by Will Overton
For one reason or another a lot of time the focus in fantasy baseball’s waiver wire is on the hitters. Maybe because it feels like it’s harder to find a good hitter on the wire than a good pitcher. This is true, but it can be lead to a dangerous way of running a team.
The mistake made too often by very good owners, myself included, is I tell myself there’s always good pitching on the wire and when I need a pitcher there will be one there. This is usually true, when I need a pitcher I can often times find at least a mediocre one hanging around, except for in the deepest of leagues.
Here’s the thing though, how many good pitchers did you miss out on cause you weren’t paying attention? You may have found a good pitcher yesterday when you needed one, but what if you were paying attention three weeks ago and could’ve had Jake Peavy who last start aside is reverting back to near his old form and is certainly someone to own in all leagues.
You will always be more observant of a particular position on the wire when it’s a priority, but it pays to pay attention at all times as well. Because even if you didn’t need Jake Peavy a couple weeks ago I bet you wouldn’t mind having him now, if for nothing else as trade bait.
So with all of this having been said, this week’s waiver worthy is dedicated to some pitchers who are available in a lot of leagues who you should be paying attention to.
Bud Norris – Houston Astros: I have to assume this one is only for standard league players, but Norris is available in a little less than 40% of leagues on ESPN still. Norris was drafted in almost every league, but after racking up a 5.84 ERA in his first four starts he started getting dropped at a very quick rate. Luckily for you he isn’t getting picked back up as fast. In his last three starts Norris has allowed just one run in 19 innings with 21 K’s. The last two times out on the mound he has 17 K’s and 2 BB’s in 13 innings. Don’t hesitate, Norris has special stuff and despite the slow start he’s going to put up numbers that’ll make the owners who drafted and dropped him have serious regret.
James McDonald – Pittsburgh Pirates: Here is a guy whose ownership rate has slowly started to rise the last week or two as people are starting to realize he might be for real. We’d heard whispers and rumors of how much potential McDonald had, but this year we’re actually seeing it. In his first couple of seasons McDonald couldn’t muster enough control to keep his ERA or WHIP down despite his electric stuff. This season he’s walked just 15 batters in 44.2 innings, a drastic improvement, and he hasn’t walked more than three in a game yet. He also hasn’t given up more than three runs in a game yet, and four times he has allowed just one run. To seal the deal on why you should add him in all formats, he has 33 K’s in his last four starts covering 29 innings. It’s time to start buying in now guys, McDonald really seems to be putting it all together.
Ervin Santana – Los Angeles Angels: Ervin Santana was awful to start the season, absolutely miserable. But considering his track record of success he was also given up on to early in to many leagues. I play in more than one 14 team league where I picked him up off the waiver wire after his fourth start where he got bombed for the fourth time. Since that point he has thrown 30 innings in four starts, allowing only 7 ER and he has a 23:10 k/bb ratio. You’d like to see a few less walks even still, but it’s clear the guy is turning a corner. If you play in one of the 50% of leagues where Santana is available, jump on him, than laugh at the guy who dropped him.
Phil Hughes – New York Yankees: I know there aren’t many people who believe Hughes can still be a good pitcher, but I do. Right now he’s owned in fewer leagues than Rick Porcello, Andy Pettite and Jair Jurrjens. This is a mistake. Hughes got off to a rocky start this season, but he has put together two solid starts allowing just four runs in 14.1 innings and has a 11:2 k/bb ratio. Hughes has shown good control so far with very few walks, though he has to keep the ball in the park. Coming off a couple good starts and with Hughes potential I would give him a look in deep leagues, he’s out there in a whole bunch of them.
