Rotoprofessor

There was a time when Ichiro was easily considered one of the best outfielders in the game.  In his 8-year major league career he’s:

• Scored over 100 Runs in all 8 seasons
• Had over 200 Hits in all 8 seasons
• Hit over .300 in all 8 seasons
• Stolen over 30 bases in all 8 seasons

There was a time that he had shown some power potential, hitting 15 HR in 2005, but after back-to-back seasons of just 6, it is obvious that we shouldn’t be expecting a miraculous return to double-digit dingers.  Does that significantly impact his value?

Obviously, it has to.  We can all draft some end-game speed in the last rounds of our draft, names like Carlos Gomez, Michael Bourn and Juan Pierre come to mind.  Those players also have the potential to steal significantly more bases then Ichiro, who only has a pair of season over 40.

So, what justifies taking Ichiro in the second or third round on draft day?

The average is the first place to turn, and it’s a pretty obvious positive.  Granted, the chances of him seeing a season like he did in 2004, hitting .372, is very slim, but we are only a year removed from a .351 campaign so I guess it’s not so unrealistic.  He’s a career .331 hitter, something that you rarely get from those end-game speed options.

Even as he ages, we all know that his track record is too good to ignore.  He just continues to hit, and 2009 should be no different.  Another .300+ season will be in store, that’s a guarantee.

Runs could be another asset, though he’s only had one season scoring over 111 runs, and that was his rookie season.  He scored just 103 last season, so we have to wonder how much of an asset he really is there?  There were 7 OF’ers who scored more runs then him last season, but only 17 overall.

If he were on a better team, there’s every chance that he would have scored significantly more runs.  Being among the league leaders certainly would be possible, though I’m not sure the Mariners offense is suddenly going to be better then it was, which was good enough for twenty-sixth in the league in runs scored.

From where I sit, drastic improvement just doesn’t seem likely, which means a big increase in runs scored could be a problem, especially with Raul Ibanez possibly jumping ship.  If he leaves and isn’t replaced with a known commodity, the questions about Ichiro being able to cross the plate becomes even greater.  With just Adrian Beltre and a bunch of question marks backing him up in the line-up, it could result in his first season failing to reach the 100 run plateau.

Give the type of player he is, his RBI are never going to be a huge asset.  He’s always been between 42 and 69, and he’s not suddenly going to start driving in runs at a huge clip.  Don’t look for him to help you there.

So, what do we have here?  A .300 hitter with little power and plenty of speed, but we don’t know how many runs he’ll actually be able to score.  That makes a player that I wouldn’t be targeting on draft day myself, not in the second or early third round, for sure.

This wasn’t supposed to be a column saying to avoid Ichiro in all formats.  He’s a tremendous player and one that is certainly an asset to owners, but he’s a player that I’d more look at the end of the third round or later.  He’s on a similar level to a Brian Roberts these days, though with a bit of a higher average (and potential for a huge advantage).

Let’s just compare their numbers from 2008 real quick:

• Roberts: .296, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 107 R, 40 SB
• Ichiro: .311, 6 HR, 42 RBI, 103 R, 43 SB

Pretty similar, no?  The major difference is that Roberts is a 2B while Ichiro is an OF.  While OF is a scarcer position these days, especially in formats that require five starters, 2B is still a much tougher position to fill.  Personally, if I had my choice in the third round, I’d take Roberts over Ichiro.  Again, that’s not a knock against Ichiro, but it’s a move that makes sense to me.

What about everyone else.  Who would you rather take?  And for that matter, do you even want Ichiro at this point?

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.