Archive for Player Comparison

Pass On Xander Bogaerts To Draft Orlando Arcia? It’s Not As Crazy As You Think…

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The Red Sox’ Xander Bogaerts has always been a highly hyped option, though it’s easy to argue that the production has never quite matched it.  Fantasy owners don’t necessarily draft with that in mind, consistently reaching/overvaluing him with the thought that this will be the year the breakout occurs.  Should we continue making that mistake, or would fantasy owners be wise to wait and instead take a high upside youngster who should be available significantly later in drafts?  For this exercise let’s use the Brewers Orlando Arcia as a comparison, though there numerous examples/options that can be used.


While Bogaerts popped a .320 average a few years ago, he’s hit .294 and .273 the past two seasons.  The big year came courtesy of a .372 BABIP so it should never have been viewed as repeatable, and a 20.8% career line drive rate helps to support the regression.  He does make consistent contact (8.2% SwStr% in ’17), which helps, but a .280 mark appears more realistic.

Arcia hit .277 in his first full season in the Majors, though his plate discipline does leave a bit to be desired (12.8% SwStr%, 38.7% O-Swing%).  That said his Whiff% shows a bit more upside: Read more

Draft Day Decisions: Why You Should Pass On Addison Russell & Select Marcus Semien

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Addison Russell is going to be a hot commodity at fantasy drafts, and it’s not only because he posted gaudy numbers last season.  Instead it’s people looking towards the upside and the potential that he lives up to the hype that has often been bestowed upon him.  Does that necessarily make him a good selection?  With a current ADP of 135.20 in NFBC formats, making him the 8th shortstop coming off the board, an argument can be made against it.

Just look at the stat comparison with Marcus Semien, who owns a current ADP of 206.20, from last season:


Those numbers are similar, with each player having an edge in a category or two.  That means the disparity is caused by projection and hype as opposed to the actual skill set.  There’s nothing wrong in doing that, but can the argument be made that Semien’s upside is just as high? Read more

Should Fantasy Owners Draft Alcides Escobar And Pass On Jose Reyes?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

No one is going to argue that Alcides Escobar is a better fantasy option than Jose Reyes.  However does it make sense to bypass Reyes (ADP of 45.3) and select Escobar (ADP of 189.8)?  The health concerns surrounding Reyes alone would be a strike against Reyes, and the alternatives you can get in the fourth round make it that much more alluring:

  • Corey Dickerson – 44.8
  • George Springer – 45.2
  • Todd Frazier – 49.7

That said, would it be surprising to find out that Escobar’s stats could actually come close to Reyes’?  Let’s take a look:


Reyes is a career .291 hitter whose lowest average since 2006 has been .279 (2009).  Sure Escobar is just a .263 hitter, but look at his marks the past three seasons: Read more

Fantasy Throwdown: Chris Carter vs. Brandon Belt: Who Is The Better Target For ’15?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Remember when Brandon Belt was viewed as a potential fantasy star?  It wasn’t that long ago, but injuries and inability have helped to derail him.  Sure he hit .289 with 17 HR back in 2013, but from a first baseman that’s obviously not enough power.

Fantasy owners are looking for someone more like the Astros’ Chris Carter, who slugged 37 HR in 2014.  Given the general lack of power around the game, it makes sense that the ADPs for the two currently are as follows:

  • Carter – 117.3
  • Belt – 200.7

Is that really the best strategy, though?  Is Carter really a better bet for 2015?  Let’s take a look:


Chris Carter
We all know that the power is there, it always has been, but what is drawing people to Carter is the improvement he showed in his average in the second half of 2014.  A strikeout machine, he posted a .252 average after the All-Star Break (.205 in the first half) thanks to a boost in line drive rate (24.0%). Read more

Fantasy Throwdown: Ben Revere vs. Shin-Soo Choo: Who’s The Better Target?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Can Shin-Soo Choo rebound in 2015?  There’s no doubt that his 2014 was a miserable campaign, even more so than anyone expected, and it has certainly impacted his ADP (he’s currently the 46th outfielder coming off the board with an average ADP of 167.5).

On the flipside Ben Revere enjoyed something of a career year, hitting .306 with 49 SB.  It’s an appealing line, but does that justify an ADP of 138.8 (38th outfielder being selected)?  Does it make him a better selection than Choo?  Let’s take a look:


Ben Revere
When healthy there is no arguing that Revere is an impressive stolen base option.  Of course last season was the first time he played over 124 games in a season so thinking that he’s a lock for 40+ SB would be a mistake.  If he gets 500 PA sure, especially in a lineup that’s in transition, but it’s not a given. Read more

Pass on Jason Heyward, Draft Austin Jackson?! It May Seem Crazy, But It’s True…

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Jason Heyward carries a big name for fantasy owners, though it’s more centered on the perception of upside as opposed to actual production.  After all he owns a career .262 average, only once has hit more than 18 HR in a season (in 2012) and has more seasons of 11 SB or fewer (three) than 20+ (two).  So the question is, when do we give up on him?  Better yet, why do we draft him so highly?

Just look at his average ADP, compared to Austin Jackson’s:

  • Jason Heyward – 84.0
  • Austin Jackson – 251.3

Would it surprise you to learn that, despite the 170 pick difference the two players are actually extremely similar?  Let’s take a look: Read more