Three Hot:

1. Ian Kinsler - Texas Rangers
   There was a lot to like from the Rangers last night, from their offensive explosion to Derek Holland (5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 8 K, W), who has a chance to emerge in the Rangers rotation not only for the final few weeks of 2010, but for 2011 as well.  One of the most notable performances, however, was Kinsler’s.  He went 2-5 with 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 R and 1 SB, doing a little bit of everything while hitting out of the leadoff spot in Elvis Andrus’ absence.  It was only his third game batting first in ‘10, and he showed us just how dynamic of a player he can be when healthy.  Could he stick in the leadoff spot even Andrus returns to the lineup?  It’s doubtful, but you never really know.  Still, seeing this type of performance gives us hope that he can be the type of player down the stretch that we have been waiting for all year long.
2. Troy Tulowitzki - Colorado Rockies
   Wasn’t he supposed to be having problems with his power thanks to the wrist injury?  He hit another two home runs last night, giving him five home runs in his last six games.  In his last seven, he has 13 RBI.  We all know that he is one of the elite players in the game and has the potential to keep this hot stretch going for the final few weeks of the season.  Taking him early in your draft doesn’t look quite as bad now, does it?
3. Colby Rasmus - St. Louis Cardinals
   Since the drama unfolded between Rasmus and Tony La Russa, Rasmus has suddenly found himself in the lineup everyday.  Coincidence?  Who knows, but fantasy owners have to hope that he takes advantage of the opportunity that is now being awarded him.  He either does his thing and proves that he belongs to be a mainstay in the middle of the Cardinals lineup, or he struggles.  Over the last four games he’s gone 5-13 with 1 RBI and 2 R.  Time will tell if he can really turn it up, but fantasy owners have to relish this time and keep him active in all five-outfielder formats.

Three Not:

1. Derek Jeter - New York Yankees
   After going 0-4 yesterday, Jeter’s average fell to .262.  In fact, he hasn’t had a multi-hit game since August 21.  In that time he’s gone 8-61 (.131) with 1 HR and 3 RBI.  Yes, he’s still been able to score a few runs, but he clearly isn’t performing up to the standards fantasy owners have become accustomed to.  The struggles have stretched even further then that, however.  Since June 1 he’s gone 84-355, a .237 average.  It’s tough to move him to your bench, because you have to think that he’s going to wake up sooner or later.
2. Josh Johnson - Florida Marlins
   Having already been scratched from his scheduled start on Friday, the Miami Herald’s Clark Spencer is reporting that, “The Marlins have announced that Josh Johnson has right shoulder inflammation and a mid-back strain, but that there is no structural damage.” (click here for the full post).  While that would seem like good news, as Spencer points out, there is currently no word on when, or if, Johnson could take the mound again.  Considering where the Marlins are, there is a very real possibility that they shut him down for the season.  That certainly is not what fantasy owners want to hear, but start planning, just in case.
3. Clayton Kershaw - Los Angeles Dodgers
   According to mlb.com (click here for the article), the Los Angeles Dodgers will push Clayton Kershaw’s next start back to Tuesday in an effort to protect his arm.  Instead of pitching against the Astros on Saturday (John Ely will take this start), he will take on the Giants in San Francisco.  As of now, they are saying that there will be no other adjustments, but having thrown 183.1 innings and with the Dodgers more or less out of contention, we will need to watch this closely.  He’s a must start option, regardless, so simply adjust your roster plans for now.

What are your thoughts of these stories?

Stephen Drew has been supposed to be the next big thing at shortstop for a couple years running now. His 21 HR season in 2008 was deemed just a sign of the things to come. Instead he hasn’t improved at all on those numbers the last two years, but has taken a step back from them instead. The last two years everyone has asked; Is this the year Stephen Drew will be a top 5 shortstop? Now people are asking; Is Stephen Drew still a top 10 shortstop? Drew hasn’t been bad, but he’s been far from what was expected of him. While many people have written him off, I cannot help but still wonder if we will ever see the true potential of Stephen Drew realized on the major league level.

