Archive for Player Comparison

Fantasy Throwdown: Hunter Renfroe vs. Franmil Reyes: Who Should We Be Targeting For ’18 & Beyond?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The San Diego Padres have moved Wil Myers to third base, opening up at bats in their outfield to evaluate as many as their young players as possible.  Two who have made an impact of late are Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes, so who is the better option to target?  Let’s take a look:

 

Hunter Renfroe
We took a quick look at him recently, dubbing him an option to buy.  There has never been a question about his power potential, having hit 30 HR a year ago (26 HR in the Majors, 4 HR in Triple-A) and 34 HR in ’16 (4 HR in the Majors, 30 HR in Triple-A).  That’s continued into 2018, as he’s proven he can hit the ball out of any ballpark (12 HR over 240 AB, split evenly between home and on the road) and there’s room for further growth (17.1% HR/FB).

The biggest question has always been his ability to make consistent contact, but he’s made strides since last season:

Season
Strikeout Rate
SwStr%
O-Swing%
201729.2%15.0%33.5%
201824.3%13.3%30.7%
Read more

Fantasy Throwdown: Kevin Gausman vs. Dylan Bundy: Which Baltimore Starter Should You Target?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We all know the story behind the Baltimore Orioles and it’s youg pitchers, as they never seem to live up to the hype.  Whether it’s due to injury or struggles, there always appears to be a reason to view them as a disappointment.  Thus far both Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman have had their issues, but both have the potential to fully emerge in 2018 (as they have both shown signs in recent years).  Who is the better bet to get there?  Let’s take a look:

 

Dylan Bundy
The former fourth overall selection in the 2011 draft is the epitome of the “injury curse” that seems to hang over Baltimore.  Just look at his inning totals from 2013-2015 in the minors:

  • 2013 – 0.0
  • 2014 – 41.1
  • 2015 – 22.0

That’s a lot of missed development time, though he appears ready to go without limitation (169.2 IP last season).  Spending the full year as a starter (28 starts), he showed some strikeout stuff (8.06 K/9) with even more upside (11.4% SwStr% overall, 9.92 K/9 in the second half).  He also paired it with solid control, with a 2.73 BB/9. Read more

Pass On Xander Bogaerts To Draft Orlando Arcia? It’s Not As Crazy As You Think…

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The Red Sox’ Xander Bogaerts has always been a highly hyped option, though it’s easy to argue that the production has never quite matched it.  Fantasy owners don’t necessarily draft with that in mind, consistently reaching/overvaluing him with the thought that this will be the year the breakout occurs.  Should we continue making that mistake, or would fantasy owners be wise to wait and instead take a high upside youngster who should be available significantly later in drafts?  For this exercise let’s use the Brewers Orlando Arcia as a comparison, though there numerous examples/options that can be used.

 

Average
While Bogaerts popped a .320 average a few years ago, he’s hit .294 and .273 the past two seasons.  The big year came courtesy of a .372 BABIP so it should never have been viewed as repeatable, and a 20.8% career line drive rate helps to support the regression.  He does make consistent contact (8.2% SwStr% in ’17), which helps, but a .280 mark appears more realistic.

Arcia hit .277 in his first full season in the Majors, though his plate discipline does leave a bit to be desired (12.8% SwStr%, 38.7% O-Swing%).  That said his Whiff% shows a bit more upside: Read more

Draft Day Decisions: Why You Should Pass On Addison Russell & Select Marcus Semien

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Addison Russell is going to be a hot commodity at fantasy drafts, and it’s not only because he posted gaudy numbers last season.  Instead it’s people looking towards the upside and the potential that he lives up to the hype that has often been bestowed upon him.  Does that necessarily make him a good selection?  With a current ADP of 135.20 in NFBC formats, making him the 8th shortstop coming off the board, an argument can be made against it.

Just look at the stat comparison with Marcus Semien, who owns a current ADP of 206.20, from last season:

Player
AB
AVG
HR
RBI
R
SB
Russell525.2382195675
Semien568.23827757210

Those numbers are similar, with each player having an edge in a category or two.  That means the disparity is caused by projection and hype as opposed to the actual skill set.  There’s nothing wrong in doing that, but can the argument be made that Semien’s upside is just as high? Read more

Should Fantasy Owners Draft Alcides Escobar And Pass On Jose Reyes?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

No one is going to argue that Alcides Escobar is a better fantasy option than Jose Reyes.  However does it make sense to bypass Reyes (ADP of 45.3) and select Escobar (ADP of 189.8)?  The health concerns surrounding Reyes alone would be a strike against Reyes, and the alternatives you can get in the fourth round make it that much more alluring:

  • Corey Dickerson – 44.8
  • George Springer – 45.2
  • Todd Frazier – 49.7

That said, would it be surprising to find out that Escobar’s stats could actually come close to Reyes’?  Let’s take a look:

 

Average
Reyes is a career .291 hitter whose lowest average since 2006 has been .279 (2009).  Sure Escobar is just a .263 hitter, but look at his marks the past three seasons: Read more

Fantasy Throwdown: Chris Carter vs. Brandon Belt: Who Is The Better Target For ’15?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Remember when Brandon Belt was viewed as a potential fantasy star?  It wasn’t that long ago, but injuries and inability have helped to derail him.  Sure he hit .289 with 17 HR back in 2013, but from a first baseman that’s obviously not enough power.

Fantasy owners are looking for someone more like the Astros’ Chris Carter, who slugged 37 HR in 2014.  Given the general lack of power around the game, it makes sense that the ADPs for the two currently are as follows:

  • Carter – 117.3
  • Belt – 200.7

Is that really the best strategy, though?  Is Carter really a better bet for 2015?  Let’s take a look:

 

Chris Carter
We all know that the power is there, it always has been, but what is drawing people to Carter is the improvement he showed in his average in the second half of 2014.  A strikeout machine, he posted a .252 average after the All-Star Break (.205 in the first half) thanks to a boost in line drive rate (24.0%). Read more