Rotoprofessor

David Ortiz is an interesting case study, because he and Manny Ramirez had formed one of the most dominant combinations in all of baseball prior to 2008.  Injuries to his left wrist and the departure of Ramirez certainly played a role in what can only be described as a disappointing season.  Let’s take a look at the numbers, representing lows across the board since joining the Red Sox in 2003:

416 At Bats
23 Home Runs
89 RBI
74 Runs
1 Stolen Base
.264 Average
.369 On Base Percentage
.507 Slugging Percentage
.273 Batting Average Balls In Play

It’s almost shocking, to be honest, but there is no doubt in my mind that a rebound season is in order.  A really slow start played a huge factor in his struggles, hitting .198 with 5 HR and 21 RBI in April.  The power production is fine, but that average is pretty pathetic.

The number of at bats is what should be pointed to for his decreased power, as he still managed to hit a home run about once every 18 AB’s.  In 2007, he hit a home run about once every 15.5 AB’s.  He also managed 30 doubles in limited at bats, so he was still hitting the ball hard.  His HR/FB rate was just 14.8 %, compared to a number roughly around 20% during his prime seasons.

So yes, it was a decrease, but if he were to have been healthy enough for 550 AB’s last season he still would have eclipsed the 30 HR mark.

Yes, you can point to the departure of Ramirez if you want a reason to support his numbers remaining down in 2009.  You can say that Jason Bay won’t offer the same type of protection, so Ortiz won’t get as many pitches to hit.  It makes sense, but it’s an argument that I’m just not buying.  After being acquired at the trade deadline, Bay hit .293 with 9 HR and 37 RBI.  Is that Ramirez type production?  Of course not, but it is good enough to make pitchers fear, at least a little bit, and give Ortiz a chance to hit.

Additionally, we’ve seen quite a few hitters with little line-up protection post tremendous offensive seasons.  You don’t have to look much further then Albert Pujols, who had Troy Glaus batting behind him, for an example.  I am a believer in line-up protection, but in this case I think it is a bit overblown.

Now, do I think Ortiz is going to rebound and return to the days of 40-50 HR?  At age 33, I just don’t see it.  Still, if he had stayed healthy, he still would have been a highly productive player in ‘08.  That tells me that he may not be a second round pick, but he’s a player that I’d want to have on my team.

Let’s take a look at exactly what I’m expecting from him next season:

.287 (157-547), 34 HR, 102 RBI, 89 R, 1 SB, .292 BABIP, .381 OBP, .543 SLG

It’s not the Big Papi of old, but it is still a player that fantasy owners should be looking to own, especially since he’s likely to slip down draft boards.  In the past, you’d never see him sitting there in the fourth round, but coming off last season that opportunity may present itself.  I even recently saw him go in Round 5 of an expert draft.  I wouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger at the end of the fourth if he’s still available, especially after guys like Adrian Gonzalez have come off the board.  He’s going to rebound and should be a productive fantasy force once again in 2009.

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.