Five Late Round Outfielders To Target In 2013

While outfield isn’t as deep of a position as fantasy owners would like, that doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be found.  Here are five players currently with an ADP above 200 (or possibly available during your dollar derby at the end of your auction) that are well worth targeting:

Colby Rasmus – Toronto Blue Jays (ADP of 233.79)
I find it hard to believe that Rasmus will be available during $1 derby time, but his stock clearly has fallen.  Once considered an up-and-coming outfield option, he struggled overall hitting .223 with 23 HR, 75 RBI, 75 R and 4 SB over 565 AB.  It was the second consecutive season he hit under .230 (.225 in ’11), obviously leaving a sour taste in owner’s mouths.

That said, a lot of the problem was poor luck (.259 BABIP) as he actually posted a career best 20.1% line drive rate (similar to the 19.6% and 19.4% marks he posted in his first two seasons in St. Louis).  It was also a bit of a tale of two halves:

  • First Half – .259 with 17 HR and 53 RBI (320 AB)
  • Second Half – .176 with 6 HR and 22 RBI (245 AB)

The strikeouts did rise (29.3%) and the BABIP plummeted (.227).  That said, his first half and his line drive rate show us that the potential is still there to put it all together.  In a much deeper lineup, Rasmus looks to be a bargain worth the risk.

Carlos Gomez – Milwaukee Brewers (ADP of 211.35)
We already posted our projection for Gomez (which you can read by clicking here).  Last season there were four players who reached 20 HR and 30 SB, with Gomez falling just short of the elite group (19 HR and 37 SB).

Obviously he is not going to be truly elite thanks to the potential lack of average (career .247 hitter), but the increased power appears to be for real (HR/FB has risen for four consecutive years).  Couple that with his speed and he is going to be well worth owning.

Adam Eaton – Arizona Diamondbacks (ADP of 221.50)
The biggest benefactor of the Justin Upton trade, Eaton figures to start in centerfield and leadoff for the Diamondbacks.  He is going to lose some time to Gerardo Parra, but there should be ample AB to go around.

We all know his .381 average at Triple-A is not sustainable, considering his .432 BABIP, but he has proven he can make good contact (12.1% strikeout rate at Triple-A, 14.6% in the Majors).  That is definitely a characteristic fantasy owners (and real teams) love to see from potential leadoff men.  The more he puts the ball in play the more opportunities he has to make things happen, both in terms of runs scored and stolen bases.

He stole 38 bases at Triple-A and, with a good offense behind him, should be able to score plenty of runs.  While he’s not going to hit for much power (9 HR total last season), even if he reaches 5 HR it’ll be a bonus.

Darin Mastroianni – Minnesota Twins (ADP of 270.91)
The fallout of the Twins trading both Denard Span and Ben Revere means that there is a gaping hole in CF and atop the Twins’ order.  Mastroianni will likely get the first opportunity to fill the void, and he clearly showed in a limited time in ’12 that he can make an impact.

He had 163 AB for the Twins last season, hitting .252 with 21 SB.  He needs to do a better job of making contact (24.2% strikeout rate), and he also doesn’t offer any power.  That said, if you are looking for SB he is a good niche fit.

Wil Myers – Tampa Bay Rays (ADP of 234.04)
If he’s available at the end is completely dependent on the format you play in.  He is one of the premier young hitters in the game and, while there is some risk that he struggles early on in his career, there is too much upside and potential not to roll the dice.

For our full analysis of Myers, click here.

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Make sure to check out our 2013 rankings (all of which will be updated in the next few weeks):


  1. Seth says:

    Adam Eaton has been talked about on EVERY site. I think you will see many reach for his “potential” earlier.

    • KB says:

      There was a day about a month ago in which three separate fantasy sites ran a “Gomez Sleeper” post on the exact same day. “Sleeper” seems to be a pretty saturated term at this point.

      • duder says:

        Then add in that Yahoo ranks them at their sleeper potential (ie Gomez is now a 10th round pick ranked just outside the top 100) and you can’t really call them “late round” bargains anymore. You’re paying for Gomez expecting a repeat at this point, risk of regression be damned.

  2. big o says:

    are these adp’s based on mdc data ?
    mdc’s rankings are woefully out of whack .
    i think that they don’t up-date often enough

    that said , many are jumping on the gomez and eaton bandwagons , but rasmus might find himself out of a job if he continues to under-perform .

  3. Alex says:

    True on Gomez/Eaton popularity, but perhaps that just means it’s more challenging to be unique given all the Internet resources and pundits. I do like the Mastroianni pick as a sort of Ben Revere ambush, since getting that pure speed stat guy late and cheap in Roto can really turn the tables in one’s league. Loved Revere last year, hoping to get Mastroianni this year.

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