The San Francisco Giants Randy Winn is a very interesting player to look at. In the past he’s shown the potential for power (20 HR in ’05) and the potential for speed (five seasons of over 20 SB). Last year, it was significantly more speed then power, as you can see from the numbers he posted:
598 At Bats
10 Home Runs
25 Stolen Bases
14.7% K% (88 Strikeouts)
9.0% BB% (59 Walks)
.346 Batting Average on Balls in Play
.363 On Base Percentage
.426 Slugging Percentage
That was the first season that he eclipsed the 20 SB mark since 2004 (the last of a 3-year stretch that he was over 20), so I’m not counting on him being able to reach that mark again this season, especially at age 35 (he turn 35 in June). That’s not to say that he won’t be able to contribute in steals, as he has been in double-digits every year since 2001. I just wouldn’t count on him being a major impact on your place in the category.
I also don’t expect him to be a huge home run threat either, with just one 20 HR season. Besides that lone season, his high is just 14, which he did one three separate occasions. Yes, he’s been in double-digits every year since 2002, but with 10 or 11, he really isn’t going to make a huge difference for you. He’s proven to have doubles power (at least 34 every year since ’02), but not much more.
As you can see, by itself, the power and the speed is not a huge deal, but combined you get a player who is likely going to be 10/10. Maybe… Possibly…
He’s not going to hurt you with his eye at the plate, but he’s not exceptional either. He’s got a career strikeout rate of 16.2% and career walk rate of 7.8%, both numbers he was better then last season. There could be a regression, but even if he goes back towards his career numbers it’s not going to affect things too much.
The average was significantly higher than his career mark (.288), thanks to a ridiculous BABIP. There’s no way that gets repeated, so a .300 average is not going to happen again.
Let’s take a look at what I’d expect from him this season:
.282 (166-588), 9 HR, 58 RBI, 79 R, 16 SB, .320 BABIP, .340 OBP, .396 SLG
As you can see, I don’t even see him being a 10/10 player next season, and without a great average or a ton of runs scored, he is just not a player worth looking at, even in leagues that require 5 OF’ers. Is he a player who could be used as a short-term fill-in? Yeah, but that’s about all. He’s waiver wire fodder and nothing more.