Greg Johns of mlb.com (via Twitter) has reported that the New York Yankees have traded C Jesus Montero & P Hector Noesi to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for P Michael Pineda & P Jose Campos.
This trade obviously fills glaring holes for both teams as the Yankees desperately needed to improve their rotation while the Mariners needed a boost to their lineup. Of course, both players also move to stadiums that are not conducive to their particular skill sets. How will the move affect their fantasy appeal (as well as the players around them)? Let’s take a look:
New York Yankees Impact:
Pineda slides behind CC Sabathia as the Yankees #2 starting pitcher. While he went 9-10 over 171.0 innings in his rookie season, he posted a 3.74 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 173 K. The luck metrics were basically split, as he had a .258 BABIP and 69.7% strand rate.
The numbers would’ve looked even better as he clearly tired down the stretch. After posting a 3.03 ERA in the first half of the year he ballooned to 5.12 in his final 10 starts. That said, there also has to be a little bit of concern with him moving away from Safeco Field:
- Home – 2.92 ERA in 77.0 IP
- Road – 4.40 ERA in 94.0 IP
Of course, he actually had a worse HR/9 at home (1.05) than on the road (0.86) and suffered from a 64.4% strand rate away from home. While he may allow a few more home runs pitching in Yankee Stadium his strikeout ability (9.11 K/9) and good control (2.89 BB/9) should help to offset those issues.
Even if he was to simply match last year’s ERA to go along with a slightly higher WHIP (due to an increased BABIP), pitching for the Yankees will likely yield significantly more victories. He was a solid SP3 prior to the trade, but now he looks like a great pick in that spot.
The acquisition does not have a major impact on the rest of the Yankees lineup as you figured the Yankees would use the DH to give guys like Alex Rodriguez a rest. Still, seeing them add a veteran would make sense.
However, you couple the addition of Pineda to this evening’s signing of Hiroki Kuroda and the Yankees have seven starting pitchers. Two of Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett and Freddy Garcia will have to move to the bullpen or get traded. You have to think that the Yankees are going to try and pawn Burnett off on someone, and there will likely be a taker. With a change of scenery you really never know.
Additionally, my guess is it would be Garcia who worked as a long man/spot starter until someone else fell flat. Of course, after what we saw from Hughes in 2011 anything is possible. Keeping extra arms around definitely makes sense.
Seattle Mariners Impact:
The first thing to note is the glaring hole that is now at the top of the Mariners rotation. Could this mean the team is comfortable breaking camp with Danny Hultzen in the rotation? Time will tell, but that idea is looking more and more realistic right now, barring other moves.
As for Montero he should immediately step in as the team’s DH, though you have to wonder if he will get an opportunity to earn AB behind the plate. The Mariners already have Miguel Olivo, John Jaso and Adam Moore as catching options, so they may be viewing him solely as a DH at this point. That is going to hurt his future fantasy value, obviously, though in Seattle he has a better chance of catching long-term.
Montero spent 2011 primarily at Triple-A, hitting .288 with 18 HR and 67 RBI in 420 AB. There is no question that he can handle the bat, though a 21.2% strikeout last season is a little bit concerning. It hasn’t been a major problem throughout his minor league career, though it did inflate to 24.6% in 61 AB for the Yankees. It is something to keep in mind, because if he can’t reduce the number he may have a problem hitting for a good average.
You also have to wonder how his power will handle the move to cavernous Safeco Field. He did show power at Triple-A in 2010 (21 HR and 58 total XBH in 453 AB) and has a ton of upside, but will his surrounding limit him? We’ll have to wait and see, but it is something to keep in mind. He should still reach the 18-20 HR plateau, though time will tell.
What Montero does gain is sliding immediately into the middle of the Mariners lineup, which will give him significant opportunities to produce. While it’s not a loaded lineup, he’ll be hitting behind Ichiro Suzuki and Dustin Ackley. That should provide him chances to drive in runs.
We all know the potential he has and I certainly wouldn’t downgrade him due to the trade thanks to where he should hit in the lineup and the chance to play every day.