Anthony Bass – San Diego Padres: The Professor turned me on to Bass and I couldn’t be more thankful to him for it as he has been a stellar deep league pickup for me. Bass was starting to get some notice in deep leagues, but a bad start turned some off and he’s now back down around 5% owned, not bad for a guy with a 2.87 ERA and 45 K’s in 47 innings. Take out that one bad start and Bass has a 1.95 ERA as a starter with 38 K’s in 37 IP. The Padres have seen a few injuries to their pitching so Bass’ spot is secure right now and will be as long as he’s pitching like this. And remember, he’s pitching half his games in Petco Park, the most pitcher friendly park in baseball. Bass is a very good deep league add and standard league stream.
Felipe Paulino – Kansas City Royals: I consider Paulino to be consistently underrated, but he may start getting people’s attention this season, at least he should. Paulino couldn’t start until May because of an injury, but he has gotten off to a fast start. In three starts Paulino has pitched 18.2 innings and allowed just four runs, all in one game. He also has a 21:5 k/bb ratio so far. The K’s are not a surprise as Paulino could come close to leading the league in K’s if he threw 200 innings in a season. But walks have always been his Achilles heel, so to see just five issued in three games is a very positive sign. All deep leagues should have Paulino owned and I’ll go out on a limb and say he’ll be owned in the majority of standard leagues by season’s end.
Which pitchers are on your radar and who are you avoiding? Do you actively scout out the pitching section of your waiver wire even when you don’t necessarily need one? I’d love your thoughts and input.
I couldn’t agree more. I already have picked up Santana and Norris. I have been rewarded with four wins since pickup. Also got and dropped Hughes for start against Seattle(W). I decided to pass on Hughes vs Blue Jays. Bass already gone in my leagues. I’m thankful tip on Paulino, just started to notice him.
Grabbed Paulino before the game last night to replace Niemann on the DL. Originally it was just to stream, but after his recent performances I’m toying with rostering him for the long haul.
But I’m leery of that. I can’t help but mentally pigeonhole Paulino with guys like Jorge De La Rosa and Jonathan Sanchez of, say, three years ago. Lotsa Ks for sure, and the occasional gem of a game, but not reliable to go deep into games, as a rule, and ERA and WHIP-busters. Plus, to keep Paulino on my roster I’ll have to drop Detwiler within a week and I don’t know if I’m prepared to do that either.
Thanks for the comments Milo.
Chief – That’s a tough call, I like Paulino quite a bit so I would probably take him over Detwiler, but I see where your coming from. He is a risk. It’s early, but he seems to be toning down the walks some so far.
How about Wei-Yin Chen or Friedrich? Care to discuss?
Hey Will:
Hope all is well…
Getting crushed with injuries lately and it’s forcing my hand.
Deep 14 team, mixed, non-keeper, 6×6 (ops, holds) league — 4 bench spots, no DL. Thought i might be able to keep Adam Lind on bench in light of his DFA, but due to injury and stashes — Jennings, Reimold, Morse and Bauer, not sure that’s possible anymore
Need to fill 1 bat slot (utility) so could drop the afore mentioned Lind, Eric O’Flaherty or Mike Minor — for the best 6×6 bat for 2 weeks or so until either Jennings or Morse is ready. Is Lind really this bad!?
We start 12 pitchers weekly (4 SP, 2 RP, 6 flex).
My SP staff: Gio, Garza, Capuano, Norris, Scherzer, Detwiler, Volquez, Minor, Bauer
My RP staff: Kenley, Chapman, Romo, O’flaherty
Here are my available bat options on the wire:
Chris Heisey – getting decent pt, but don’t trust Dusty with the Ludwick timeshare…
Todd Frasier – Rolen injured per usual and seems to be hitting. Concerned about his ability to hit for avg, but this is a stop gap and he had double digit bombs/swipes in minors last year..
Will Venable – I know he platoons with Denorfia, but been hot lately. Guess i need to see how many lefties Pads face next week.
Eric Thames – underperforming, but seems to be safe with Sniders hiccup in AAA.
Seth Smith – been swinging better bat lately.
