First Round Analysis: Albert Pujols, Jose Bautista or Matt Kemp: Who Should Go #1?

Today’s first round analysis is not a question as to if these players belong in the first round or not.  We all know they do.  The question is who should be taken first overall.  If Ryan Braun were not facing a 50 game suspension he would likely be involved in the discussion as well, but with that looming large he is easily bypassed at this point.

To me the first spot comes down to three players in Albert Pujols, Matt Kemp and Jose Bautista.  You can argue that Miguel Cabrera deserves to be mentioned as well, but since he is lower on my draft board than Pujols it eliminates him from the discussion.  If I am going to take a first baseman in the top spot, it is going to be Pujols without question.

So, with it being a three man race, let’s take a look at each player and try to determine who belongs in the top overall spot this season:

Albert Pujols – First Baseman – Los Angeles Angels
The case for him – We all know that he has been the premier hitter in the game since his Major League debut in 2001.  Despite missing time in 2011 Pujols just fractionally missed an eleventh straight season of .300/30/100 as he hit .299 with 37 HR and 99 RBI.  His prior low in the average department was .312.  He only once has fallen short of 100 runs scored (99 in ’07).  Since 2002 he has hit fewer than 37 HR once (32 in ’07) and has hit at least 40 HR six times.  In other words there is no other player in the league that offers his elite bat and consistency.

The case against him – He is a first baseman, which is one of the biggest negative obstacles he has to overcome.  Playing arguably the deepest position in the game, you can easily pass over Pujols and get a 1B who can produce solid numbers at the end of the second round.  Mark Teixeira would be a very realistic target in the second/third round.  How about Eric Hosmer and Freddie Freeman a few rounds later?  You also have the question about his age, though having not slowed down yet it is hard to hold that one against him.

Matt Kemp – Outfielder – Los Angeles Dodgers
The case for him – He showed in 2011 that he has the potential to be among the elite sluggers in the game by coming within a hair of the elusive 40/40 plateau (39 HR/40 SB).  Considering that there have been just four players to accomplish the feat, it puts him in exclusive company.  Throw in a .324 average and Kemp’s talk of becoming the first 50/50 player and there is an awful lot to like.  The fact that he is the only candidate who brings both power and speed is a big boost to his candidacy.

The case against him – It was a huge season, but do we really believe that he is going to be able to replicate it?  First of all he had never shown that type of power before, yet he posted a 21.4% HR/FB rate.  Can he match that type of potential?  He has been improving year after year, but the sixth best HR/FB in the league?  It’s not a stretch to see his power fall slightly.  Throw in the fact that his average came courtesy of a .380 BABIP, and thus an overall regression is possible.  Let’s also not forget that in 2010 he hit just .249 with 28 HR and 19 SB.  Of the three players we are talking about he brings the most question marks.  At the top spot, do we really want a question mark or more of a sure thing?

Jose Bautista – Third Baseman/Outfielder – Toronto Blue Jays
The case for him – He has become the premier slugger.  After many thought he couldn’t replicate his 2010 success, but he followed it up with 43 HR and a .302 average.  His 97 HR over the past two seasons leads the league by far (Albert Pujols is second with 79).  Before we doubt his improved average, remember that his 2010 struggles (.260 average) came courtesy of a .233 BABIP.  Last season’s .309 mark is far more realistic, giving him the potential to hit over .300 and lead the league in home runs.  With third base eligibility, which we all know is one of the shallowest in fantasy sports, it just adds to his appeal.

The case against him – The biggest knock against him is his lack of speed and maybe that he doesn’t have a long-term history of success.  However, with his past two years how can anyone still doubt his abilities?

Conclusion
For me, while Kemp is definitely a Top 3 option in fantasy drafts there is a little too much risk involved in selecting him with the top spot.  It’s hard to simply forget his 2010 campaign and there are a few red flags that indicate a regression is likely.  If his average and power are both going to fall, would he still be a candidate for the top spot?  He’ll still post elite numbers, but I would prefer to own either of the other two at this point.

Deciding between Pujols and Bautista is a little bit tougher.  The fact that a Mark Teixeira like player could be available with my second selection does make you think.  If you miss out on Bautista can you expect to get an elite 3B next time around?  Evan Longoria, David Wright & Adrian Beltre could be off the board, leaving Ryan Zimmerman as the potentially next best option.  While he has the potential, is there a guarantee that he can stay healthy for an entire season?

The idea of having Bautista/Teixeira is alluring, but the consistency and upside of Pujols is way too much to pass up in my mind.  His floor is probably his 2011 production and is anyone going to complain with a top pick that hits .300 with 37 HR, 100 R and 100 RBI?  Considering he could easily go .320 with 40+ HR, 110+ R and 120+ RBI and wouldn’t think so.  The upside is just way too high and he gives you too big of an advantage over the rest of the field.

While it is tough to bypass Bautista due to the position eligibility, getting a Pablo Sandoval or Brett Lawrie a few rounds later definitely won’t hurt you.

For me it is Pujols, Bautista and Kemp in that order.  What about you?  If you had the top selection who would you take?  Why?

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Make sure to check out our other 2012 first round analysis:

 

 

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17 Responses to First Round Analysis: Albert Pujols, Jose Bautista or Matt Kemp: Who Should Go #1?

  1. Al says:

    I would go with the exact same order for the same reasons you listed. That huge contract the Dodgers gave Kemp baffles me. Bautista is tempting but I do think you can find a decent 3B later. I feel Albert will be motivated to show people what he can do in the AL and that the Cardinals made a mistake letting him go. Just my opinion

  2. ray says:

    Al,

    Kemp’s contract baffles you? Why? he was very close to a triple crown season as a 27 yr old. Did you say the same about Tulo and Pujols getting $250 million at the age of 31, or older?

