Rotoprofessor

There’s a lot of speculation as to where Evan Longoria should go in fantasy drafts this season.  There are a few feel that he is already on an equal playing field to David Wright, though obviously no one is going to take Longoria before him.  Wright is a sure fire first round draft choice, right behind Alex Rodriguez.  As for Longoria, well that’s an entirely different story.

I’ve seen him picked in the second and third rounds in some early mock drafts of late.  Well, which should it be?  Is the second round too early?  Third round too late?  Is it still too early?

Well, the third question is a resounding no.  As for the other two, let’s take a look at the numbers before we delve into it:

.272 Average (122 Hits)
27 Home Runs
85 RBI
67 Runs
7 Stolen Bases
.343 On Base Percentage
.531 Slugging Percentage

No, he was not quite the next Ryan Braun, but then again, expecting that from anyone is just not fair.  Braun set unbelievable standards for rookies in 2007, one that is going to be extremely difficult to reach, so let us just forget those type of comparisons.

In a season where Longoria started in the minor leagues (he made his major league debut on April 12) and missed some time due to a broken wrist (he was out from August 8-September 13), he quickly emerged as a Top 5 player at his position, quite possibly the third best.  That certainly says a lot for a player who is just 2 years removed from being drafted (he was the third overall selection in 2006) and played just 1 full season in the minors.

Those minor league numbers were very impressive, hitting .301 with 44 HR and 154 RBI over 758 AB.  As we have already shown, he didn’t slow down when taking on the best pitchers in the game, so there’s no real reason to expect a sophomore slump.

I know people want to look at the 7 SB’s and say that he has the chance to provide the same type of speed that Wright and Rodriguez provides owners, but keep in mind that he had only 8 in his minor league career.  That tells me that while he has a little bit of upside there, to think that he could reach the 15-20 mark or beyond would be a bit of a stretch.

That certainly hurts his value, at least a little bit, as do the runs scored.  Only 67 in a fairly high-powered Rays’ line-up?  He batted primarily in the fifth slot, which certainly had an impact.  Still, with a full season of action I would expect him to increase that total significantly, though I don’t see him reaching the 100 plateau.  I’d project him out to the 90-95 range, obviously a number that is still well above average.  In fact, there were only five eligible third baseman with more then 95 last season, and I don’t think any of us would expect Mark DeRosa or Aubrey Huff to repeat the seasons they had.

He already has proven to be one of the elite power and RBI threats from the position, and that’s not going to change.  With the power he showed in an abbreviated season, it is not unreasonable to expect him to easily top 30 HR in ‘09, with 35-40 being realistic.

He also has plenty of great offensive players hitting in front of him, with names like B.J. Upton and Carl Crawford set to fill the bases in front of him.  The 100 RBI mark should be a no-brainer, putting him among the top third baseman available.

With a good average as well, it looks like I’m expecting him to be around .285, 33 HR, 107 RBI, 95 R and 10 SB.  That’s a tremendous line, considering he is among the best in 4 categories and certainly doesn’t hurt your chances of winning stolen bases.

Still, to me, I wouldn’t take him early on in the second round.  He’s no guarantee, despite my lofty expectations, so to take that kind of risk among the first 18-20 picks would be a mistake.  Towards the bottom of the second round or early third round, he’s definitely worth the gamble because he has the chance to perform like a first round selection.  Take the risk at that point, without a second thought.

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.