As always, there are some good, some bad and some ugly two-start options for the coming week. Who should we gamble on? Who should we ignore? Let’s take a look:
Must Start Options:
- Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies – @ NYM, vs. Mia
- Justin Verlander – Detroit Tigers – @ Bos, vs. NYY
- Jered Weaver – Los Angeles Angels – vs. NYY, vs. Tex
Pitchers That You Should Start:
Lance Lynn – St. Louis Cardinals – @ Atl, @ NYM
I’ve repeatedly made my feelings on Lynn known, and the regression has definitely started (10 ER over his last 18.0 innings). While the metrics have become more believable (.265 BABIP, 82.5% strand rate), there is definitely still room for the numbers to fall even more. Obviously, he’s proven that he can win games (7 W), but he hasn’t gone more than 6 innings in each of his past four starts. Asking your bullpen to consistently get you 9 outs makes wins a lot tougher to come by. It’s nearly impossible to bench him, but just know that there’s the risk for further regression and wins could be tricky.
James McDonald – Pittsburgh Pirates – vs. Cin, @ Mil
The matchups aren’t necessarily the best, but how can we ignore the type of hot stretch McDonald is on? He’s struck out at least 7 in each of his past six starts, with 52 K over 41.2 IP. He’s gone 3-1 over that stretch, allowing just 10 ER. While it’s hard to call him a lock, it’s also impossible to have him on your bench at this point. We’ve long heard about his potential, so ride the wave while you can.
Chris Sale – Chicago White Sox – @ TB, vs. Sea
After his brief move to the bullpen to act as the White Sox closer, Sale has returned to the rotation seamlessly. He’s won his last two starts, allowing 1 ER over 12.1 innings of work. While Tampa Bay is a decent offense, without Evan Longoria they aren’t what they potentially could be. Throw in the matchup with a weaker Mariners offense and it’s nearly impossible to imagine having him on your bench.
More pitchers you should start:
- Trevor Cahill – Arizona Diamondbacks – @ SF, @ SD
- Doug Fister – Detroit Tigers – @ Bos, vs. NYY
- Tommy Hanson – Atlanta Braves – vs. Stl, @ Was
- Ted Lilly – Los Angeles Dodgers – vs. Mil, @ Col
- Shaun Marcum – Milwaukee Brewers – @ LAD, vs. Pit
- Wandy Rodriguez – Houston Astros – @ Col, vs. Cin
- Jordan Zimmermann – Washington Nationals – @ Mia, vs. Atl
Useable (or Benchable) Depending On Your Other Options:
Daniel Bard – Boston Red Sox – vs. Det, @ Tor
We’ve spoken a lot about Bard and there are justifiable concerns regarding him at this point. We all knew he wasn’t going to bring the same velocity that he did when he was coming out of the bullpen, but a 4 mph drop is substantial. It certainly has affected his strikeout rate, as he’s gone from striking out over a better per inning to a miniscule 5.25 K/9 thus far this season. He also has had awful control, with a 5.44 BB/9. He has strikeout upside, which makes him alluring in a two-start week, but he’s shown little to make us trust him. He has walked 4 or more in four straight starts and whiffed 3 or less in five straight. Taking on two strong offenses (he allowed 5 ER in 5.0 innings against Toronto earlier in the year), I’d definitely try to find a more trustworthy option.
Scott Diamond – Minnesota Twins – vs. Oak, @ Cle
Diamond has pitched well in his four starts for the Twins, in large part due to tremendous control (3 BB over 25.1 IP), as he’s posted a 1.78 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The lefty has always had good control in the minor leagues (2.84 BB/9), but this is obviously excessive. Throw in the lack of strikeout upside, and I would consider Diamond a very risky play. The matchups seem favorable, but there is a lot of risk of him getting torched. I’d proceed with extreme caution.
Matt Moore – Tampa Bay Rays – vs. CWS, vs. Bal
I think at this point in the season we all just kind of assumed Moore would be in the must start category. However, the year has been a disappointing season thus far, with a 5.07 ERA and 1.57 WHIP through his first nine starts. While he has suffered from some poor luck (.309 BABIP, 66.9% strand rate), the ultimate blame lies with his control (4.89 BB/9). Obviously he has tremendous upside, but with the way he’s been pitching it’s not unthinkable to sit him down if you have more dependable options.
Carlos Zambrano – Miami Marlins – vs. Was, @ Phi
I know his overall numbers have been good, with a 2.85 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. We also know he was pitching well over his head, and the thrashing he took in his last outing against the Rockies (7 ER in 5.0 IP) could just be the beginning of things to come. He’s a huge risk, as even with the poor outing he’s benefiting from a .233 BABIP. If I had better options I would definitely be avoiding him.
