Wright is being drafted before Longoria on one of the five sites currently being used (Yahoo!). However, Longoria is only being drafted 3-4 picks before Wright in each of the other four. Really?
For me, it’s not even close. Wright may offer more in the SB department, but at his age and with the injuries he’s had, he’s not going to be a 30+ SB option any more (he’s been under 20 each of the past four seasons). Would it be shocking to see him hit under .300 (BABIP over .340 each of the past two seasons)? Throw in Citi Field leading to fewer HR and a lineup that is hardly impressive around him, and there are significant concerns.
by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)
First base was always viewed as a source of power for fantasy owners, so it may surprise you to find out that there are only five 1B to hit over 25 HR this season. In other words, those who are hitting for power are going to get a little bump in the rankings, though it’s hardly the only thing we look for.
Here is how I currently rank the Top 5 fantasy 1B, let’s hear how you stack them up in the comments:
1) Paul Goldschmidt – Arizona Diamondbacks - He is a rare 5 category producer from 1B, as he’s the only with 20+ HR and 10+ SB at the position (Edwin Encarnacion should eventually become the second). He also offers as much potential in the average department as anyone (21.0% strikeout rate, 22.4% line drive rate), making him the total package.
2) Chris Davis – Baltimore Orioles - One of the premier sluggers in the game, he’s clearly proven last season was no aberration. That said, he still strikes out a ton (29.4%) and could slow down in the power department (33.1% HR/FB).
One of the first players coming off the board heading into 2013, Matt Kemp has battled injuries and inconsistency this season. He’s played in just 62 games this season hitting .263 with 5 HR, 27 RBI, 30 R and 9 SB.
It is his second straight injury plagued year (he played 106 games in 2012) and reports from Ken Gurnick (via Twitter) say, “Matt Kemp’s sprained ankle is healing slower than the Dodgers hoped and he might be out until September.”
That said he is just two years removed from a near 40/40 season (39 HR/40 SB in 2011) and there is no questioning his talent when he is healthy.
The early question facing fantasy owners is where will he fall in 2014? Do you still view him as a first round selection? Is he a player you are willing to avoid?
Let’s hear your thoughts!
You would think this is a fairly easy question to answer, but when you start looking at the options it may not be as clear-cut. From where I sit there are at least 7 players who could be included (in no particular order):
- Roy Halladay
- Cliff Lee
- Justin Verlander
- Clayton Kershaw
- Felix Hernandez
- CC Sabathia
- Tim Lincecum
That doesn’t even mention names like Jon Lester, Jered Weaver and a few others that could sneak in. So, the question for everyone is, as of today, who do you view as the Top 5 Starting Pitchers for next season?
We all have a preference of where we like to be on draft day. Are you someone who likes to draft at the beginning or end of the round? Are you someone who prefers to draft in the middle? Let’s here where you like to draft and why!
Personally, I’ve always preferred to be in the middle of the round. I have always felt like I could react to the trends of the draft better and get the players that I wanted. When you are drafting on either end, there are a lot of times where you may “reach” on a player, because if you don’t take them in that spot there is no way they are going to be there in 20+ picks. Obviously, there are also advantages to being on the ends of a round, but it has always been my preference to be in the middle somewhere.
It’s a simple premise, I’m going to make a statement and all you have to do is say if you think the player will be over or under the mark I set.
Mike Stanton will hit 35 HR in 2011
I am taking the over on this one, though I do think it will be close. His 22 HR in 396 AB in ’10 gave him a HR once every 18 AB. With a year of experience and another year older (and potentially stronger), would it really be a surprise if he betters that mark? He easily could become the next Adam Dunn.
Would it really surprise anyone if he surpasses 40 this season?