Let’s look at what Drew has done so far this year:

12 HR’s

50 RBI

73 R’s

6 SB’s

.268 BA

.305 BABIP

Basically Drew has been so far this year what he has always been. He is a career .270 hitter with a career .305 BABIP. His strikeout rate has increased some from last year, but is quite similar to the previous years as he is on pace to reach 100 K’s once again. He is walking more which is a good sign and helps account for the increase in run production as he has already topped last year’s total of 71. However taking a few more walks isn’t enough to make any of us believers I don’t think.

The question of Drew’s relevance might not even still be a question had it not been for last month. The hope we do have left comes largely as a result of what Drew did in the month of August. Entering last month Drew was starting to lose some at-bats and hadn’t hit a homerun since May 19^th. A stretch that covered over 200 at bats. Than all of the sudden August hit and Drew’s numbers for the month looked like this:

8 HR’s

19 RBI

25 R’s

.310 BA

1.009 OPS

Just when it seemed like it might be time to give up Drew went and did this and now we’re asking once again if there is still a top 10 shortstop in Stephen Drew, and potentially still a top 5? This was just one month out of a whole season, but it shows that Drew is still capable, he just has to do it consistently. It might be fleeting, but I still see 25 - 30 HR potential in this guy, I know that might make me crazy, but I think it’s there.

There isn’t much power coming from the shortstop position and so what the potential Drew offers there is always going to be tempting and it’s always going to keep him in the hunt for the top 10 spot. I think a lot of people are getting caught up in what they thought Drew would become and it’s making what he is doing seem worse than what it is.

Even if he doesn’t improve and never lives up to the hype he is still good for 15 – 20 HR’s, 70 – 80 RBI and a .270 batting average. That’s still a top 10 shortstop. And while the potential might be fleeting, it doesn’t appear to be gone to me and because of that I will probably get sucked right back in next year and target Drew soon after the top 5 is gone.

What do you think of Stephen Drew? Have you written him off after a couple of below average years or are you, like me, ready to buy once again next season?

Three Hot:

1. Vernon Wells - Toronto Blue Jays
   He went 3-3 with 2 HR, 2 RBI and 2 R, giving him four home runs over his last three games.  Over that span he’s gone an impressive 6-11 with 4 HR, 8 RBI and 5 R.  He got off to a great start, but had just 4 HR and 22 RBI between July and August.  At this point, it looks like he has rediscovered the swing that helped him to 19 HR over the season’s first three months.
2. Ben Zobrist - Tampa Bay Rays
   The power had completely disappeared this season, but after going 2-3 with 1 HR, 3 RBI and 2 R, he’s now homered in two of his last three games.  Is it enough to ease our concerns or make up for a season’s worth of frustration?  Most likely not, but it certainly is better late then never.  His HR/FB entering yesterday had been 6.0%, after posting marks of 17.4% and 17.5% the prior two years.  It’s not hard to imagine a power surge down the stretch and into the playoffs, helping to rebuild his perceived value moving forward.  He certainly has the potential to have a big last few weeks, so just continue to run him out there.  Luckily, his 23 SB has helped to make him viable without the power.
3. Jim Thome - Minnesota Twins
   He certainly is making the most of his everyday AB, isn’t he?  He went 1-1 with 1 HR, 1 RBI and 3 R, homering for the third straight day.  In fact, in his last three games he has 4 HR, 7 RBI and 8 R.  That’s a heck of a three game stretch and if you are in need of power, he’s worth using while he’s scorching hot.  I wouldn’t get overly attached, however.

