Archive for Wild Predictions

Wild Prediction: Ike Davis’ Power

The Mets may have been decimated by injuries and off the field issues the past few years, but that doesn’t mean that they are without any silver linings.  Ike Davis, a 2008 first round draft choice, certainly is something that Mets fans can be thankful for.

After an injury to Daniel Murphy opened the door in 2010, Davis grabbed the first base job and never relinquished it.  In 523 AB he hit .264 with 19 HR, 71 RBI and 71 R.  Modest numbers, yes, but they don’t tell the entire story.  You could see that he has power in his bat if you saw him play, as there were times that he made CitiField look small.

Now, as we enter 2011, there’s a good chance the 23-year old takes a step forward.  How big of a step?  Well, that leads to today’s prediction:

Ike Davis will hit at least 35 HR in 2011

Obviously, that’s quite a big jump, but there are many people who have taken notice of his power.  The Braves’ Chipper Jones was quoted in the Daily News (click here for the article) as saying: Read more

Wild Prediction: Andrew McCutchen Will Go 30/30 In ’11

Is anyone disagreeing that Andrew McCutchen is one of the most exciting young players in baseball?  I know he may get lost in the shuffle a bit, thanks to playing for a perennial bottom feeder like the Pirates, but don’t let that distract you.  The guy has the potential to be one of the elite hitters in the game.

I’ve already talked about McCutchen in detail (click here to view), where I said he could hit 20 HR in 2011.  After hitting 16 in ’10, that isn’t anything too wild.  Realistic, but that doesn’t fit into this column now does it?

If I want to make a wild prediction, I need to take it a step further (and not a small step):

Andrew McCutchen will go 30/30 in 2011

I don’t think anyone is going to argue that McCutchen is a near lock for 30 SB, no matter where he plays or where he hits in the lineup, so let’s turn our attention to the power.    At 24-years old, McCutchen clearly is still growing and adding power to his frame.  Read more

Wild Prediction: Yovani Gallardo Will Post An Elite WHIP

At this point with Gallardo it has gotten to the point that I feel obligated to make this type of prediction because I figure the year I don’t will be the year he finally puts it all together.  Call it superstition or call it something else (stupidity maybe), but such is life!

Enough Rotoprofessor bashing for one day, let’s look at today’s prediction (remember, a wild prediction is something that is expected to happen 20% of the time or less):

Yovani Gallardo will post a WHIP of 1.20 or better

When you look at his marks the past two years (1.31 and 1.37) it would appear like this prediction is a pipe dream.  However, when you look at the skills he brings to the table you realize that there certainly is the potential for him to excel.

When you can strike batters out you are less reliant on luck.  Over the past two seasons he has 404 strikeouts over 370.2 innings.  Needless to say, that’s a big-time rate. Read more

Wild Prediction: Chris Perez Will Fail As A Closer In 2011

We all know that the closer position has a bit of instability surrounding it.  No one would’ve predicted Jonathan Broxton to lose his role prior to 2010, but he hit a bump in the road and that’s exactly what happened.  So, is predicting that someone is going to lose his role as a team’s closer really “wild”?

Depending on the closer I certainly think it is.  While we know they all could lose their job at any time, I don’t think we expect many of them to do so.  Remember the rules of our wild predictions are that they have a 20% chance of happening or less.

With that preface, let’s get to today’s Wild Prediction:

Chris Perez will save less than 17 games in 2011

The Indians thought enough of Perez to ship Kerry Wood to the Yankees in 2010 (once he was healthy), and he certainly didn’t disappoint.  In 63.0 innings he saved 23 games (blowing just four), while posting a 1.71 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.

Yes, those are impressive numbers. Read more

Wild Prediction: Martin Prado Will Become A Top 2B Option

by Marshall Bauer

Second base is as deep as it has been for some time, but it seems like everyone after Cano has their fair share of question marks. Martin Prado is usually ranked in the bottom half of the top ten as he’s viewed as lacking that elite potential, which leads to my wild prediction.

Martin Prado will be a top 3 fantasy second baseman in 2011.

Prado was considered by most to be a career utility player entering 2010 when the Braves gave him a chance to be their everyday second baseman after they didn’t tender Kelly Johnson.  Prado rewarded the Braves with an All Star campaign, and rewarded fantasy owners by batting .325 with 10 homers and 4 stolen bases before the all star break. He battled injuries (broken pinkie, hip pointer, and torn oblique) in the second half to limp to the finish hitting only .278 with 5 home runs and 1 stolen base after the break.

In order for Prado to finish as a top 3 second baseman, he will have to outperform all but 2 of the like: Robinson Cano, Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Bradon Phillips, and Dan Uggla, as well as bounce back candidates: Aaron Hill, Ben Zobrist, Brian Roberts, Chone Figgins, and Gordon Beckham, among others. Read more

Wild Prediction: Jose Tabata Will Score 100+ Runs

There are many speed first options for fantasy owners to choose from on draft day.  You can focus on Juan Pierre or Michael Bourn or Brett Gardner.  However, someone who is often overlooked is Jose Tabata, who has the potential to bring more to the table than just stolen bases, leading to today’s Wild Prediction (remember, these predictions are expected to happen no more than 20% of the time):

Jose Tabata will score at least 100 runs

One of the things that may make this a little bit crazier is that the only Pirate to score more than 75 runs over the past two seasons is Andrew McCutchen, who had 94 runs in 2010.  The last Pirate to score 100 runs was Nate McLouth, who scored 110 in 2008 (the only other player to do it in the past five years is Jason Bay, who had 101 runs in 2006).

So, what makes Tabata different?  First of all, he looked impressive in his rookie year.  In 405 AB (102 games), he scored 61 runs.  If you take that rate and project it over 150 games, Tabata would’ve scored 89 runs.  That comes from an inexperienced 22-year old rookie.  With more experience, you have to like his potential upside. Read more