I’m still wheeling and dealing, setting up my keepers in my auction league. Today, I want to open up for discussion my recent trade of Matt Wieters for Clayton Kershaw. Let’s look at the details:
- Both players can be kept for 2009 at $2
- After 2009, both players are eligible to be returned to the auction pool or, you can keep them for $1 more then the CBS value (you have this option on one player every season)
So, why did I make the trade? I essentially have Kelly Shoppach ($2) & Geovany Soto ($19) locked up to fill my two catching slots. While Wieters has the potential to be the best catcher in baseball, the fact that he is not likely to be up until late May obviously hurts his value. I’ve discussed this before here, but given the fact that the fill-in alternatives on the waiver wire are likely to be players like Brian Schneider (this is a 13-team league), having a hole like that for nearly 2 months could be very costly.
I love Kershaw for 2009, I’ve said it here before. I’ve drawn the comparison to Tim Lincecum, and while that may be unlikely, he has the potential to be very, very good. Unlike Wieters, he’s had major league experience and is set to contribute from April 1 on. He also threw 169 innings last season between Triple A and the majors, so there really isn’t a major concern about him being limited.
To me, having a pitcher that I am extremely high on over a potentially great player for four months of the season seemed like an easy decision. In talking to a few other people, however, they disagreed, considering Wieters a talent that is too valuable to trade. A power hitting catcher who also hits for average, how often do they come around?
I’d agree with that, to a point, but for 2009 I just don’t agree. Kershaw has the chance to be a Top 20 pitcher this season, so locking him up for $2 is just as rare. Given the other catchers I have at my disposal, I’d much rather go with that.
So, what does everyone else think? Is this a trade you’d make? Would you rather have Wieters at $2 over Soto at $19?
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I can understand the move, especially given your catcher situation. I’d always take the hitter over the pitcher if they’re relatively equal in value. I think you might be a year too early in predicting a breakout campaign for Kershaw.
This is a fun trade to think about, but I agree with Andrew. Who wins this deal will be determined in 2010. This year, it’s much ado about nothing.
I’d rather have Kershaw though. C has become relatively deep this season and you already have 2 solid guys. Wieters is more likely to be Jay Bruce than Evan Longoria with the stick and in terms of when he’s called up – which is no knock, just a tempered expectation for a half-season worth of production.
Soto isn’t worth $19 in a mixed league, so in reality you only have Shoppach as a keeper and even he won’t offer much profit at $2 because of the likely drag on your batting average. Wieters could easily be a $10-$15 player this year, whereas Kershaw probably won’t pitch enough innings to reach that value. So, I vote Wieters and nominate you as the worst fantasy trader of the year
J/K
Mike, I’m curious why you do not think Soto is worth $19, especially in a 13-team league that requires 2 starting catchers?
Also, how many innings do you expect Kershaw to throw this season? To me, a pitcher with tremendous upside (Top 15-20 potential) who is going to be in the rotation for the entire season, has a lot of value and could easily equal the value of Wieters at $10-15. Personally, I also don’t think Wieters is going to get to the value your proposing for him, especially if the rumors of him not coming up until late May are true. I know a few hitters have come up from the minors and produced immediately (i.e. Ryan Braun), but I don’t think it is something that should just be expected.
I haven’t run my values yet, but from past experience, only the top 3 catchers or so are worth $19+, and Soto isn’t a top 3 catcher. Tim Dierkes at RotoAuthority posted his values and he’s got Soto at $15. Also, since it’s a keeper league, I figure you’d want to keep players who are undervalued, so even if Soto was worth $19, you wouldn’t even be making a profit.
I think 160-180 innings for Kershaw is a reasonable expectation. I definitely am a big fan of his, but his WHIP isn’t close to helping you, and his ERA will probably be only a slight help at best (if it ends up in the high-3.00 range, which I think it will). So he’s really only good for strikeouts at this point.
I guess that’s where you and I differ on our opinion of Soto, as I value him as the #2 catcher in the league, behind only McCann.
I’d also disagree that Kershaw is only useful in the K department as I am very high on him heading into the season.
I’d say it’s safe to say that we agree to disagree about this trade. Considering the trade, I fully expected that, as it is not a straight-forward move. Even if I didn’t have Soto, I still would have made it, just because of the uncertainty of when Wieters will actually be brought up. What if he gets off to a slow start at Triple A? That obviously could push back his arrival time and hurt his value tremendously.