Three Not:

1. Mike Napoli - Los Angeles Angels
   Mike Scioscia already tries to find a reason to leave Napoli on the bench, now comes news that the Angels have recalled Hank Conger (catcher) and Mark Trumbo (first base).  Of course, those are the two positions that Napoli plays, giving Scioscia two more excuses sit Napoli down more often then nott.  The problem for fantasy owners is that Napoli provides significant power from a catcher, with 22 HR in just 387 AB, so you have little option but to leave him in your lineup (especially in two catcher formats).  Just be prepared to be frustrated when he finds himself on the bench.
2. Miguel Cabrera - Detroit Tigers
   After missing time late last week with tendonitis in his biceps, Cabrera was again forced out of the Tigers lineup with the problem according to mlb.com (click here for the article).  While he is currently listed at day-to-day, you have to think that the Tigers will err on the side of caution with their franchise player.  At 13 games behind the Twins, there really is no reason for them not to.  Fantasy owners are going to have to check the lineup, but I would anticipate being without him for a few days.
3. Yunesky Maya - Washington Nationals
   After signing a four-year, $8 million contract out of Cuba and winning the equivalent of the Cy Young Award in the Cuban National Series last season, there were grand expectations.  However, his Major League debut was an inauspicious one, giving up a three-run home run to Ike Davis in the first inning.  He finished with a line of four earned runs on five hits and two walks, striking out three, over five innings.  He was severely out-pitched by fellow rookie Dillon Gee (7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 4 K, W) of the Met.  It is just one start, however, so don’t push the panic button quite yet.

What are your thoughts from yesterday?

Then, in August, he was given an opportunity to play on a daily basis and has exploded.  Just look at what he had done through Sunday:

119 At Bats
.319 Batting Average (38 Hits)
10 Home Runs
25 RBI
25 Runs
1 Stolen Base
.372 On Base Percentage
.630 Slugging Percentage
.346 Batting Average on Balls in Play

You can argue that the BABIP is slightly inflated, which it is.  So, maybe he’s not a .320 hitter, but is that really that big of a problem?  If we assumed he had a BABIP of .321, all else being equal, his average would be .303.

During that span he has posted a strikeout rate of 23.5%, which is similar to his full year (25.7%) and career (25.7%) marks.  In fact, last season he posted a 23.0% strikeout rate, so there is really no reason to think that he can’t replicate what he’s been showing.

What it really boils down to is the power.  Can Raburn continue to hit balls out of the park at his recent stunning rate?

September is too small of a sample size (2 HR in 15 AB), so let’s take a look at August (8 HR in 104 AB) to give us a better idea.

• Fly ball rate - 50.6%
• HR/FB - 20.0%

Clearly, it’s hard to buy into both rates, but you have to look at the law of averages, especially in the HR/FB department.  Overall this season his rate is at a very believable 11.7%.  He was so bad early on, playing in spurts like he was, that his August hot streak simply evened things out.

The old adage is that baseball is a game of averages, and Raburn’s streak could simply be the perfect example of that.  The HR/FB is not concerning in the least.

The fly ball rate has been high all year long, currently sitting at 49.5%.  While it is higher then his career mark, it is along the same line as last year’s 47.7%.  For his minor league career, he posted a mark of 44.2%, so there is reason to believe that it is a number that he can maintain, or at least be close to.

With that said, given his eligibility at both 2B and OF, Raburn is a player that fantasy owners should want to grab, if he is still available.  Surprisingly, he is still available in many formats:

• CBS Sports - owned in 56% of leagues
• ESPN - owned in 72.9% of leagues
• Yahoo - owned in 48% of leagues

The numbers he’s posted this season are believable and, from a second baseman, he has the potential to give you plenty of power.  Over the past two seasons he’s had 541 AB, about a full season’s worth, and he has 28 HR and 93 RBI.

Clearly, he should be added for the remainder of this season and if the Tigers finally decide to give him regular playing time in 2011, he should be usable in all formats.  At this point, how could they not?

What are your thoughts on Raburn?  Is what he’s done this season believable?  Do you think he will be fantasy viable in 2011?

