I am going to start with some extremely early 2013 positional rankings, just so we can all get an idea of where people currently sit. Keep in mind these rankings are preliminary and before I have done any of my projections. That means that there is going to be a lot of room for fluctuation between now and draft day.
- Hanley Ramirez – Los Angeles Dodgers
- Starlin Castro – Chicago Cubs
- Troy Tulowitzki – Colorado Rockies
- Jose Reyes – Miami Marlins
- Ian Desmond – Washington Nationals
- Ben Zobrist – Tampa Bay Rays
- Asdrubal Cabrera – Cleveland Indians
- Elvis Andrus – Texas Rangers
- Jimmy Rollins – Philadelphia Phillies
- Derek Jeter – New York Yankees
- Josh Rutledge – Colorado Rockies
- Alcides Escobar – Kansas City Royals
- Danny Espinosa – Washington Nationals
- Erick Aybar – Los Angeles Angels
- Alexei Ramirez – Chicago White Sox
Thoughts:
- Can Troy Tulowitzki actually stay healthy for an entire season? After seeing his 2012 campaign end in late May, that question hangs over him even more than ever. He’s obviously still going to be a top option, but it’s hard to place him atop the rankings at this point.
- Starlin Castro is hitting .284 with 14 HR, 78 RBI, 77 R and 25 SB. The runs were down due to hitting fifth for a while this season, though that number could easily improve (assuming he settles back into the third spot with Anthony Rizzo hitting cleanup). Throw in the fact that seeing him hit .300+ is extremely realistic (he should improve on a .315 BABIP) and he is clearly one of the elite at his position. The question is, should he be #1 or #2? That is going to be a debate for the offseason, and something that we may go back and forth on right up until draft day.
- Despite missing time, Ian Desmond has shown his 20/20 ability, with 25 HR and 21 SB in just 504 AB. While the power could easily regress (18.7% HR/FB), there’s no reason to think that a healthy Desmond can’t be 20/20 again in 2013.
- It will be interesting to see what happens with Elvis Andrus this offseason. It is easy to imagine the Rangers moving him in an attempt to open up shortstop for Jurickson Profar, one of the top prospects in all of baseball (if that happens, Profar could find himself at the tail end of these rankings). If Andrus is somewhere else, he may not have the potential to score as many runs, so consider his value in flux at this point.
- Can we expect Derek Jeter or Jimmy Rollins to replicate their success in 2013? While both are obviously going to remain viable options, it’s hard to imagine them being this good again next season. Just keep that in mind.
- Josh Rutledge made an instant impact in Colorado and is hitting .285 with 8 HR, 36 RBI, 35 R and 7 SB in 260 AB. He brings power and speed and should slide over to second base full-time next season when a healthy Tulowitzki returns to the lineup. As a low-end option, he should have massive upside.
Make sure to check out the rest of our extremely early 2013 rankings:
Elvis Andrus is beginning to grow into some power, and I really don’t see him performing worse than anyone after Tulo on this list.
He definitely does have that type of potential, but he needs to show it. Tough for someone with a 57% groundball rate t hit many home runs and he only had 21 SB this season.
I am a big fan of Andrus and would definitely recommend him as a buy low candidate, but coming off this year it is hard to push him any higher up e rankings.
What kind of upside do you see from Rutledge? I randomly picked him up at your advice in my keeper league and I’m wondering if I keep him.
I love Rutledge for 2013 and could see him as a 20/20 option. If he sticks in the #2 hole, ahead of Gonzalez, Tlowitzki and Cuddyer, I also think 90+ runs is almost a given.
Keeping him depends on your rules, but I think he is a option. In my auction league where I have him for $2, he is a lock on my roster.
Rutledge is going to be the most overhyped player going into 2013. He has a massively inflated ISO (.202), but with little-to-moderate power (162 Game Projection of 18 HR).
Since 2008, there have only been 5 other players to be able to have an ISO greater than or equal to Rutledge’s and have a worse 162 Game Projection for HR:
Matt Downs, 2011 – .241 ISO ; 15 xHR
Seth Smith, 2009 – .218 ISO ; 18 xHR
Jason Michaels, 2010 – .215 ISO ; 12 xHR
Mike Fontenot, 2008 – .210 ISO ; 12 xHR
George Kottaras, 2012, .206 ISO ; 17 xHR
Do I think he’s going to be overhyped? Absolutely, which is why I said it depends on the format.
I still think, if you value him correctly, he is going to have value as a potential 20/20 threat (right around the 18 HR you had for the 162 game projection).
I’m not about to put him among the Top 10, but if you are deciding between him and guys like Alexei Ramirez or Jhonny Peralta, I’d rather have the younger player with more upside.
What kind of future can we expect from him in the next 3 years though? Is he a guy who could be a top 5 2B/SS?
I’m not sure he would be that high, but 20/20 would definitely make him a Top 10 option at either spot.
I agree that Rutlidge is going to be overhyped and unless you can get him on the cheap I’d stay away.
Most lists I’ve seen have Andrelton Simmons right around 12 – no love for Simmons?
He has the potential, but he needs to bring either power/speed to be a viable option. He could get there, but for me he’s more of a depth option with upside.
I’ll go completely opposite of you on this list and so the safest choice is Ben Zobrist. I don’t trust Hanley anymore and would never draft him unless he came really cheap. Tulo is getting the injury prone tag and is a big risk. You never know which Jose Reyes will show up year after year. Castro is intriguing but being a Cub fan I’ve seen enough of him to know he is overhyped. And I am just not a fan of Desmond.
My league takes into account on-base % so Zobrist and his walks are GREAT! He has back-to-back 20 homer seasons. He can get you 20 steals if he wants. And he’ll hit .270. He is my #1 target at short next season.
I think Hanley settles in nicely w the Dodgers in 2013. With the other talented veterens around him it kinda reminds me of when Randy Moss came to New England.
And I can’t see how Castro can be overhyped when he’s done what he has at age 21. Put him along side every other 21yr old and say he’s overhyped.
Obviously, things change in an OBP league, at least slightly. That said, while Zobrist is a very good option it is hard for me to call him “safe”.
He is a .260 career hitter who hit .238 a few years ago and right around .270 the past two years. As far as the SB goes, He has the upside of 20, but I can’t goin expecting t because he has only gotten there once.
I obviously like Zobrist and wouldn’t mind having him if the other guys don’t fall where. Want them to. Tha said,the others all still have a little bit more upside for me.
I`ve been watching Jean Segura in Mil. First,do you think he gets the starting SS job?, 2nd, What kind of offensive production would you expect from him if he does start?