There are now just 10 days left to the baseball season, making each day that much more important if you are chasing a title. How did Max Scherzer & Clayton Kershaw fare in their returns to the mound? Who is hot? Who is not? Let’s take a look at what yesterday’s games told us:
- After leaving his last start after just 2.0 innings due to injury, Max Scherzer returned to the mound against the Twins yesterday. However, he didn’t fare well as he allowed 3 ER on 6 H and 1 BB, striking out 4, over 5.0 innings. Fantasy owners should take out of this that he was healthy enough to return to the mound, which is extremely important. Assuming he came out of this start healthy Scherzer will get a rematch with the Twins his next time out. While these results weren’t top notch, his strikeout potential makes him a must start down the stretch.
- Josh Donaldson continues to produce for the A’s. He went 2-4 with 2 R yesterday and has now scored 5 R in his past 4 games. He hasn’t hit a HR since September 9 (and has just 5 RBI for the month), but he has shown his power potential at Triple-A the past few years (48 HR in 947 AB, though it was in the PCL). Considering he is playing 3B, while maintaining catcher eligibility, that potential makes him well worth eyeing in all formats. Don’t expect big power numbers, but if he can contribute a little bit while continuing to score runs he will have plenty of value.
- Gorkys Hernandez went 0-3 with 1 SB for the Marlins yesterday. He’s been playing every day for the past week and, while the numbers aren’t overly impressive (7-24 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 1 R and 3 SB over 6 games), he is getting the opportunity to produce. He’s batting second in the order and has shown speed in the past. Will he continue to play over the final 10 days? He easily could, even when (or if) Mike Stanton returns. He’s not a high level option, but if you are looking for some low-end speed he could hold value.
- While Cliff Lee didn’t win, his performance was still noteworthy. He allowed 2 R (1 earned) on 9 H and 0 BB, striking out 11, over 8.0 innings of work. He’s now struck out 21 over his past two starts and has a 2.41 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 100.2 innings since the All-Star Break. In other words, he should continue to be viewed as one of the elite in the game heading into 2013.
- The unexpected star of the day was definitely the Red Sox Felix Doubront, who tossed an absolute gem against the Orioles. He allowed 1 ER on 4 H and 2 BB, striking out 11, over 7.0 innings, though he took a no decision. Doubront has actually been pitching well for three straight starts, allowing 6 ER over 19.1 innings. He has a rematch with the Orioles his next time out, but do not consider him a must use option.
- Jonathan Lucroy extended his hitting streak to 9 games by going 2-5 with 2 RBI. Over the streak he has gone 13-38 with 1 HR and 6 RBI. This has been a breakout campaign, hitting .325 with 10 HR and 55 RBI in just 289 AB. Keep in mind that he entered the day with a .349 BABIP, so there is little chance that he maintains this type of average over a full season. Just something to keep in mind when preparing for 2013, but he should be considered a solid option.
- B.J. Upton went 1-4 with 1 HR, 1 RBI and 1 R, continuing his power surge. He’s now hit 3 HR in his past 4 games, 10 HR in September and 17 HR since August 1. He now has 26 HR and 30 SB on the season, as he makes a late surge towards his first career 30/30 season. We all know the average could struggle, but in a contract year he definitely has picked the right time to explode.
- I think we all expected A.J. Burnett to be better getting out of New York, but I’m not sure anyone expected him to be quite this good. He allowed 1 ER on 4 H and 1 BB, striking out 11, over 8.0 innings to improve to 16-8 with a 3.53 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 172 K on the season. He entered the day with believable metrics (.292 BABIP, 73.5% strand rate), though a groundball rate he hadn’t shown in years (56.8%). If he can maintain that type of level, he should continue to excel moving forward.
- Jake Odorizzi pitched fairly well in his Major League debut, allowing 3 ER on 6 H and 1 BB, striking out 3, over 5.1 innings. He has plenty of upside, as I have talked about before, but it is impossible to trust him over the final 10 days.
- The Indians exploded for 15 runs, led by Carlos Santana who went 3-6 with 2 HR, 5 RBI and 3 R. He has disappointed overall this season, but he is hitting .313 in September and .293 with 13 HR and 45 RBI since the All-Star Break. Those numbers are much more indicative of the potential he possesses.
- Pete Kozma went 2-3 with 1 HR, 2 RBI and 1 R, his first career HR. He’s hitting .273 with 1 HR, 5 RBI, 5 R and 2 SB in 44 AB since joining the Cardinals. He did hit 11 HR in 448 AB at Triple-A prior to his recall, though that should be taken with a grain of salt as it came in the PCL (the same place he hit just 3 HR in 398 AB in ’11). With little power and speed, he really is just relevant in NL-only formats.
- Did anyone really expect Josh Rutledge to be able to maintain the pace he set early on? Of course not, though he does continue to be productive. He went 2-3 with 1 R yesterday, putting him at .294 with 8 HR, 34 RBI, 33 R and 6 SB in 231 AB. Throw in 17 doubles and 5 triples, and we all know his potential for both power and speed. Playing in Coors Field, he should be a solid option in 2013, when he should be manning 2B for the Rockies.
- Adam Dunn went 1-3 yesterday, pushing his September average to .244 (the highest he has been in any month). Of course, his power has also disappeared, with just 1 HR and 2 RBI in 41 AB this month. We all knew the average is a risk, so all we can do is keep our fingers crossed and hope that he can rediscover his power over the final 10 days.
- It was a huge game for Everth Cabrera, going 4-4 with 2 R and 3 SB. While he has 34 SB in 361 AB this season, he actually has struggled to get on base (.313 OBP). With 102 K, is that really a surprise? He has value if you are looking for SB, but otherwise his upside just isn’t there at this point.
- Ryan Dempster allowed 2 ER on 6 H and 1 BB, striking out 8, over 6.2 innings to defeat the Mariners. Since joining the Rangers, however, he is 7-2 but with a 4.48 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. It really shouldn’t be a surprise to see Dempster struggle in the AL, as we discussed at the time of the trade. At least the W are keeping him viable.
- It was a nice start for Drew Smyly, albeit it a short one. Over 4.1 innings (78 pitches) he allowed 1 R (0 earned) on 3 H and 2 BB, striking out 2. However, he is likely ticketed back to the bullpen so don’t bother.
- Clayton Kershaw finally returned to the mound, to mixed results. Over 5.0 innings he allowed 1 ER, but on 5 H and 5 BB, with 5 K. The control is the real question, and you have to wonder if his hip injury played a part in his wildness (he threw just 52 of 92 pitches for strikes). Time will tell, but if you are in a daily league you are going to have to monitor the news to see if he is healthy enough to make another start.
- Adrian Gonzalez went 2-4 with 2 HR, 2 RBI and 2 R. It’s about time, right? Hopefully he is going to catch fire for the final 10 days of the year, but time will tell.