Make sure to check out our extremely early 2011 rankings:

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops
• Outfielders
• Closers

Three Up:

1. Danny Espinoza - Shortstop - Washington Nationals
   To say that he’s gotten his Major League career off with a bang would be an understatement.  He had a strong showing in the Minor Leagues, splitting time between Double and Triple-A (.268, 22 HR, 69 RBI, 80 R, 25 SB), and opened up going 5-11 with 1 HR prior to Monday’s game.  That’s when he exploded, going 4-5 with 2 HR, 6 RBI and 2 R, including a grand slam against the Mets.  He has the potential to be the Nationals second baseman (or shortstop) of the future and it’s likely that he gets regular AB down the stretch over Adam Kennedy.  At this point, how can they keep him out of the lineup?  Be careful, as he posted a 24.1% strikeout rate in the minor leagues, so there is a potential for him to struggle in the average department.  With his potential combination of power (which he’s already shown) and speed (which he has yet to have an opportunity to display), however, he is worth taking a flyer on for the final few weeks if you need a middle infielder.  We’ll be taking a closer look at him in the next few days as well.
2. Mike Stanton - Outfielder- Florida Marlins
   He had struggled for a long time, not just with the long ball either.  Forget about the fact that he had one home run since August 14.  Over that span he had gone 7-66, likely causing many owners to shove him over to their bench.  However, those who stayed patient were rewarded yesterday as he went deep in both halves of the Marlins double header.  For the day, he went 4-9 with 2 HR, 4 RBI and 2 R and hopefully can keep this hot streak going over the final few weeks of the season.  He has too much power to give up on, so just continue to keep him active and hope for the best.
3. Adalberto Mendez - Starting Pitcher - Florida Marlins
   It was an impressive Major League debut, tossing six innings of one-hit baseball against the Philadelphia Phillies to get the victory.  The thing is, he had been spending time as both a starter and reliever at Triple-A (only nine starts in 28 appearances), pitching to a 4.14 ERA.  As a starter, he had a 4.46 ERA with 39 Ks over 40.1 innings.  Over that span he walked 3.7 batters per nine innings, as well.  In other words, while it was an extremely impressive debut, I wouldn’t be running out to claim him on waivers quite yet.

Three Down:

1. Mike Pelfrey - Starting Pitcher - New York Mets
   It had looked like he had righted the ship, but things have once again fallen off for Pelfrey.  After allowing 6 ER on 5 H and 3 BB, striking out 1, over 3.2 innings he has given up 10 ER over 8.2 IP in his last two outings.  You want to believe that he’s worth using, given how tremendous he was early in the season, but it’s just impossible to trust him.  His next start comes against the Phillies, who he has a 4.50 ERA against in three starts, and should be on your bench in all formats.
2. Jeff Niemann - Starting Pitcher - Tampa Bay Rays
   Remember when Niemann was among the best pitchers in the league?  In fact, at the All-Star Break he was 7-2 with a 2.77 ERA.  There was a lot of luck involved and things have certainly gone the other way.  Since returning from the DL it has been one debacle after another.  He’s gone 10.0 innings, allowing 23 ER and is now in jeopardy of losing his spot in the rotation.  If you are in need of a roster spot, he’s certainly eligible to be cut at this point.
3. Mat Latos - Starting Pitcher - San Diego Padres
   A tough break for fantasy owners, as Latos was scratched from his scheduled start last night due to a bout with the flu.  He is expected to take the ball on Tuesday, so let’s hope that’s the case.  If he does, he will remain in line to be a two-start option, though with extremely more difficult matchups.  Today he will draw Clayton Kershaw, with Tim Lincecum going up against him on Sunday.

What are your thoughts on these players?  Who else had a significant change in value from yesterday’s games?

