(All stats are through Monday, May 28)
Wasn’t Dexter Fowler supposed to be a source of stolen bases in 2011? Many people tried to take his 13 SB 2010 campaign (505 AB) and sweep it under the rug as an aberration.
He is the same player who stole 27 bases in 2009…
He is the same player who stole as many as 43 bases in the minor leagues…
Of course, the people who are looking at the second statement are ignoring the fact that he was also caught stealing 23 times that season. Not to mention, in 421 AB at Double-A in 2008 (the last time he spent extensive time in the minor leagues), he went 20-for-28 in stolen base attempts.
When you look at things in that perspective, the fact that he’s stolen just two bases in his first 189 AB should not be the most shocking thing in the world. The fact that he has been successful just 25% of the time (2-for-8), is a little bit surprising, but the fact that he hasn’t suddenly become one of the elite stolen base threats in the league should’ve been predicted.
We knew he wasn’t going to offer any real power, with just 25 HR in 1,407 minor league at bats. That was never going to be any source of value for him.
He has the potential to be a decent average hitter, though he has to make contact to do so. He has never been the best strikeout option, but this season it has gotten out of control:
- 2009 – 26.8%
- 2010 – 23.7%
- 2011 – 31.2%
Of course, he is also currently enjoying a .351 BABIP. Is it a lock that he keeps that up? Not at all, though there are some factors that should help him maintain the mark. He does have speed, and he also hits line drives exceptionally well. After posting marks of 21.0% and 21.6%, this season he is currently at 23.0%, putting him in the Top 20 in the league.
Therefore, it’s safe to think that his average is going to rebound, but that’s not a bold statement considering he’s hitting .243. Then again, he’s just a .257 hitter, so how far is he going to go?
The bottom line with Fowler is that, outside of deep five-outfielder formats, he really doesn’t offer much value for fantasy owners. Sure, he could get hot, making him worth using as a flier, but otherwise he just isn’t bringing anything to the table. If he can harness his speed it would be a different story, but until then he’s not really worth it.