Quick Hit: Matt Holliday
We’ve talked about Matt Holliday a little bit in the past, especially after his trade to Oakland, but let’s take a quick look at what we could expect from a player who was considered one of vaunted hitters in the game now that he’s playing outside of Coors Field. First, here are the numbers he posted in what can only be described as a surprising season:
539 At Bats
.321 Batting Average (173 Hits)
25 Home Runs
88 RBI
107 Runs
28 Stolen Bases
.409 On Base Percentage
.538 Slugging Percentage
.361 Batting Average on Balls in Play
A strained left hamstring limited his playing time, which was part of the reason for his reduced power. He also had a slight decrease in his FB% (36.0% to 32.7%) and HR/FB (19.5% to 17.5%), which also helped contribute to him going from 36 to 25 HR. The thing is, with him now playing in a park that severely favors pitchers, you may no longer be able to expect him to hit in the mid-30’s for HR this season. Instead, it would not be surprising to see him in the 25-28 range, still a good number but certainly not as impressive.
He also should see a decrease in both R and RBI, as the line-up he’s playing in will be significantly weaker then the one he was part of in Colorado. He’s going to be surrounded by guys like Mark Ellis, Bobby Crosby, Eric Chavez and Jack Cust. Those certainly aren’t names that instill fear in opposing pitchers, besides maybe Cust, at least slightly. I think he could return to the land of 100 RBI, though not close to the 137 he posted in ‘07. As far as runs go, I would find it hard to believe to see him score 100 again. Low to mid 90’s seems a lot more reasonable given the other hitters in the line-up.
There’s no reason to be concerned about his average. He can hit, and we all know it. I know the argument is there that he is a better hitter at home then on the road, though he’s still hit over .300 on the road the past 2 seasons. A hitter is a hitter, no matter what ballpark he’s put in, and I fully expect Holliday to surpass .300 once again.
The main anomaly in his season were the SB, where he raised his numbers to nearly 30 after topping out at 14 early on in his career. I can’t see him repeating that type of speed this season, instead regressing back to his norm prior to ‘08 in the 12-15 range.
With all that said, let’s take a look at what I’d expect from him in Oakland this season:
.317 (197-621), 27 HR, 104 RBI, 94 R, 14 SB, .359 BABIP, .397 OBP, .541 SLG
Those numbers still make him a great option for your outfield on draft day, but he obviously is no longer the first round selection he once was. Drop him down a few spots on your draft, but definitely do not avoid him all together. He should certainly still perform like a #1 outfielder in all formats.
Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.
Big O, I agree that it’s close to Beltran, though I have to run Beltran’s numbers and see where he ends up. It’s an interesting comparison, though. Let me run Beltran and we’ll do a Quick Hit on him in the next few days.
I just looked at Holliday’s ADP again, and I think it is buoyed by drafts prior to the move a little bit. I would not take him in the 1st for sure, and would probably but him in the 14-18 range, depending on your draft. So, early 2nd should be about right.
Just curious about this: Is there a specific spot you would take Holliday at right now?
The stats you mention look like a late 1st rounder… Maybe 8-10 overall?
He’s a borderline 1st rounder, though I would probably wait until the 2nd myself. Mock Draft Central has his ADP at 11.85, which is actually good for 13th. I think 8-10 may be a little early, but obviously not much. It really comes down to how you rate him vs. someone like Ryan Braun if you are picking in that range, and personally I would go with Braun before him.
the stats he’s projecting here place Holliday in the Carlos Beltran range.