Tyler Colvin – getting more run, Fowler seems to back, however…
Please let me know your thoughts on who to drop (Lind, Minor or e’oflaherty) and who you like best from the above group of bats. I’m leaning dumping O’flaherty just cause middle relief arms, though valuable in my league, are easier to replace…
Gracias
I am not a Lind fan, but he really isn’t as bad he has been. Just not sure he’s as good as he has been in the past either.
I can see dropping O’Flaherty if you don’t need to have those holds right now.
I think the guys I would lean towards as hitters are Eric Thames and Todd Frazier based on playing time/performance. The other guys are just hard to count on to play everyday other than Seth Smith. And I like Thames upside more than Smith’s.
Thx, will
Moved on Frazier…
Regarding Lind, would you rather own Nolan Arenado and speculate on him versus Lind ROS?
This is not a keeper league.
Thx
PROSPECT QUESTIONS:
#1. BATS — Who gets called up first and what type of #s do you project ROS?
Nolan Arenado – not really raking, but has to be better than what Rockies currently have at 3rd. Im consider stashing now.
Wil Myers – saw he got promoted to AAA yesterday.
Brett Jackson – Trout light?
* Harper, Trout, Middlebrooks and Rizzo already owned and spoken for in my league.
thanks
Arenado is number one for me. Like you say the Rocks need him and he has serious upside. If he gets called up early in June I can see him hitting 10 – 15 HR’s this season.
Jackson is probably number two if this isn’t a keeper league. The Cubs are getting some suprise production in the OF, but who knows if it’ll last and I think he’s MLB ready.
Myers is better long term than Jackson, but I don’t know if he gets called up before September.
I’ve followed McDonald for awhile now. He is a free agent in my league. And Latos is just not right. Could you make a case for starting McDonald over Latos for awhile? I’ve got only 3 free agent moves left this season and I’m OK in pitching right now — is McDonald a gem worth spending one of my precious transactions on?
Wow that’s tough. Three moves is tough to work with. How deep is the league and is McDonald head and shoulders above the rest of the guys on the wire?
I really like McDonald and I think he can maintain an ERA around 3.25 – 3.50 with 8 – 9 K/9.
And I could make a case for McDonald over Latos as a starter until Latos turns it around, McDonald is rolling right now.
I appreciate posts like this because it points me at some guys to look at. However, it would have been more helpful if we received the full picture on these guys. Take Paulino for example. He has a 1.93ERA and 2.22FIP but ZiPS has him with a 4.26ERA and 3.60FIP the rest of the way. In other words, he’s doing great but you’re buying high. Why is ZiPS bearish on Paulino? His unsustainable 5.9HR/FB, 87%LOB and a decreased GB%. The same could be said for McDonald, 5.0HR/FB, 79%LOB. Bass scares me because he’s never had this high of a K/9 over A-ball. Of course, he FLEW through the minors last season (starting 2011 in Rookie) so his low K/9 numbers in the minors could be attributed to his fast ascent. I’m all in (again) on Norris. Hughes is who we thought he was.
i haven’t been this interested in a pirates starter since 2006 ian snell ,and i see some similarities .
love the k’s that mcdonald is recording but would like to see him go a bit deeper , innings-wise .
obviously , in order to do that , he’s going to have to pitch more to contact and focus less on striking everyone out .
but , with that anemic offense supporting him , i can understand his reluctance to do so .
whenever snell attempted to do so , which wasn’t that often , he became susceptible to the long ball .
(also, same with cueto 2008-2009 … the guy would be rolling along just fine , but entering that 7th inning , you could just anticipate him giving up that home run . the best that you could hope for is that they’d be of just the solo variety).
maybe it’s a “3rd time through the order” type of thing , but i think that mcdonald should pitch more to contact at pitching-favorable ballparks .
this means that he would have to “adjust” his approach , from game to game (something snell always seemed reluctant to do) , but i think mcdonald might be more successful and willing to adapt .
oops , almost forgot … nice article , Will .