In this new series of articles we are going to give a quick look at players who may want to target late in your draft (an ADP of 216.00 or higher, meaning they will be available after Round 18). Let’s kick things off with Jose Tabata.
Current ADP (according to Mock Draft Central) – 223.65
2011 Statistics – .266, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 53 R, 16 SB in 334 AB
If you are looking for HR or RBI, Jose Tabata is not the player for you. Over 1,907 minor league AB he hit a grand total of 29 HR (and has added just 8 HR in 739 AB in the Major Leagues).
What Tabata does bring to the table is speed, the potential to score runs and a solid average. The numbers from 2011 do not fully tell the story, as he was limited by injuries (including a quad injury) throughout the year. However, he’s shown off his stolen base ability before (25 SB in 31 attempts over 224 AB at Triple-A in ’10) and should be given the opportunity to run in 2012.
He’s never been a 50+ SB guy (like a Dee Gordon), but in the last few rounds the potential to get 25-30 SB from Tabata is more than enough as a late round flier, especially since he has the potential to hit .290 plus. His numbers also came courtesy of a .313 BABIP, a realistic number overall but there is room for improvement. With his speed he certainly has the potential to post a better number than that (he was at .339 in ’10). Coupled with the ability to make consistent contact (14.2% strikeout rate in the minor leagues, 14.3% in the Major Leagues) and there is no reason to think he is going to hit for as low of an average once again.
Think .270 at worst, with .290+ not unrealistic.
You couple that ability with a good walk rate (10.5% in ’11) and a developing slugger behind him (Andrew McCutchen) and does anyone think that 85+ runs is unrealistic?
At the end of the day we are looking at a hitter who could easily hit .270 with 85 R and 25 SB, and could significantly outperform those baseline projections. As an end round play in any format is anyone going to complain?
What are your thoughts of Tabata? Is he worth a late round selection? Why or why not?
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Make sure to check out all of our 2012 rankings: