Hidden Value: Which Starting Pitchers Received The Least Run Support In 2012?

We recently looked at the 10 starting pitchers with the most run support in 2012 (click here to view), but what about those whose teams never scored for them?  Let’s take a look and see if we can find any hidden value:

  1. Josh Johnson – Miami Marlins – 3.13
  2. Jeff Samardzija – Chicago Cubs – 3.21
  3. Edinson Volquez – San Diego Padres – 3.28
  4. Jeremy Hellickson – Tampa Bay Rays – 3.29
  5. Joe Saunders – Baltimore Orioles/Arizona Diamondbacks – 3.36
  6. Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners – 3.52
  7. Bronson Arroyo – Cincinnati Reds – 3.56
  8. Paul Maholm – Chicago Cubs/Atlanta Braves – 3.58
  9. Lucas Harrell – Houston Astros – 3.59
  10. Cliff Lee – Philadelphia Phillies – 3.60

Thoughts:

  • Poor run support does not fully exonerate Cliff Lee from winning just six games in 2012, but at least it helps support it a little bit.  That said, everybody should be expecting a major rebound in 2013.
  • There is no question that Josh Johnson will get better run support now that he is in Toronto. That said, is that a reason to mark him as a major buy? We all know the upside, but he has also proven to be injury prone, saw his strikeout rate (7.76 K/9) and velocity (92.8 mph, down from 93.7 for his career) decline, was hit extremely hard in ’12 (23.6% line drive rate) and now moves to the AL East. I am not going to say he’s not worth owning, but the case against him is awfully strong.
  • My feelings on Jeremy Hellickson are no secret (just click here for the write-up). So, better run support and the potential for a few more wins isn’t going to change anything.
  • Felix Hernandez didn’t get run support? Not a surprise and we all knew the potential lack of wins going in. While Kendrys Morales and Mike Morse were nice additions, it was hardly the impact moves they thirsted for. It could be much of the same, so it has no real impact on Hernandez’ value. The bigger issue is his workload and how that may impact him.
  • Jeff Samardzija is potentially the most interesting name on this list. He had a surprisingly smooth transition to the rotation, as he posted a 3.81 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. If he can maintain his control (2.89 BB/9) is a question for another day. He did pitch better than a 9 W season, the question is can the Cubs score more runs for him? They focused more on upgrading the pitching then the lineup in the offseason, so time will tell. He could continue to struggle to win games for the time being.
  • Names like Edinson Volquez or Lucas Harrell, does it really matter?
  • Paul Maholm and Bronson Arroyo are what they are, which are low level options for fantasy owners. Don’t use these numbers as reasons to grab them. They are backed fantasy starters and nothing more.

***** There are now two ways to purchase the Rotoprofessor 2013 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide ( complete with expanded rankings, prospect lists, Top 25 sleepers and so much more)!!

1) Order the guide for $6
2) Make a $10 deposit at FanDuel (if you have never deposited before) and get an additional $10 to play with and the Rotoprofessor Draft Guide Free!

Click here for details!!*****

Make sure to check out all of our 2013 projections:

Trade Reaction: Winners & Losers From Yesterday's Jed Lowrie Trade (Tyler Greene, Brad Peacock & More)
Fantasy Throwdown: Adrian Gonzalez vs. Anthony Rizzo: Should We Target The Veteran Or The Emerging Youngster?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>