We all know that third base tends to be a shallower position, but it had its share of surprises in 2012. Among them were the Mariners’ Kyle Seager and the Reds’ Todd Frazier, both seemingly coming out of nowhere to emerge as viable options. Now, the question facing fantasy owners is which one offers more upside in 2013? Let’s take a look:
Average
Seager - He hit .259 last season, but it is easy to point to poor luck as the reason why. He made good contact (16.9% strikeout rate) and hit the ball hard (21.9% line drive rate), yet managed just a .286 BABIP. A .328 hitter in the minor leagues, the ability is clearly there. I wouldn’t go into the year expecting him to it .300+, but .280 is a very reasonable expectation.
Frazier – He hit .273 in ’11, but also was a lot more prone to striking out (22.2%). Given his minor league track record (23.6% in ’10, 22.8% in ’11), there is a very real chance that he regresses in this department in 2013. Would I think he’s going to hit .250? Of course not, but what he showed in 2012 may be close to his ceiling in this department as opposed to his floor.
Edge – Seager
Home Runs
Seager - After not showing much power in the minor leagues, he seemingly discovered his stroke last year by hitting 20 HR (as well as 35 doubles and a triple). There also is clearly a lot of potential for more. His HR/FB was just 9.8% and most of his success was on the road (15 HR away from Safeco Field). However, with the Mariners moving the fences in for 2013, the confines should become much better for power hitters. Given his numbers, 25+ HR would not be an unfair expectation.
Frazier - He did hit 19 HR, and also had a lot less AB than Seager (422 AB). He does have the benefit of a hitters ballpark, though he hit nearly as man home runs on the road (9) as he did at Great American Ballpark. Couple that with the notion that he should assume full-time third base duties and there is hope. that said, I am not sure there is as much projection as there is with Seager. Frazier is what he is, and that is probably a 20-25 HR hitter over a full season (unless he can better his 13.2% Hr/FB from a year ago).
Edge – I think Seager has more room for growth, but chances are this is a draw
RBI
Seager - The Mariners may not be a potent lineup, but by hitting in the middle Seager is going to have ample opportunities to produce. He produced 84 RBI in ’12, spending a lot of time hitting third or fifth. Barring a significant addition or three, there is no reason to think Seager is going to leave the middle portion of the lineup. In fact, any addition would likely just improve his position by giving him more help (coupled with the projected increase power).
Frazier - Unlike Seager, Frazier is likely going to be buried lower in the order. He hit mostly sit or seventh and I don’t see that changing with Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips in the lineup. He will get chances, but not as many.
Edge – Seager
Runs
Seager - As with the RBI, hitting third is going to give him an advantage. While he failed to crack 60 runs last season, spending more time hitting third should help significantly. I would think 70-80ish is realistic, even in a weaker lineup.
Frazier - The Reds have a better offense, but how much talent is really going to be hitting seventh or eighth in the order? He should improve on 55 with more AB, but by how much? I would probably put him in the same range as Seager, for now. However, a cleanup hitter addition in Seattle would change things.
Edge – Push
Stolen Bases
Seager - Don’t undervalue Seager’s 13 SB from last season. After swiping 13+ each of the previous two years, there is every reason to think he can replicate it. Among third baseman with at least 300 AB, there were seven who stole as many as 13 bases.
Frazier - He has stolen as many as 18 bases in e minor leagues, but until he proves he will do it in the Majors (3 in 5 attempts last season), we can’t count on it.
Edge – Seager
Conclusion
Well, it is pretty obvious who gets the edge for me. With a lot of room for improvement in the batting average, the improved dimensions of Safeco Field, a spot in the middle of the order and the ability to chip in some stolen bases, Seager is a player I am buying in all formats. I am sure he will come up in other discussions down the road, but mark him down as a player to target heading into 2013.
What are your thoughts on this matchup? Which player would you rather own? Why
Make sure to check out our extremely early 2013 rankings:
I turned on the Reds game last night and saw Scott Rolen at the hot corner and Frazier riding pine. That can’t be good for Frazier’s value heading into next yr
Rolen is done with the Reds after this season. Unless, for some ridiculous reason, the Reds re-sign him
Dear Professor:
I can keep 8-9 players.
My top offensive keepers are:
Seager – $2 (Glad to see you like him too!)
Salvador Perez – $3
Hosmer – $15
Ortiz – $19
K. Morales – $17
I need to pick from the following pitching pool, Can you rank the following pitchers:
Fister
Jarrod Parker
Pettitte
Alex Cobb
Iwakuma
Yei Chen
Tillman
Casey Jannsen
Nolan
, with all the pitchers similarly priced
was hoping you could rank the following pitchers for me
You have some tough calls there. Just off the top of my head, I would say my favorite is Fister by far.
Then, there are going to be a few different variables that tip things, but Tillman/Parker are probably the next grouping followed by Chen.
I think a lot of it depends on how long you can keep them for…
Suggested topic: article on Tillman. Guy is distrusted by almost all. Mechanic tweaks and workout dedication amp velocity in minors, which transfers to MLB, but then promptly disappears. However, suddenly his secondary pitch usage makes him a force, despite velocity loss. Why hasn’t the loss in velocity caused him to fail, as it did in the past? Is he now a legit number2-3?
I agree with your assessment that Seager is the more valuable player. Considering that he’ll have 2nd base eligibility in a lot of leagues, that will also give him added value. I think the Mariners are heading in the right direction as a team and Seager has a lot to do with that. The decision to move the fences in at Safeco next season will certainly add value to a lot of the Mariners every day hitters. Look for players like Seager, Justin Smoak, Jesus Montero and Michael Saunders to benefit the most. They all have power potential and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if they all hit over 20 homeruns next season.
As a Mariner fan and someone who watches all their games, I can tell you Seager is a above average Major Leaguer in the making. Not a super star, but he’ll make an All Star team in the future, especially if they shift him to 2nd and Ackley to LF. (not likely, but we’ll see what happens this winter)
I have Seager for a buck in my 10 team AL only keeper. Yes please.
Doesn’t seem like you looked very deep into this. Frazier has hit for more power every single step along the way. Pedigree, .225 ISO vs. .163. 44.7 FB% for Frazier vs. 42.3% for Seager. 13.2 HR/FB% for Frzier, 9.8% for Seager. More flyballs. Higher frequency of said flyballs that leave the yard. Unprecedented power outburst for Seager. Not nitpicking your content – it’s quality and free so far be it from me to complain. But this is off base.
It’s not tha I don’t like Frazier, or that he hasn’t shown more in the past. I think there is room for more growth in Seager, especially with the fences being moved in at Safexo (as evidenced by his home/road split) and his position in the batting order.
It says a lot to me about what Dusty Baker thinks of Frazier in that he was so quickly willing to go back to Scott Rolen, despite how well Frazier had been playing.
Tme will tell,but it looks like SeGer is putting things together and is in a better situation. That just makes him more worthy of the selection in my opinion.
R. Prof.:
Would you comment (in the future) on Tyler Colvin, who I see to be a lot like Frazier, as an older prospect now getting more playing time? I see T.C., Belt and Lucroy as early 2013 values, but would like your insight on playing time or changes in their batting approach, if any, that would help guess continued/future production.
Thanks, Dennis G.
I think Seager will have a better 2013 (btw).
All due respect Matt, the ratio’s don’t tell the whole story behind Seager. You’re looking at a very small sample size in the minors as he was rushed to the majors. After he had a cup of coffee, he came back much strong and starting to fill into his body more this year.