Archive for Player Comparison

Fantasy Throwdown: Ben Revere vs. Shin-Soo Choo: Who’s The Better Target?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Can Shin-Soo Choo rebound in 2015?  There’s no doubt that his 2014 was a miserable campaign, even more so than anyone expected, and it has certainly impacted his ADP (he’s currently the 46th outfielder coming off the board with an average ADP of 167.5).

On the flipside Ben Revere enjoyed something of a career year, hitting .306 with 49 SB.  It’s an appealing line, but does that justify an ADP of 138.8 (38th outfielder being selected)?  Does it make him a better selection than Choo?  Let’s take a look:

 

Ben Revere
When healthy there is no arguing that Revere is an impressive stolen base option.  Of course last season was the first time he played over 124 games in a season so thinking that he’s a lock for 40+ SB would be a mistake.  If he gets 500 PA sure, especially in a lineup that’s in transition, but it’s not a given. Read more

Pass on Jason Heyward, Draft Austin Jackson?! It May Seem Crazy, But It’s True…

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Jason Heyward carries a big name for fantasy owners, though it’s more centered on the perception of upside as opposed to actual production.  After all he owns a career .262 average, only once has hit more than 18 HR in a season (in 2012) and has more seasons of 11 SB or fewer (three) than 20+ (two).  So the question is, when do we give up on him?  Better yet, why do we draft him so highly?

Just look at his average ADP, compared to Austin Jackson’s:

  • Jason Heyward – 84.0
  • Austin Jackson – 251.3

Would it surprise you to learn that, despite the 170 pick difference the two players are actually extremely similar?  Let’s take a look: Read more

Fantasy Throwdown: Nolan Arenado vs. Manny Machado: Which Young 3B Is The Better Bet?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Both Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado are squarely on fantasy radars, whether it be redraft leagues or dynasty formats. Both have the potential to be top options for many years to come, but who is actually the better target? Let’s try to figure it out:

2014 Statistics

Name
AB
Average
HR
RBI
Runs
SB
Nolan Arenado432.2871861582
Manny Machado327.2781232382

Manny Machado
Knee injuries have cut his last two seasons short, otherwise you have to wonder if this would even be a debate. There was nothing unrealistic in Machado’s average last season (20.5% line drive rate, .317 BABIP, 19.2% strikeout rate) and he showed some growth in the power department.

Is a 15.0% HR/FB believable? His average distance on non-groundballs of 267.986 was up from 262.402 in 2013 and he’s still just 22-years old. Would it really be a surprise that he’s showing a bit more power? Read more

2015 Fantasy Throwdown: Hunter Pence vs. Alex Gordon

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

They squared off in the 2014 World Series, but who is actually the better option heading into 2015 fantasy drafts?  While a lot could change between now and draft day, it’s definitely an interesting comparison to make.

First let’s compare the numbers from last season, which are extremely similar:

Statistic
Hunter Pence
Alex Gordon
PA708643
Average.277.266
Home Runs2019
RBI7474
Runs10687
Stolen Bases1312

Outside of the runs scored, there clearly wasn’t much difference. So, with that in mind, let’s take a look at the upside in each category to help reach our decision.

Power
Pence has hit at least 20 HR in seven consecutive seasons, including four of at least 25. While his power was down last season, he did hit 27 in his first year in San Francisco though he has shown a dramatic home/road split in the two years since the trade: Read more

Bounce Back or Bust: Could Jason Castro Be A Viable Option In 2015?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

After breaking out in 2013, with a line of .276 with 18 HR and 56 RBI over 491 PA, a lot was expected of Jason Castro in 2014. Always a player who hit the ball hard (25.2% line drive rate), there was a lot to like. Unfortunately we witnessed a regression across the board:

465 At Bats
.222 Batting Average (103 Hits)
14 Home Runs
56 RBI
43 Runs
1 Stolen Bases
.286 On Base Percentage
.366 Slugging Percentage
.294 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The first thing to note is his big drop in average. His strikeout number wasn’t great in 2013 (26.5%), but it jumped to 29.5% last season. In fact he didn’t have a month below 27% all season, and hasn’t since June 2013. In other words, expecting a major change is a mistake. Read more

Rest of Season: Dustin Pedroia vs. Anthony Rendon

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Prior to the season this would’ve been a ridiculous debate, as Pedroia was widely viewed as a Top 5 option at his position. However, at this stage you could likely make an argument either way (all stats are through Saturday):

  • Pedroia – .266, 4 HR, 27 RBI, 41 R, 2 SB
  • Rendon – .274, 11 HR, 42 RBI, 45 R, 5 SB

There’s little question that Rendon has been the better player, thus far, but can he maintain it? Is he the better option over the rest of the season?  Let’s take a look:

 

Pedroia
The question is, what’s exactly happened? A .300 career hitter, his drop in average has been due to poor luck more than anything. While his strikeouts are up, would a 12.0% mark really concern anyone? The problem is in his BABIP, which currently sits at .293. Considering he actually owns a career best 24.2% line drive rate, expecting an improvement should be easy. Making it even easier is the fact that he’s had a mark of 23.4% or better in each month.

Read more