Archive for October 31, 2012

Beginners Luck?: A Look At Wade Miley’s Rookie Season And Future Potential

by Will Overton

Going into last season we heard an awful lot about the pitching prospects coming up through the Diamondbacks ranks. We heard about Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs and even Patrick Corbin. We didn’t hear as much about Wade Miley who surprised everyone with his big season.

Now the question is how real was it and can he do it again? In fact, can he become even better or is he a flash in the pan? The esteemed Professor named Miley as one of the Diamondbacks top five prospects for last season, but for the most part his rise to the majors was pretty quiet. So maybe it was just one of those lucky seasons.

Let’s look at the numbers Miley put up this season before we discuss how sustainable they are:

194.2 Innings Pitched
3.33 ERA
1.18 WHIP
16 Wins
144 Strikeouts
37 Walks Read more

2012 Season Look Back: What Should We Make Of Alex Gordon’s Strange Season?

by Will Overton

What an odd career it’s been so far for the Royals 28 year old left fielder Alex Gordon. Six seasons ago he came to the major leagues as a much hyped, much talked about future star of the game. A couple of long struggling seasons later everyone is ready to throw in the towel on the future of Kansas City baseball.

In his fifth season in the bigs Gordon finally breaks loose at a new position on the field, left field. Five seasons into his career and he’s finally the .300 hitter we all imagined him to be with 101 R, 23 HR, 87 RBI and 17 SB. It took a little longer than we all thought, but it looked like Gordon’s talent had finally blossomed and we were ready to see a top 20 fantasy outfield emerge.

This year was the highly anticipated follow-up performance. Let’s just take a look at the stats Gordon put up in the 2012 season before we go into depth reflecting on them:

642 At-Bats
.294 Batting Average
.368 On-Base Percentage
93 Runs
14 Home Runs Read more

Prospect Review: Should Fantasy Owners Write Off Brett Jackson?

Brett Jackson has long been viewed as a potential impact player for the Chicago Cubs.  He finally got his opportunity to show his talents in 2012, but I use the term “talents” loosely:

120 At Bats
.175 Batting Average (21 Hits)
4 Home Runs
9 RBI
14 Runs
0 Stolen Bases
.303 On Base Percentage
.342 Slugging Percentage
.298 BABIP

So, what exactly happened?  The bottom line is Jackson was quickly exposed as someone who was susceptible to a significant number of strikeouts.  To be exact, he struck out an unbelievable 41.5% of the time, even worse than the lofty levels that Adam Dunn has made baseball enthusiasts accustomed to.

The thing is, no one should really have been surprised.  Prior to his recall from Triple-A he had struck out 158 times in 407 AB (a 33.8% strikeout rate).  In his debut at Triple-A in 2011 he whiffed 64 times in 185 AB (a 29.8% strikeout rate).  Seeing the number increase like it did really should not have caught anyone off guard. Read more

Fantasy Outlook: Should A Consistent Brandon Phillips Be Ignored?

There are very few players that you can pick at the beginning of the year and basically know exactly what they are going to give you. Yes, there is always room for variation but from Day 1 you just know that, no matter what happens in between, on the last day of the season the numbers should be there.

One such player is Brandon Phillips, who simply posted what has become a standard Phillips year in 2012:

580 At Bats
.281 Batting Average (163 Hits)
18 Home Runs
77 RBI
86 Runs
15 Stolen Bases
.321 On Base Percentage
.429 Slugging Percentage
.298 BABIP

It is the third straight year that he has hit 18 HR. Since 2006 he has been between 17 and 21 in all but one year. The odd year out was his “breakout” campaign of 2007, when he hit 30 HR. Read more

Prospect Report: Kyle Gibson

The Arizona Fall League is a chance for top prospects to show off their talents. This year Kyle Gibson is certainly taking advantage of his opportunity. Through his first three starts (13.0 innings) he is 3-0 with a 0.69 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 19 K.

The showing is even more important for Gibson, who is working his way back from Tommy John surgery. He returned in the middle of the year in 2012, making 13 appearances (11 starts) across three levels. While his 4.13 ERA was not very appealing, he posted 33 K vs. 6 BB.

It’s the latter, especially just coming off of surgery, that has to appeal to fantasy owners. He has continued it in the AFL, with just 2 BB. If he can continue with that type of control, you would have to think he could make an impact in 2013.

He had reached Triple- in 2011 prior to get injured, so making his Major League debut should be a forgone conclusion. The question is, how many innings will the Twins let him go? He pitched just 95.1 in ’11, though was at 152.0 in ’10. That question is going to go a long way in determining his potential value. Read more

Top 5 Prospects For 2012 Review: Cincinnati Reds

If you purchased the 2012 Rotoprofessor Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, you got my Top 5 prospects for 2012 for each team.  Unlike most other prospect lists, this was geared towards the plays who were most likely to make an impact just for this season.

With the minor league year behind us and the MLB season quickly coming to a close, let’s continue to take a look back at each team and see how every prospect fared:

1) Zack Cozart – Shortstop
Major Leagues – .246, 15 HR, 35 RBI, 72 R, 4 SB, 561 AB
We have already discussed Cozart in detail, so click here to check it out.  While, to an extent, his rookie season was a success there was also a lot of issues in his performance.  He was miscast as a leadoff hitter, more out of desperation than anything.  He does bring some power to the table, but he doesn’t draw walks (5.2%) and doesn’t have the average upside (.270 hitter in the minor leagues).

2) Devin Mesoraco – Catcher
Minor Leagues – .167, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 R, 0 SB, 18 AB (Triple-A)
Major Leagues – .212, 5 HR, 14 RBI, 17 R, 1 SB, 165 AB
He was supposed to be the next hot young catcher, but he failed miserably to live up to expectations. There was some bad luck involved (.234 BABIP), but that wasn’t the only failure. For a player who had 53 extra base hits at Teiple-A in 2011 (36 doubles, 2 triples, 15 home runs), he had 13 last season. Read more