10 Wins
146.1 Innings
4.49 ERA
1.38 WHIP
178 Strikeouts (10.95 K/9)
66 Walks (4.06 BB/9)
.348 BABIP

You can see right off the bat that his ERA and WHIP were both affected by poor luck.  The BABIP is clearly inflated, while his strand rate was also relatively unlucky at 69.0%.  There are less then 30 pitchers who qualify for the ERA title who have posted a strand rate below 70% at this point, so while it isn’t incredibly unlucky, he was in the minority there.

You would think that those two numbers would make me overwhelmingly favorable when it comes to Morrow moving forward and to an extent I am.  Unfortunately, you can’t consider those two marks independent of his other numbers.

Control has always been a question, with a minor league BB/9 of 4.4.  It’s something that has to be kept in mind, because it is going to keep him from being a big contributor in the WHIP department.  It is possible that he is improving, when you couple this year’s mark to last year’s 3.8 at Triple-A.  However, the latter was over just 55.0 innings (10 starts) as he was being stretched out to return to the rotation.  It’s hard to put much stock in it.

You also have to wonder if he will be able to post this type of huge strikeout rate.  He’s always had strikeout potential, but in the minor leagues he was at just 8.1 K/9.  Granted, he did not spend much time there (101.2 innings), and half of that was last season (6.5 K/9).

Still, maintaining a near 11 strikeout per nine inning pace is hard to imagine.  Since 2005 there have been only two pitchers (who qualified for the ERA title) to finish with a K/9 of 10.5 or better:

• Erik Bedard had a 10.9 K/9 in 2007
• Tim Lincecum had a 10.5 K/9 in 2008

That’s it.  When you look at it in that perspective, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him regress closer to 10, if not slightly below it.  He’s still likely to be among of the elite strikeout pitchers in the game, but it’s almost impossible to see him maintain this year’s mark.

A decrease in strikeouts is going to lead to a regression in WHIP, because there are going to be even more balls put into play.

The other thing to consider is the division he plays in.  Just look at how he fared against the AL East in 2009:

• Baltimore Orioles - 2-0, 4.50 ERA, 19 K in 18.0 IP
• Boston Red Sox - 0-1, 15.88 ERA, 8 K in 5.2 IP
• New York Yankees - 1-1, 5.93 ERA, 40 K in 27.1 IP
• Tampa Bay Rays - 2-1, 1.23 ERA, 26 K in 22.0 IP

Outside of Tampa Bay, there are legitimate concerns with his performances.  Obviously, they are small sample sizes, but they are worrisome nonetheless.  We all know the AL East is going to remain among the toughest divisions in the game, so seeing him struggle there will certainly reflect against his overall numbers.

With all that in mind, let’s take a look at an extremely early 2011 projection for him (this will likely be amended as the offseason progresses and more things become clear):

180.0 IP, 14 W, 3.95 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 190 K (9.50 K/9), 78 BB (3.90 BB/9)

Those are certainly impressive numbers and ones that any owner should want to have.  The strikeouts alone make him extremely usable, but be cautious.  The ERA and WHIP could really go either way.  The numbers above are based on a BABIP of .310, but if he struggles there again, the numbers will inflate.

I’m also banking on another slight improvement in his control.  If he regresses there, all bets are off.

Like I’ve said, I think he certainly is keeper worthy, depending on your league rules, as he has emerged as a pitcher with tremendous potential.  If he pitched anywhere but the AL East he’d be a no-brainer, but unfortunately we can’t have everything.

