We all know that American League pitchers offer a little bit more risk than their National League counterparts. There is more than enough talent that resides in the AL, however, and they deserve credit for their abilities. Let’s take a look at how things currently look:
- Justin Verlander – Detroit Tigers
- CC Sabathia – New York Yankees
- Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners
- David Price – Tampa Bay Rays
- Jon Lester – Boston Red Sox
- Jered Weaver – Los Angeles Angels
- Dan Haren – Los Angeles Angels
- Yu Darvish – Texas Rangers
- C.J. Wilson – Los Angeles Angels
- James Shields – Tampa Bay Rays
- Josh Beckett – Boston Red Sox
- Matt Moore – Tampa Bay Rays
- Max Scherzer – Detroit Tigers
- Colby Lewis – Texas Rangers
- Ubaldo Jimenez – Cleveland Indians
- Brandon Morrow – Toronto Blue Jays
- Justin Masterson – Cleveland Indians
- Hiroki Kuroda – New York Yankees
- Jeremy Hellickson – Tampa Bay Rays
- Ervin Santana – Los Angeles Angels
- Ricky Romero – Toronto Blue Jays
- Derek Holland – Texas Rangers
- Doug Fister – Detroit Tigers
- Francisco Liriano – Minnesota Twins
- Michael Pineda – New York Yankees
Thoughts:
- I know Jeremy Hellickson may look low, especially when you take into account his 2011 statistics (2.95 ERA, 1.15 WHIP over 189.0 IP). However, does anyone really expect him to be able to replicate a .223 BABIP or 82.0% strand rate? Sure, he may improve his strikeout rate (5.57 K/9 in ’11), but it’s far from enough. Pitching in the AL East, I would definitely proceed with caution. For more of my thoughts on Hellickson, click here.
- Speaking of players who are a threat regress, Ricky Romero is another AL East pitcher who enjoyed tremendous luck in 2011 (.242 BABIP, 79.2% strand rate). He should be a good pitcher, but I definitely wouldn’t consider him a great one and overvalue him based on last year’s numbers. For more on him, click here.
- Colby Lewis was not quite what fantasy owners had hoped for in 2011, with a 4.40 ERA. A lot of the issues had to do with a decline in his strikeout rate (7.59 K/9 after and 8.78 mark in ’10), as well as getting beat by the long ball (1.57 HR/9). However, with a 1.21 WHIP, there was still plenty to like. If he can correct the two issues (and I would expect him to), he suddenly becomes a great option once again.
- We all know the risks Francisco Liriano brings with him, but can how can we overlook his Spring Training success? He is as high risk/high reward as it gets, despite showing like he has recaptured his old form. Still, it’s a gamble I want to take.
- While Michael Pineda will open the season on the DL, there is too much upside to completely knock him off the Top 25 rankings. The Yankees will use this time to try to correct the issues he was having and get him back to the pitcher he showed he was in 2011.
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Make sure to check out all of our 2012 rankings:
- Catchers
- First Basemen
- Second Basemen
- Third Basemen
- Shortstops
- Outfielders: 1-20 | 21-40
- Starting Pitchers: 1-20 | 21-40 | 41-60
- Closers
Darvis over Wilson? With Darvish a completely unknown commodity (and I don’t care what the eye test says; coming from Japan to the AL West as a starting pitcher is going from the kiddie pool to the deep end) and Wilson moving to a decidedly more pitcher friendly park, I just don’t get the hype around Darvish. He may very well turn out to be a star. But part of being a star is demonstrating success. Darvish has demonstrated none. The offense in Japan is so different, it just doesn’t translate. I’d rather trust minor league MLEs than reach conclusions based on Japanese success.
I think Shields, Wilson, Beckett, and maybe even Moore belong higher on that list than Darvish.
The Professor has been a bit higher on Darvish than I have, and while I don’t agree with all of those guys over Darvish, I think some of them belong there.
That said, what Darvish does have that I don’t think Wilson does, is potential to be great. I think Wilson is good to very good, but nothing makes me think Wilson will ever be great. Darvish has that kind of upside.
I recently drafted Darvish in the 3rd round of yr 2 in a 5 keeper league (so 8th round u could say). I immediately put him on the block. I recieved an offer for a 1st rounder (probably be a middle of the pack pick) in next yrs draft. This yr we’ll have to select 2 additional keepers moving the total to 7. For next yrs draft (the draft I’ll have the pick in) we’ll have to select 3 additional keepers moving total to 10 keepers. I took a day to think it over bc Darvish being an unknown commodity. I then decided to check out Dice-K’s stats from his 1st MLB spring training. There numbers look very similar. I know it’s only spring training and pitchers are harder to judge but I really began to think the odds are against Darvish. Darvish threw the next day and recorded 11 K’s. I then asked for an additional 3rd rounder for next yrs draft. Dude is seriously considering it. Thank YU!!
Hey Prof, I cringe when I see Ricky Romero so far down on this list. Could you link me to your article on him plz. I usually give you the benefit of the doubt as you’re predictions are usually number based but I just cant believe him to be that sadly ranked. He is having a fantastic spring too
kuroda ahead of romero? and romero is much better than #21… and darvish has not done anything to prove he is a top 10 pitcher in the AL
I can’t wait until he’s seen on a regular basis
Hey Guys, here is the link to the Professor’s article on Romero…
http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=12411
I agree I would take Romero over Kuroda, but the Professor brings up some interesting points in his article as well.
As for Yu, like I said, he’s borderline top 10 for me, probably below Shields at least. But the upside of what he is capable of has to have him high. Obviously he hasn’t done anything to prove himself yet, but he hasn’t had the chance to either. He’s a wild card.
But to justify ranking him so high he’d have to reach his full potential in his first yr. To think he has higher potential than anybody else ahead of him would be crazy
I don’t think its crazy at all to say he has more potential than someone like C.J. Wilson.
I think if Darvish goes over 15 wins his offense will be a major factor with that feat.