Rotoprofessor

With the news breaking yesterday of Bill Hall suffering an injury to his calf (”a partial tear of his left calf muscle” according to mlb.com), the door appears to be slightly ajar for Mat Gamel to open the season as the Brewers 3B.

Hall is expected to miss 4-6 weeks, so there is a chance he is ready for Opening Day.  Gord Ash, the team’s assistant general manager, was quoted on mlb.com as saying, “He’s recovered fast from injuries before, but to recover enough from this injury to get onto the field could be 30-45 days, so he might be touch and go.”

It was just two years ago that Ryan Braun put on a show in Spring Training, ultimately being recalled in May to man the hot corner.  Obviously circumstances are different, but could Gamel follow in his footsteps?

While there was concerns about Braun’s defense, they were nothing compared to Gamel, who has committed 119 errors over the past three seasons (53 of which came in 2007).  Unless he has a miraculous turn around, how could the Brewers put that much pressure on a pitching staff who is already short C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets?

They have other options available to them, including Mike Lamb and Craig Counsell, but neither of them will be able to match what Gamel brings with the bat.  He hit .325 last season, mostly at Double A, with 20 HR, 99 RBI and 99 R.  Those numbers don’t tell the entire story of the monster campaign he was actually enjoying.

An elbow injury helped contribute to a staggering drop-off, struggling to a .243 average in July and .205 average in August.  In the first half of the season he posted an astounding .375 mark.

Yes, it is safe to say that his .392 BABIP just is not going to translate to the major league level.  He doesn’t have the speed for that type of success (6 SB in 13 attempts last season).  Only nine batters in the major leagues posted a BABIP above .350 last season, so things are not promising there.  He also struck out 21.9% of the time at Double A, a number that could increase as he faces tougher competition.

I know it sounds like I’m doubting his ability to hit in the majors, which is not the case at all.  I just want to temper my expectations, given how he achieved his success last season, and recommend you do the same.

Baseball America praised his hitting potential saying, “Gamel uses the entire field, drives balls to the gaps and has enough pop in his bat to hit for high average with at least 20 homers per year in the majors. He knows the strike zone-he reached base in 53 consecutive games last year-and has a quick, compact swing.”

While he hasn’t shown that much power potential, with the 20 he hit last season being his career high, the 24-year old still has some time left to continue to mature and gain strength.  It wouldn’t appear likely that he becomes a 30 HR hitter.   A player who can hit 20-25 HR with an average around .290 seems like a good bet, if he were to get full-time AB at the major league level.

If he was coming up to be a DH, it would almost be a no brainer.  The 2005 fourth round draft pick has posted a career average of .305 and OBP of .375.  The questions about his defense make it difficult to imagine seeing him break camp with the team, no matter how much his bat may help to stabilize their line-up.  It’s always possible, however, that he somehow puts it all together.  Somehow shows that he can handle the position at the major league level without setting records for errors.  If that happens he’s more then worth the gamble as a corner infielder, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

What do you think the chances of him breaking camp with the Brewers are?  Would you take the risk if he does?