Rotoprofessor

There were plenty of disappointments in 2008, but one of the biggest ones was the Tigers Justin Verlander, who struggled to a pathetic 11-17 season with 4.84 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.  Coming off back-to-back season of ERA’s of 3.63 and 3.66, those who drafted him in the early rounds (he was drafted #48 in one of my leagues, though I would agree that this was a big-time reach) were left scrambling trying to replace him.  The question now is whether he can regain the form he once had or if we have already seen the best he has to offer.

After tying for the league lead in loses (with Barry Zito and Aaron Harang), you know that things certainly can’t get any worse then they were in ‘08.  He was bad prior to the All-Star Break, but it was his close to the season when owners just kept holding out hope that he would turn things around, that was probably more costly.

Before I get into the numbers, I just want to revisit where I was in late-April, early-May in my keeper league.  I was desperate for pitching, having been dependent on guys like Yovanni Gallardo and Rich Hill (who had not yet been sent down) early on.  I talked to Verlander’s owner and we had come to a preliminary agreement for a swap centered around Verlander and Hill.

We were finalizing things when the news of Hill’s demotion broke and the deal quickly fell apart.  Yes, I got nothing from Hill the rest of the way, obviously, but at least I was able to replace him without a second thought.  Had I ended up with Verlander, I would have felt obligated to continue to use him in my line-up and would have paid the consequences.  I won the league and looking back on how things played out, I’m not sure I would have claimed victory if the trade had gone through.  Like the old saying goes, sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make.

Anyways, now that I’m back from my tangent, let’s get back to Verlander and his potential for a come back campaign.  After a disastrous April, where he posted a 6.60 ERA, Verlander came back strong posting ERA’s of 3.92 and 2.73 in May and June.  Things actually continued into July, before they completely collapsed on July 26.

In fact, from May 14 to July 20, Verlander’s ERA was an impressive 2.58 and he had his season’s ERA down to 3.95.  Of course, in the second half his ERA was 6.04 over his 13 starts (73.0 innings), going 4-8.

There was talk in early August of him having a dead arm, which certainly could have contributed to his terrible finish to the season.  That doesn’t explain why he started the season poorly, but his stretch in the middle of the season is what I’m pointing to as hope.

Pitching in the AL, I wouldn’t expect him to be able to repeat the ERA in the mid-3’s, but a respectable ERA should be there.  He’s proven he could do it for a full season, as well as for a pretty long stretch in ‘08.  Look for a return to prominence for him here.

The strikeouts are one of the things that fans misjudge when it comes to Verlander.  He throws the ball hard, so people just assume that he’s going to be among the league leaders.  In 2007 he was good in that regard, striking out 8.17 batters per 9 innings, but in 2006 he was at just 6.00.  Last season he came in right in the middle at 7.30, and that seems like a good, realistic assumption for him moving forward.

That obviously is a good number, since it led to 163 K’s.  He’s a player that isn’t going to hurt you, but he just isn’t a player that you are going to be able to build your fantasy staff around.  You need to have at least one other top-notch option to help you out.

His career high in 183 in 2007, so don’t expect him to exceed that.  He’s just not a pitcher I see suddenly striking out 200 batters a season.

Verlander hasn’t shown a consistent WHIP at all.  Over the past three seasons he’s posted the following:

• 2006 - 1.33
• 2007 - 1.23
• 2008 - 1.40

The walks were up by around 1 full walk per 9 innings higher (it was 3.90 last season compared to 2.90 and 2.99 in ‘06 & ‘07, respectively), which obviously contributed to the increased WHIP.  Not that he was good in the first half (3.59), but he was even worse in the second half (4.44).

Maybe the dead arm contributed to some loss of control, but I would expect him to be able to get back to where he was in prior seasons.  Is it going to be below 3 per 9 innings again?  Probably not, but it will certainly be much better then last season.

His BABIP was also a little bit higher then it has been (.305 vs. .295), which helped lead to an increased WHIP.  Opponents hit .256 against him, worse then they did in ‘07 (.241), but better then ‘06 (.263).  I don’t think he’s going to be as unhittable as he was in 2007, and the ‘08 number could be a very realistic one.

Like with the BB%, I don’t think I can project his WHIP out to where he was in 2007.  He’s a very good pitcher, but I don’t think he’s got that type of stuff.  Still, a significant rebound is in order.  He showed it during his good stretch in the middle of the season that the talent is there, he just needs to do it consistently through the season.

We’ve been through my thoughts, now let’s look to see what I expect from him this season:

197.0 IP, 15 W, 3.88 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 172 K (7.86 K/9), 72 BB (3.29 BB/9)

Basically, what it all adds up to is a return to fantasy relevance.  I’ve been saying it throughout this column, but Verlander showed in 2008 that he has the talent, he just needs to rediscover the consistency.  Maybe it was the number of innings over the prior 2 seasons that wore him out, but he just wasn’t the same pitcher in the second half.  I expect him to come into the season better conditioned and ready to go in ‘09.

I don’t think he is going to be that ace pitcher that people want him to be, but a number 2 pitcher he should be.  An early round pick?  Absolutely not, but look to him in the middle rounds as a bounce-back sleeper he should be.  A great value pick when he should be had.