Other pitchers to consider:
- Jake Arrieta – Baltimore Orioles – @ Tor, @ TB
- Bronson Arroyo – Cincinnati Reds – @ Pit, @ Hou
- Felix Doubront – Boston Red Sox – vs. Det, @ Tor
- Aaron Harang – Los Angeles Dodgers – vs. Mil, @ Col
- Matt Harrison – Texas Rangers – vs. Sea, @ LAA
- Phil Hughes – New York Yankees – @ LAA, @ Det
- Kevin Millwood – Seattle Mariners – @ Tex, @ CWS
- Juan Nicasio – Colorado Rockies – vs. Hou, vs. LAD
- Jonathan Niese – New York Mets – vs. Phi, vs. Stl
- Alex White – Colorado Rockies – vs. Hou, vs. LAD
- Travis Wood – Chicago Cubs – vs. SD, @ SF
- Barry Zito – San Francisco Giants – vs. ARI, vs. CHC
Pitchers To Be Benched:
- Nate Adcock – Kansas City Royals – @ Cle, vs. Oak
- Drew Hutchison – Toronto Blue Jays – vs. Bal, vs. Bos
- Zach McAllister – Cleveland Indians – vs. KC, vs. Min
- Jeff Suppan – San Diego Padres – @ CHC, vs. Ari
I can see Nicasio having huge week if healthy, I’d stay away from AL East with NYY and Bos gaining momentum and what do you think about Andrew Miller out of the Bos pen? High 90′s, uncommon arm angle, 3 pitches including nice moving change-up when controlled and should post big HD and W #’s playing with that offense and bad SP (comebacks).
Really? I own Nicasio in a deep weekly lock league, and I’m likely to bench him, two starts or not. The home/away splits scare the hell out of me. The strikeouts are nice but the control is pretty awful and the potential for meltdown is too much for me to consider.
This is always a good column, and I’m kind of ashamed to point out a major disagreement when I agree with virtually everything else in it, but . . .
Wow! One “should” start Fister . . . “should” . . . as in:
1.) You “should” keep both hands on the steering wheel while driving . . .
2.) You “should” exercise daily . . .
3.) Women over 40 “should” get a mammogram once a year . . .
4.) You “should” start Doug Fister against the Red Sox and Yankees this week . . .
Ummm . . . that last one really sounds like it doesn’t belong in that group now, does it?
Those teams can be had by a K-artist (see Felipe Paulino vs. the Yanks this year), but they’ll eat up those “pitch-to-contact” guys, no matter how good. Man, I’d almost have to give some thought about starting a Top-10 pitcher against those two teams in the same week.
But Fister? No thanks. Not with his style, not with that defense behind him, and not in warm weather. I have no desire to blow up my week’s ERA and WHIP on a Monday. I’ll gladly bench him for the duration of this schedule aberration and live to fight another day, regardless of the fantasy league format.
If he gets through those two games with little or no damage, then I’ll gladly tip my hat: to him for his skill, and to you for having a pair of mighty big ones . . . bigger than I have for a week’s match-ups that, to put it mildly, I find unappealing (at best).
I can understand that point of view and Fister was the one guy I really wrestled with where to place. They are tough matchups, but he has pitched extremely well since coming to Detroit and both starts are very winnable (against Doubront and Kuroda).
Plus, I’d be a bit more worried if the start against the Yankees was on the road as opposed to at home.
I really could go either way with him and I don’t disagree that maybe he should’ve been in the next tier down. That said, it’s hard to imagine people having significantly more trustworthy options that would move him to the bench.
Oh, they’re winnable, all right . . . but are they 3-2 winnable, or 8-7 winnable?
And I’m not in any way dissing the talent of Fister. But two weeks ago I won a week in grand style solely because my opponent set up his schedule to have Cliff Lee pitch against the Red Sox. That one game shifted four categories from his column to mine, and maybe because that’s so fresh in my mind is why I’m so leery of Fister as a viable option. Maybe they shouldn’t, and maybe one should ignore them and stick coldly to what the numbers say, but little recent things like that can’t help but impress and influence a fellow in making these tough fantasy decisions when confronted with them.
better start? Eric Stults @Cubs -or- Jarrod Parker @Twins
im looking for WHIP & ERA more than strikeouts
I’d definitely be going with Parker. I have no faith in Stults in the least.
thanks for the advice professor!!