What are your thoughts on the move? Who wins? Who loses?
Good analysis. I’d be hesitant to say that Montero’s RBI chances will improve, since every spot in the Yankee lineup can produce RBIs. But I do think that he’ll have a chance to get a lot more ABs in Seattle, since the Yankees will be rotating A-Rod, Jeter, and others into the DH spot (not to mention the higher lineup slot). And of course the Mariners would likely give him a longer leash than the Yankees if he struggles early.
From a fantasy standpoint I have 2 catchers in my reserve we have a starting 2 catcher format. McCann was my one sure thing, have both Montero and Mesoraco who is the better play going forward?
How long is the keeper format. I definitely think Montero will be the better option for 2012 (I think Mesoraco will not be the full-time starter until mid year, instead sharing time with Ryan Hanigan).
The issue with Montero is if he will maintain catching eligibility past 2012. So, if you are looking for him as a catcher in 2013, you may be disappointed.
it is a 5 year format we are in year two he is listed as a C we have no DH so unless he moves to another position he will always be a C.
Thanks for responding and congrats on the baby should be ordering today.
Here’s a fantasy baseball psychology question for you Rotoprofessor. I mean, who better to ask a psychology questtion to than a professor right…..?
Pineda and Montero as of right now are 2 players I’d probably ignore going into a draft. Why? soley bc they are sophmores. And Montero is a sophmore who didn’t have a great deal of service time in his rookie yr. The only way I’d pick either of them is if I was able to draft them very late.
I guess I’d rather draft a player who has proven to be consistant and as that can have it’s advantages, I may however miss out on drafting a guy like Pineda or Montero who have very high ceilings.
When you ranked Pineda 29th, you ranked him higher than Matt Garza and Chris Carpenter. I’d undoubtably draft those 2 guys higher than Pineda just bc they’re sure bets. It tells me you’re relying on numbers and not really even considering a possible sophmore slump. Do you personally rely on the numbers bc hey, if they flop you can say atleast you followed the numbers and that is the way to go. Or is it just in the case of Pineda and Montero that they’re can’t miss prospects??
Am I too gaurded??? Im still somewhat of a new player to fantasy games. How comfortable are you with your numbers…..? Hope you can make enough sense of my rant to offer up an answer to many questions
Do I go solely on the numbers? No, I don’t, as upside will also play a major role as well. Also, remember Pineda was still in a much better pitcher’s park when I did the rankings. While the wins may not have been as high, there was more of a chance for a solid ERA/WHIP.
I also don’t believe that you want to play it too safe on draft day. You need to take a few risks, calculated ones at the right spot, in order to really succeed.
That said, take any rankings as a guideline. That’s why I included their estimated draft round in the Top 300 as well this season (similar to an ADP). Just because he’s ranked #29 doesn’t mean you have to draft him there in order to get him. That is the real key to any draft. Getting the best talent at a discount.
Does that help at all?
Ya it helps. Thanks. In realtion to your Rounders article, it really is uncanny how much poker is like fantasy baseball…. You’re like the Doyle Brunson, the more I can learn about your mindset the more dimension I can add to my game. Besides playing baseball, fantasy baseball and poker are the two other things I love to do. I never considered the relationship. Well done…
I have Pineda for 9 for two more years. I’m still happy with that and that he will get more wins. I’m concerned about the ERA, the AL East, and the pressure of NYC. He seems like he really could be a bust now. Thoughts on that?
Pineda is a fly ball pitcher. In Yankee stadium, that could be trouble. The M’s have Paxson and Hultzen (with Walker down in A+) and could take the loss of Pineda. I think you’ll see a rotation of this out of spring training
Felix
Vargas
Furbush
Beavan
Paxson
Come August, Hultzen will be up and Paxson will settle in at #4.
Felix
Vargas
Hultzen
Paxson
Beavan
with Furbush going back to a LOOGY role.
Montero helps their offense out a great deal. I could see them dealing Olivo to a contender who needs some offense from the Catcher position (Dodgers if they’re contending) for some MLB ready position players (Jerry Sands?).