Make sure to check out our extremely early 2011 rankings:

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops
• Outfielders
• Closers

So, with that said, let’s take a look at the players available to you this week:

Five-Star Options:

• Ubaldo Jimenez - Colorado Rockies - vs. Cin, vs. Ari

Four-Star Options:

• Tommy Hanson - Atlanta Braves - @ Pit, vs. Stl
• Dan Haren - Los Angeles Angels - vs. Cle, vs. Sea
• Tim Hudson - Atlanta Braves - @ Pit, vs. Stl
• Clayton Kershaw - Los Angeles Dodgers - @ SD, @ Hou
• Mat Latos - San Diego Padres - vs. LAD, vs. SF
• Tim Lincecum - San Francisco Giants - @ Ari, @ SD
• Roy Oswalt - Houston Astros - vs. Fla, @ NYM
• Wandy Rodriguez - Houston Astros - @ CHC, vs. LAD
• Max Scherzer - Detroit Tigers - vs. CWS, vs. Bal
• Justin Verlander - Detroit Tigers - vs. CWS, vs. Bal

Three-Star Options:

• Brett Anderson - Oakland Athletics - vs. Sea, vs. Bos
• Johnny Cueto - Cincinnati Reds - @ Col, vs. Pit
• Yovani Gallardo - Milwaukee Brewers - vs. Stl, vs. CHC
• Edwin Jackson - Chicago White Sox - @ Det, vs. KC
• Cliff Lee - Texas Rangers - @ Tor, vs. NYY
• Shaun Marcum - Toronto Blue Jays - vs. Tex, vs. TB
• Ricky Romero - Toronto Blue Jays - vs. Tex, vs. TB
• Anibal Sanchez - Florida Marlins - @ Phi, @ Was
• Kevin Slowey - Minnesota Twins - vs. KC, @ Cle

Two-Star Options:

• A.J. Burnett - New York Yankees - vs. Bal, @ Tex
• Madison Bumgarner - San Francisco Giants - @ Ari, @ SD
• Tommy Hunter - Texas Rangers - @ Tor, vs. NYY
• Ian Kennedy - Arizona Diamondbacks - vs. SF, @ Col
• Jeff Niemann - Tampa Bay Rays - @ Bos, @ Tor
• Mike Pelfrey - New York Mets - @ Was, vs. Phi
• Jake Westbrook - St. Louis Cardinals - @ Mil, @ Atl

One-Star Options:

• Jake Arrieta - Baltimore Orioles - @ NYY, @ Det
• Carlos Carrasco - Cleveland Indians - @ LAA, vs. Min
• Jhoulys Chacin - Colorado Rockies - vs. Cin, vs. Ari
• Casey Coleman - Chicago Cubs - vs. Hou, @ Mil
• Nelson Figueroa - Houston Astros - @ CHC, vs. LAD
• Aaron Harang - Cincinnati Reds - @ Col, vs. Pit
• Jeff Karstens - Pittsburgh Pirates - vs. Atl, @ Cin
• Carlos Monasterios - Los Angeles Dodgers - @ SD, @ Hou
• Sean O’Sullivan - Kansas City Royals - @ Min, @ CWS
• Jason Vargas - Seattle Mariners - @ Oak, @ LAA
• Jordan Zimmerman - Washington Nationals - vs. NYM, vs. Fla

Scheduling Notes:

• Jon Lester, who was scheduled to have two-starts this week, may have lost that opportunity due to Friday’s rain out.  Now, the Sox could turn to Tim Wakefield (or someone else) on Wednesday, leaving Clay Buchholz, John Lackey & Josh Beckett to go next weekend in Oakland.  It’s a tough break for owners, but Lester remains a must start option regardless.
• Freddy Garcia also likely lost his two-start status, but he was only borderline usable to begin with.  No loss really for fantasy owners.
• The Cardinals will go with either Kyle Lohse or Jeff Suppan on Tuesday, though it doesn’t matter.  Neither should be used outside of deeper NL-only formats.

