I am going to start with some extremely early 2013 positional rankings, just so we can all get an idea of where people currently sit. Keep in mind these rankings are preliminary and before I have done any of my projections. That means that there is going to be a lot of room for fluctuation between now and draft day.
- Buster Posey – San Francisco Giants
- Brian McCann – Atlanta Braves
- Carlos Santana – Cleveland Indians
- Yadier Molina – St. Louis Cardinals
- Miguel Montero – Arizona Diamondbacks
- Matt Wieters – Baltimore Orioles
- Salvador Perez – Kansas City Royals
- Joe Mauer – Minnesota Twins
- Jonathan Lucroy – Milwaukee Brewers
- Jesus Montero – Seattle Mariners
- Carlos Ruiz – Philadelphia Phillies
- Wilin Rosario – Colorado Rockies
- A.J. Pierzynski – Chicago White Sox
- Mike Napoli – Texas Rangers
- Alex Avila – Detroit Tigers
Thoughts:
- Maybe I am a glutton for punishment, but I am still a believer in Carlos Santana and that he will put things together. With a 16.7% strikeout rate and 19.6% line drive rate, you would think that he would be better than a .254 hitter. Maybe he doesn’t reach the .300 plateau that we all expected, but .280+ should be a certainty. He also showed the ability to hit for power (27 HR in 2011) and should be a constant in the middle of the Indians lineup. That should mean plenty of opportunities for RBI and R. In other words, he should be the total package… Of course, the caveat is IF he can put it all together. I am willing to bet that he will, but the reality is you should not have to use a high draft pick to get him this year.
- I know Brian McCann has struggled this year, but a .228 BABIP?! I don’t think anyone truly buys into that number. He’s continued to show power (20 HR) and RBI (64), so with a rebound in the average department he should return to being one of the top fantasy catchers in the league.
- Joe Mauer may not hit 20+ HR, but if he’s going to hit over .300 and have over 150 RBI/R, he is going to be a commodity in all formats. There’s just no way around that.
- Those who have been following Rotoprofessor know how highly I have thought of Salvador Perez. Since returning from his injury earlier this season he is quickly proving me right. In 245 AB he’s hit .310 with 11 HR, 36 RBI and 36 R. Project those numbers out for a full season and you have an elite MLB catcher. The power was always the question, not his ability to hit, and a 14.1% HR/FB is far from unbelievable. He is a fantasy stud in the making.
- Where will Mike Napoli land as a free agent this offseason? That will certainly influence his value, though a healthy Napoli should provide more than enough with the bat to be worth owning.
Remember when Napoli was being drafted as the #1 Catcher overall? Wow, how a year changes things….
What are the prospects of Travis d’Arnaud or Mike Zunino producing top-15 or top-20 catcher value next year?
eric – I think you will have a better shot at d’Arnaud, though it depends on if the Blue Jays make a move. Obviously, in deeper formats both are worth monitoring though.
Nick – It definitely does, though I never bought him as the top option (I know some did). Injuries have a habit of killing value, though.
Firstly I agree with you, but it is amusing that AJ Pierzynski has a monster career year but is ranked #13. I do not think he returns anywhere near those power numbers, yet it goes to show that one year (likely) flukes can’t match up to some solid catching potential in Rosario, Lucroy, Perez, etc.
Where would you put Victor Martinez if he is eligible?
What about V Mart? He should maintain catcher eligibility from 2011.
Martinez was a bit of an oversight, as he should have catching eligibility in most formats (though, it will depend of your league). It’s hard to put him in the top group, but I would probably put him right around the Wieters/Salvador Perez spot in the rankings of he is eligible.
There is no questioning his bat, though there is a lot of risk given his age and missing an entire season.
Yasmani Grandal, thoughts? Two catcher league, NL only and I have him and Lucroy.
A.J. should be without a doubt one of the top 10 on this list. Why you ask? 2012 stats: 27 HR, .276 AVG, 76 RBI’S, .501 SLG, why isn’t A.J. among the best? I understand he’s coming off a career year but he’s getting better with age and probably has 2-3 great years left. Not to metion he is one of the most competitive, and smartest players in the league. The only thing he lacks is his arm behind the plate, but really who has an arm these day anyway?
Steve, he is going to enter 2013 at 36-years old and has never shown this type of power before (18.8% HR/FB). In fact, he had been under 9% eac of the past five seasons and is at 9.3% for his career.
It has been a great season, but it is impossible for me t think that there is any chance he can replicate it,
No Salty? At least 12-15? I know his average is low… But hit 25HR… I think he can go for .270-20-70 next year… No?
Right now playing time is a major concern. There’s no guarantee he plays regularly in Boston (Ryan Lavarnway), so until that situation plays out we are going to have to be cautious.
Thoughts on Yasmani Grandal? I thought I might see him sneak into the bottom of this list.
Grandal was definitely in consideration, but I just am not a full believer in what he did in the Majors. He’s definitely a player we will be focusing on in our Rookie Recap series as the offseason progresses.
Prof;
How probable is it that Jesus Montero fulfills original expectations? Just picked him up as high potential flier in keeper league.
I do not believe jesus montero will live up to the hype.
he is a decent flier and he could be a great #2 catcher in AL ONLY formats. but to think he will be a middle of the order run producer for several seasons? no probably not