2013 Rankings: Top 40 Outfielders (#21-40)

Yesterday we checked out our Top 20 outfielders for 2013 (click here to view).  Now, let’s continue rolling with #21-40 on our outfield rankings:

21. Norichika Aoki – Milwaukee Brewers
22. Alex Gordon – Kansas City Royals
23. Alex Rios – Chicago White Sox
24. Desmond Jennings – Tampa Bay Rays
25. Michael Bourn – Free Agent
26. B.J. Upton – Atlanta Braves
27. Hunter Pence – San Francisco Giants
28. Michael Cuddyer – Colorado Rockies
29. Mark Trumbo – Los Angeles Angels
30. Andre Ethier – Los Angeles Dodgers
31. Austin Jackson – Detroit Tigers
32. Michael Morse – Seattle Mariners
33. Nick Markakis – Baltimore Orioles
34. Josh Willingham – Minnesota Twins
35. Carlos Beltran – St. Louis Cardinals
36. Colby Rasmus – Toronto Blue Jays
37. Shane Victorino – Boston Red Sox
38. Nelson Cruz – Texas Rangers
39. Ichiro Suzuki – New York Yankees
40. Jayson Werth – Washington Nationals

Thoughts:

  • Where Michael Bourn lands will ultimately determine his fantasy appeal.  That said, he is more of a one trick pony since he doesn’t hit for a great average (.272) and doesn’t have much power (career high 9 HR in ’12).  While you would think he would score a lot of runs, he has never exceeded 97 in his career.  He’ll buoy you in SB, but that’s about it.
  • Desmond Jennings is coming off a poor season (.246, 13 HR, 31 SB), but he offers power and speed and also posted a subpar .298 BABIP last season.  He should bounce back and post strong numbers across the board in 2013.
  • Norichika Aoki may be a surprise at #21, but how many players provide speed and nothing more?  He proved he can hit for a strong average (.288) and there’s potential for improvement (9.4% strikeout rate).  You add that to good SB potential (30 SB) and some power (10 HR), along with the potential to score more runs (only had 416 AB in the leadoff spot) and there is an awful lot to like.
  • Remember when Hunter Pence was a lock as a Top 20 option?  Times have definitely changed, coming off a year where he hit .253 and saw his power fall a bit after his trade to San Francisco (7 HR over 219 AB).  He no longer calls a hitter’s park home and also hasn’t been a stolen base threat in two years (13 total SB).  While the average should bounce back, if he isn’t going to be 20/15 he just isn’t going to be as good of an option.  That said, he also shouldn’t be completely ignored either.
  • Josh Willingham and Carlos Beltran fall into the same category.  They are coming off great seasons, but there is little chance that they can replicate them.  Don’t over pay.
  • On the flipside, Ichiro Suzuki proved after his trade to the Yankees that there is still something left in the tank.  While he is no longer a superstar, there is definite value hitting near the top of the Yankees lineup and with the potential for a little more power then he has previously displayed.

What are your thoughts of these rankings?  Who is ranked too high?  Who is too low?

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Make sure to check out our 2013 rankings (all of which will be updated in the next few weeks):

10 comments

  1. c0dysseus says:

    Picachu Aoki seems high, played above his head for a month. Willinghammer seems too low. Finished a top 10 option last year, in a pitcher’s park.

  2. MJ says:

    He did have a great September, but it’s hard to say he played above his head when we don’t really know what he’s capable of. He was pretty good in Japan.

  3. Mikeup says:

    Aoki’s MLEs (adjusted Major League Equivalents) line up with what he did in Japan. I don’t think he played over his head, but he may have peaked. I wouldn’t pay for an improvement on 2012, but I don’t think you’re risking much by paying for a repeat. The biggest strike against him is that his value is primarily in speed right now, and he’s at the wrong age to improve on that skill year to year.

    Think about it like this: how much should you pay for a .280 average, 10-15 HR, and 20-25 SB from an outfielder? Not a lot if you’re in a relatively shallow league. OF may not be as deep as usual, but it’s still deep.

  4. Mikeup says:

    I’d rather have Gordon, Jennings, and Jackson before Aoki. I think Jackson is poised for another step forward. And maybe even Trumbo, if his contact issues in 2012 can be attributed to his back problems. That guy has legit 30 HR power, which doesn’t grow on trees.

  5. Rotoprofessor says:

    c0dysseus – In regards to Willingham, I dn’t see him matching last season’s power. A regression there nd an average closer to .250 is going to reduce his value.

    Mikeup – Good analysis of Aoki. My disagreement is in the average, because I think he can hit .300+. I also think 30+ SB and 100+ R are both realistic given a full year and hitting atop the order.

    jmax – Rios is always a hit or miss guy, but the reward is great. His key is the average, with a fluctuating BABIP. He is 20/20, though.

  6. J says:

    H2H pts league. Debating between Choo and D Jennings.
    Choo has had some back issues the last couple weeks, but they are both having productive springs.

    I see that you have Choo ranked 18th and Jennings 24th, but I think they are much closer than that.

    Any thoughts?

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