Kevin, I’m glad you brought up auctions, it’s a completely different strategy there all together and one that I also plan on covering. One of my favorite leagues to participate in is an auction league and agree that you never risk a lot of money in a risky player, but if you get a steal it’s very much worth it, but that’ll be a discussion for another day.

That said, at the end of the auction when players are going for $1 or $2 then I do take a chance on rookies or guys that could make a difference. Back in 2007 I took Reggie Willits at the end of the auction for $1 and he ended up stealing almost 30 bases. Guys like that are huge in keeper type of leagues.

I have targeted players in every round and they are the only group of players for whom I will reach to draft generally. To maximize value I limit my willingness to reach by no more than two rounds, but keep an eye on the market to gauge how far they might fall. A good example from this last year was Tim Lincecum. He was one of my primary targets and I had him as a 10th round value. I took him in the ninth.

Veteran players I look for are guys who are not necessarily sexy, but who get the job done. Then I wait for opportunities to pick up these guys AFTER they should have been drafted. An ‘08 example was Bobby Abreu. Had him valued in the sixth (I think), but took him in the eighth for a healthy profit.

Finally, potential breakout players are notoriously difficult to judge with regard to their possible draft position. Since you have virtually no idea how your opponents value these wild cards, drafting them well requires close attention to draft evolution. If I think really highly of them they become targets, so in general I only take potential breakouts if draft conditions make it feasible. I know that is kind of cryptic, but this is the hardest group to draft well in my opinion.

In short, I take into account considerations of risk and reliability when preparing my draft plan. I will take risky players early if I am convinced of their potential (i.e., Lincecum) and I will wait on reliable players if they fall into a good profit zone (i.e., Abreu). On the other hand, if someone takes my targets before I have a chance to, but there are not any reliable vets on my draft board proximate to their value, then I’ll take a stab on a potential breakout.

It’s all about flexibility on draft day — that’s why I do a million mocks before the big day…

Big O, I do like the strategy, but I would never avoid a player who falls to me because I’m looking for a sleeper in the last few rounds. What happens if someone jumps ahead of you and picks the player you were looking at? Then, instead of having a star, you are left with nothing. To me, you never ignore a gift. If Jimmy Rollins falls to me, I’m going to take him, no matter who I think I may be able to get later on. It’s just not a gamble I’d take.

every year i look for break-out or re-bound candidates that, in
all likelihood will go unnoticed or over-looked by most of the general public …. you guys call them “sleepers” .

for break-out candidates , i focus on rookies , paying particular attention to september call-ups whose teams’ are looking to insert them into their opening day line-up .

for re-bound candidates , i look for veterans who are coming back from surgery and who remain with their original teams . it is important to note that i shy away from players who are less than one full year removed from their surgeries , focusing , instead , on what i call 2nd-year candidates .

once identified , i build my draft teams using a bottom-up , or backward approach , by attempting to select them as late in the draft as possible .

this year , i have ear-marked two such candidates . it just so happens that one is a rookie and the other is a veteran . both are position players .

come draft day , i will select the best possible players at every position EXCEPT these two positions …. (almost synonymous to “punting” a category.)
that means that even if jimmy rollins becomes available to me in the 2nd or 3rd round , i will pass on him if my targeted player is a SS (which i hopefully will get in round 18).

in an attempt to maximize true value from my candidates , the focus of my early draft selections can be construed as a hedge against my late round (riskier) picks , i suppose .

also , i do not draft back-ups , believing instead that , if my candidates do not pan out , suitable waiver wire or free agent acquisitions are available for minimal cost or expense .
if not , the worst case scenario is that i will be able to find multiple trade interests because of the heightened selections of my other picks (my areas of strength).

in a way , i guess you could say that i off-set my risks by taking less risk .

your thought and comments are most appreciated .
regards .

p.s. this plan has been formatted for h2h non-keeper leagues .
keeper leagues and auction-style drafts require modification , but the premise is basically the same .