Thoughts:

• It hasn’t been a one or two start hot streak for Max Scherzer.  Over the last 30 days (44.0 innings), he has posted a 1.23 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 40 Ks.  He is certainly a most use option, especially with the Orioles later in the week.
• We all know that Dan Haren has not been the pitcher we expected this season, but he has two of the most favorable matchups fantasy owners could ask for.  Hopefully he can finally string together a few good starts in a row, right?  He’s allowed just 1 ER over his last 13 innings.
• Does one good start from A.J. Burnett make you trust him?  Then again, the start wasn’t that great, allowing three earned runs over six innings of work against Oakland.  While he’s looked good against Texas this season (1.93 ERA over 14.0 innings), that start really has me worried, especially given his recent nosedive.
• Ian Kennedy has been pitching exceptionally well as of late.  He hasn’t allowed more then three earned runs in his last four starts, including seven innings of one-hit ball, striking out 12 in the process.  While he’s struggled against the Rockies this year (5.06 ERA over three starts), he’s certainly worth the gamble with the way he’s been pitching.  Still, those struggles hold him back from being a three-star option.
• Mike Pelfrey has a 4.50 ERA against the Phillies in three starts this year.  Despite the start coming at home, it’s hard to consider him a must start option with the matchup looming.
• Wandy Rodriguez has been among the best pitchers in the game of late.  Over his last eight starts he has allowed 6 ER over 55.1 innings, only once allowing more then one earned run (two earned runs against the Marlins).  He has rebounded in a big way from his early season struggles, to say the least.
• Cliff Lee as a three-star option?  His recent struggles and news of a back problem have to have owners worrying, however.  In fact, word is that he may miss his start on Tuesday, so keep that in mind and keep a close eye on the news prior to your roster deadline.
• At home this year Mat Latos has a 2.08 ERA.  It doesn’t matter who the opponent is, he’s a tremendous option any time he takes the mound at Petco Park.

What are your thoughts?  Who have I ranked too high?  Who do you think will outperform my rankings?

Make sure to check out our extremely early 2011 rankings:

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops
• Outfielders
• Closers

From a fantasy perspective, Thole doesn’t offer a lot at first glance, but that doesn’t mean that he should be ignored, especially in two-catcher formats.  First, let’s take a look at what he has done thus far in 2010:

125 At Bats
.288 Batting Average (36 Hits)
2 Home Runs
11 RBI
9 Runs
1 Stolen Bases
.369 On Base Percentage
.384 Slugging Percentage
.321 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The power is the first number that jumps out at you.  The problem is, the 2005 13th round draft pick has never shown much upside in that department.  In 1,321 minor league AB prior to 2010 he had just 8 HR, hitting more then one in a season just once (5 at High Single-A in 2008).

At Triple-A this season, his first time at the level (despite getting a look in the Majors in 2009), he had just 2 HR in 165 AB.

Maybe if he were hitting a lot of doubles there would be more intrigue in that department, but that hasn’t been there either.  He’s never had more then 29 doubles in a season (and has four in the Major Leagues).  No luck there.

His minor league career fly ball rate is just 32.9%.  At the Major League level the past two seasons he’s posted the following marks:

• 2009 - 20.0%
• 2010 - 35.5%

No luck there, either, as he was at 29.3% in 2010 just a week ago.

In other words, he is not going to hit much power in the Major Leagues.  That’s not going to kill his value, but it certainly doesn’t help matters.

He does do a good job of getting on base, with a minor league OBP of .379 heading into this season.  He walked 175 times in that span, an 11.7% rate.  This year with the Mets he’s posted a 10.6% mark.

He has also always been able to hit for average, thanks to a good contact rate (he had struck out just 165 times heading into this season).  He may not be a .300 hitter, given his inflated BABIP, but he easily should be a .285+ hitter.

The thing about that is, hitting at the bottom of the Mets lineup, he just hasn’t been producing runs.  There haven’t been RBI.  There haven’t been runs scored.  He needs to provide something there to offset the lack of power.  If he were slotted into the #2 hole, things may be different, but that just doesn’t make sense for the Mets.

The bottom line is you have a catcher who is going to hit for a good average and little else.  Does that sound appealing?  He is, at best, a low-end option in two-catcher formats, but you would be better off taking the flier on someone who could provide help in more then one category.

