Fantasy Fallout: Phillies Trade Shane Victorino & Hunter Pence

The dismantling of the Phillies is in full force.  Let’s break down the fallout from their deals:

  1. The Phillies traded Shane Victorino to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Josh Lindblom & Etan Martin
  2. The Phillies traded Hunter Pence to the San Francisco Giants for Nate Schierholtz, Tommy Joseph & Seth Rosin

The Dodgers Fallout:
Victorino has not been himself this season, but the Phillies lineup was also battered and bruised much of the season.  Now, he should slide into the Dodgers leadoff spot and hit in front of Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier & Hanley Ramirez.  That’s a spot that anyone would be envious of.

As it is, even while he has “struggled” he has managed 24 SB, 40 RBI and 46 R.  Now at the top of the Dodgers lineup, he should be a huge source of runs scored as he is re-energized for the pennant race.  Those who bought low on him recently should be extremely happy.

The long-term effects, at least for 2012, will be that Dee Gordon will likely be slotted towards the bottom of the order once he returns from injury.  That shouldn’t be a surprise, considering how poorly he was hitting earlier in the year, but it will have a significant effect on his value.  How much is he going to get to run batting seventh?  How many runs is he going to be able to score?  While he should be valuable in 2013 and beyond, his immediate value has been diminished greatly.  If you are desperate for stolen bases I would continue to hold onto him, but just be aware of what you are getting.

The Giants Fallout:
We all know what Pence is, so there isn’t much to breakdown from their perspective.  For the second straight season they get a much needed bat for the middle of their lineup who should help form a formidable trio with Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval (once healthy).  While he moves to a worse hitter’s ballpark, his value should remain unchanged.

The Phillies Fallout:
Dominic Brown is going to be returning to the Phillies, and John Mayberry Jr. should grab regular playing time.  At Triple-A this season Brown was hitting .286 with 5 HR, 28 RBI, 33 R and 4 SB in 220 AB.  We have long heard about his potential and he should get an extended look, but he needs to significantly improve on those numbers.

Mayberry has played fairly well, with 8 HR in 239 AB for the Phillies this season, is striking out far too much (26.9%).  In deeper formats he’s intriguing, however, considering he hit 15 HR with a 18.6% strikeout rate in 267 AB a year ago.  The HR/FB is still there (17.4%) and he’s hitting a good line drive rate (20.9%).  As an under-the-radar pickup, he’s well worth it.

As for the players they received, Lindblom has potential but is not going to hold much value in Philadelphia as he is going to work as a middle reliever.  Baseball America did rank him as the Dodgers #8 prospect entering the season, so there is promise.  In dynasty leagues he could be worth stashing, if possible, as it’s not impossible that he eventually becomes closing option.

Martin has a 3.58 ERA, 112 K and 61 BB over 118.0 IP at Double-A this season. Had 66 BB in 95.1 innings in ’11, so that is something that desperately needs to be corrected.

Schierholtz should benefit from getting out of San Francisco.  He has 5 HR in 196 AB this season, with all of them coming in his 86 games on the road.  He’s never truly been given a chance to play every day, though he may get that chance if Juan Pierre is also moved today or in August (at worst he should share time with Dominic Brown).  He could get hot and those in deeper formats will want to take a flier on him.

Joseph is the real coup for the Phillies, as he gives them a long-term replacement to Carlos Ruiz behind the plate.  Baseball America ranked him as the Giants’ #2 prospect prior to the year saying, “Joseph’s short, direct swing generates plenty of backspin and gives him plus power to all fields. He still needs to improve his approach and plate discipline in order to cut down on his strikeouts and hit for a higher average. His power will play at first base, where he has seen time, but Joseph now looks like he’ll be able to stay at catcher after making huge strides blocking balls and cleaning up his footwork.”  This season he is hitting .260 with 8 HR and 38 RBI in 304 AB at Double-A.

Rosin has throw 56.1 innings at Single-A in 34 appearances (5 starts) posting a 4.31 ERA with 68 K and 18 BB.  He may simply work as a middle reliever, though time will tell.

 

Posted on by Rotoprofessor. This entry was posted in Transaction Analysis. Bookmark the permalink.

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3 Responses to Fantasy Fallout: Phillies Trade Shane Victorino & Hunter Pence

  1. S says:

    Hopefully Victorino’s SBs will get a bump as well. Granted 24 SBs is very good but he did that mostly batting in the 5 hole and with a jump to leadoff he’ll have even more opportunities to run.

    • jmax says:

      Not necessarily. With those bats behind him they may not take the chance

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      I don’t think that they are going to stop him from running (the didn’t give Dee Gordon a stop sign), I just don’t know that he’s got the ability to steal many more than he has already. I would expect the status quo, with runs scored being his biggest increase in value.

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