    • Al says:

      The reason the Kemp contract confuses me is the fact that there was no great urgency to sign him to such a massive deal right now. Also, the length of the extension which is similar to Tulo and Braun and Howard andothers. Not saying Kemp’s a bad player. I’d still draft him third overall! Just not sure I would’ve given him such a long-term contract, the biggest in NL history from what I remember.

  3. Art Vandelay says:

    I agree. I’d go Fat Albert at #1. How can you not? Bautista’s position eligibility is nice, but for some reason I still don’t trust the guy! 2 years of raking and something seems fishy, who knows. Maybe i’m just a hater.

    Ok so you listed #1, #2, and #3, guess what pick I have this year….. #4.

    And there’s just a slew of guys that could rotate in that spot.

    Right now I’m glad you’re saying Bautista is top 3, I hope others think the same. I’d rather have Miggy, Votto, or someone probably than him.

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      That’s definitely fair. With Braun likely out of the mix (barring his suspension being reversed), I would be leaning towards Cabrera at the #4 spot. If Braun is suddenly available, though, that would likely change.

  4. JREwing says:

    One thing to note is that Pujols is changing teams and leagues. I think this adds a touch more downside risk to him. You would expect that Pujols would adjust to AL pitchers, but will it take a couple months (which would lower overall 2012 numbers)? Also even though ballpark factors for Busch and ASoA look like they even out, he’ll be going from a top-5 offense to a bottom-half offense. Obviously adding Albert will help any lineup, but will he get enough protection? Will he have as many men on base? Personally that’s enough risk (adding in the fact that you can’t expect more than single-digit steals from the aging $250 million man) and I’d rather have Bautista, who projects put up pretty similar numbers but occupy 3B/OF instead of 1B.

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      I can agree with the change of leagues, but I don’t think the Angels offense is as bad as you are making them out to be. Granted, they don’t have a Matt Holliday to support Pujols, but I do think Torii Hunter/Mark Trumbo can offer more than enough protection.

      I could also argue that Erick Aybar is severely underrated and will offer a much better top of the lineup presence than Rafael Furcal. Along with Howard Kendrick, Vernon Wells, Chris Iannetta and if Kendry Morales could ever get healthy, the lineup is not as bad as one might think. It gets even better if Mike Trout can make the transition.

    • Art Vandelay says:

      I think the AL pitching will be adjusting to Albert more than Albert will be adjusting to them. Great hitters aren’t phased by a “new league”. It didn’t effect AGON too much when he went from the NL to the AL. It actually helped. Of course a better hitters park and line up around him helped as well, LOL.

      I agree with RP I dont see the Angels line up being terrible either, Albert automatically gives it a hugeeeee boost. There’s young guys there to the point he’ll be alright. I mean was the cards offense that great? Holliday only had 446 AB’s, only 22 HR’s and 75 rbi’s and 2 sbs, i think his days of running are over. Who else was there? An old berkman? Craig? jon jay? freese? They didn’t have anymore there than the Angels. If anything the Angels with trumbo and Morales if he can stay healthy have more offense.

  5. Marky Mark says:

    This article put a nice smile on my face, as I own Pujols and Kemp in my keeper league.

  6. jmax says:

    Great topic RP. It’s hard to go against Fat Albert. Angels now have a log jam at 1st and I think if Morales is healthy in the spring the Angels deal Trumbo for another bat and further up Albert’s appeal.
    For the Bautista doubters, I’m near Toronto and see him alot. The guy is locked in every pitch and he really didn’t have anyone behind him last yr. That looks to change in T.O. this yr. I’d take him 2nd.
    RP, A few questions. I control Matt Kemp in a keeper league. You believe he may regress this season. He has the weakest lineup of the 3 players mentioned around them. How big of a factor if any, is his supporting cast??? I guess what Im trying to gauge is where I draw the line between talent and supporting cast.

    • Art Vandelay says:

      Talent will shine no matter what, but supporting cast is huge. Having a guy behind Kemp that can hit and be semi-feared is key, it gets Kemp fastballs instead of all offspeed. Pitchers can’t just pitch around kemp to get to the next guy that will be easier to face. If kemp has a guy on base that can steal thats also beneficial, more fastballs, pitchers mind is on that guy running, less on location, etc… but for fantasy aspects, kemp is kemp, He’s going to get his, in a better line up slightly more….

      • jmax says:

        Im aware of the real life factors of a potent lineup. Im 30yrs old and still playing baseball (not softball). Im thinking about seeling high on kemp. Reason being there’s a guy in my league who had made me multiple offers for him during last season. Roto, would you consider selling high on Kemp or would you give him a few more yrs??

        • jmax says:

          Now Im hearing rumbles of Either being dealt. What will Kemp have around him?

          • Rotoprofessor says:

            Juan Rivera, James Loney and Dee Gordon…lol

            I do believe there is something to lineup protection, but I also believe it is a little overblown at times. Prior to Matt Holliday how much was there in St. Louis and Albert Pujols always produced. The same thing can be said for Miguel Cabrera prior to the arrival of Victor Martinez (unless you want to include Magglio Ordonez). If Kemp is as good as he appears he is going to produce, regardless.

            As for selling high on Kemp, it really depends on what you can get in return. He is going to be good (borderline first round talent at worst), but if the return is there I wouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger. Who are you able to get?

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