What are your thoughts on Thole?  Am I being too difficult on him?  Do you think he holds value?

Make sure to check out our extremely early 2011 rankings:

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops
• Outfielders
• Closers

Every September teams across the major leagues call up guys from their minor league systems. A lot of those teams are out of the race for the playoffs and have an eye on next season. This is a situation many of you might be familiar with. It’s never fun to be working on next year’s draft strategy before this season ends, but if you’re in a keeper league, there may still be work for you to do this season.

Figuring out who you want to draft next year is all well and good, but maybe instead of eyeing next year’s draft pool you should be doing some September call ups of your own. Instead of figuring out which sleepers you want to pay a little extra for next year, maybe you could be grabbing those sleepers off the waiver wire this year and keeping them for a $1 going into next year. There aren’t many advantages to being out of the hunt for a title in fantasy sports, but this is one of them. You can make moves for next year without worrying about this year.

So with this concept in mind, here are three fantasy September call ups I am targeting as potential keepers.

Mat Laporta: On the whole this season has been a bit disappointing for Mat Laporta. He showed flashes of why he was a top 30 prospect and why he was traded for CC Sabathia, but the Indians and fantasy owners we’re hoping for significant improvement from last year to this one and they didn’t get it. However, this year shouldn’t be enough to give up on or forget about Laporta and his potential. The Indians are going to be penciling him right back in at first base next year, as they have too much invested in him to give up this soon.

When a prospect like this reaches the major leagues and struggles out of the gate it’s easy to forget about that potential they possess. We didn’t see much this year that we didn’t see last year, other than an increase in walks taken. But Laporta still has the potential to be a .270 - .280 hitter with 25 HR’s and 100 RBI. First Base is deep and so he might not crack the top ten there anytime soon, but keeping a guy with this kind of potential ability for just $1 might be a gamble that pays off in a big way next year.

Lorenzo Cain: He’s owned in less than one percent of leagues on ESPN and for this year he probably doesn’t have a ton of value beyond NL Only leagues. But keep an eye out for this guy next year. Cain will be given the chance to compete for the starting center field job with Chris Dickerson and Carlos Gomez and the way he is playing right now he may have the inside track. Not to mention Corey Hart may be gone opening up another spot in that outfield. Cain walks more, strikes out less and is just as proficient on the bases as the other two. He doesn’t have the same hype behind him that both those guys had at one point, but I have a feeling Cain may be the guy next year. And if he is he could bring an average close to .300 with 25 – 30 steals. And let’s not forget that if he fills out that frame a bit more in the off season double digit power isn’t out of the realm of possibility either.

Eric Young Jr: I don’t think the Rockies are sold on Clint Barmes as an everyday player. Ideally they’d like to see him as trade bait or a utility guy. Jonathan Herrera has looked good, but this is Eric Young’s spot to lose next season. He’s 25 and it’s time for him to take control of this position next season or the Rockies will be looking for other options. His sub .250 average combined between the majors and AAA this year is a bit disconcerting, but one might attribute his health issues to part of it as he hasn’t been able to really get into a groove this season. The speed is for real as evidence by his 8 steals in the month of August and he is completely capable of swiping 40 on a year to year basis in the major leagues. Eric Young is going to be given every chance in the world to take the 2B position in Colorado and run with it, literally. And if he can capitalize, just imagine the runs he could score as the leadoff hitter in that lineup. That thought combined with his world class speed is enough to make me willing to risk $1 to keep him for next year. He’s out there in 90% of ESPN leagues right now.

There’s no need to write this year off as a complete loss even if you aren’t going to win anything. You have the ability to analyze your roster and load up with potential keepers. What’s the worst that happens if you pick one of these guys up and then decide not to keep him? Nothing. If your chilling out at the bottom of your league than it’s all reward and no risk at this point. So take a chance on some guys who could breakout next year and don’t worry about having to outbid anyone for them in your auction next year.