Rookie Redux: Which 2011 Rookie Catchers Are Worth Targeting In 2012?

There were 58 rookie hitters who qualified for the batting title and 85 who qualified for the ERA title.  Over the next few weeks we are going to go position-by-position and see which of these rookies will be in store for big sophomore campaigns and which could go into the dreaded sophomore slump. 

Let’s start things off with the catchers, where there were six catchers who qualified:

Worth Targeting:
J.P Arencibia – Toronto Blue Jays – We all know he has power, but can he make consistent enough contact to be a viable option?  He struck out 27.4% of the time in 2011, helping him to a .219 average.  However, he did make better contact in the minor leagues (20.4%), but even if he does improve that department it may not be enough to make a dramatic difference.  Unfortunately we can’t say that he’s a lock to improve upon his .255 BABIP, as he puts around 50% of his balls in the air (which certainly does not lend itself to an impressive BABIP).

He should once again hit 20+ HR, but if he does it with a sub-.250 average is he going to be a player you want to target?  In deeper formats he will have value, but in one-catcher leagues there are better options.

Wilson Ramos – Washington Nationals – We all know the story of his kidnapping inVenezuela this winter, but don’t let it distract you from what he is capable of.  He hit .267 with 15 HR and 52 RBI over 389 AB in his rookie year and has the potential to be even more than that.

A .285 hitter in the minor leagues, he had never shown much power before 2011 (39 HR in 1,479 AB in the minor leagues).  However, would anyone doubt that a 24-year old continues to add power and develop?  All he needs to do is match the numbers he posted in ’11 to be a borderline option in one catcher formats.  With a .297 BABIP, 13.4% HR/FB rate and 17.5% strand rate, it is possible.

If he wants to take the next step in his development he will have to improve upon his 14.6% line drive rate (which would allow him to maintain a higher BABIP). 

Worth Avoiding:
Hank Conger – Los Angeles Angels –
The Angels have long looked at catcher as a defensive position.  We saw it with Mike Napoli, who eventually got sent packing, and now Conger could be falling into the same conundrum.  With Chris Iannetta in town and the team likely looking for a defensive specialist to back him up, exactly where does that leave Conger?  Considering the log jam the team has at DH, it’s not like Conger can garner much playing time there.

Having hit .298 in the minor leagues, including .300 at Triple-A, is there anything left for him to prove there?  Considering he has hit .204 in 206 AB, including a 19.9% strikeout rate, with the Angels over the past two seasons the team could definitely opt to start him there again.  As it is, if he isn’t going to be playing regularly the 24-year old will be much better served getting regular time in the lineup.

Irrelevant:
Chris Stewart – San Francisco Giants – With Buster Posey returning from injury and Eli Whiteside resigned, it is hard to imagine Stewart getting many opportunities barring an injury.  At best he’s a backup and could just as likely end up back at Triple-A.

Michael McKenry – Pittsburgh Pirates – He will backup the newly signed Rod Barajas, as the team knew they needed to upgrade at the position.  Even if the team ultimately decided he offered more potential, he strikes out too much to go with little power (best HR total was 22 at Single-A in ’07).

Carlos Corporan – Houston Astros – The Astros were hit hard by injuries, but he is going to be behind Jason Castro and Humberto Quintero in ’12.  There’s little chance he makes an impact.

***** Pre-order the Rotoprofessor 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, complete with updates from January through the start of the season, for just $6! As an added bonus, if you purchase by 3/15 you will be entered to win a Michael Pineda autographed baseball! To place your order click here. *****

Make sure to check out our other 2012 projections:

 

 

Posted on by Rotoprofessor. This entry was posted in Player Analysis. Bookmark the permalink.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

8 Responses to Rookie Redux: Which 2011 Rookie Catchers Are Worth Targeting In 2012?

  1. MJ says:

    Any chance Grandal sees some time in 2012?

  2. Rotoprofessor says:

    I think there’s a very good chance, actually

  3. Eddy says:

    Professor,

    Do you really think Ryan Hanigan will be the primary catcher for the Reds? That’s the only reason I can come up with as to why Mesoraco is not in here. He’s someone going in the last 5 or so rounds and has potential for a .280 avg and 15 HR. Even more valuable in OBP leagues.

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      Mesoraco did not have enough AB to qualify for the batting title in ’11 and will be considered a rookie in ’12. That is the only reason he isn’t on here.

      He also didn’t have enough AB last season and will qualify for the Rookie of the Year Award this season.

      I do think the two split time early in the season, like they have done in the past, but eventually Mesoraco will take over full-time.

      • Eddy says:

        Shoot, I quickly read the title and assumed 2012 rookie catchers. Sorry!

        But while on the topic, do you see Mesoraco as a viable option in mixed 12-team leagues?

        • Rotoprofessor says:

          I think he will have more value in the second half then he will in the first (and in 2013 than in 2012). The Reds have long proven to prefer a platoon, so I would expect Mesoraco to be eased into the mix. As of right now I’m only projecting him out to around 375-400 AB, which obviously will limit his potential.

          If he does earn full-time PT sooner, then yes, he will have value in shallower formats. I’m just not sure he’s going to get there.

  4. Glenn says:

    Do you consider Alex Avila past rookie status and how would you compare him with Arencibia? Arenecibia cranked when he first came up and then came back to earth, Avila was pretty damn steady last year.

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      Avila is a much better option, though I don’t think he’s going to be quite as good (or get as many AB) in ’12. Still, he’s a Top 10 option while Arencibia is more of an option in 2-catcher formats.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


























































Pages