2013 Rankings: Top 50 Starting Pitchers (#21-40)

Earlier in the week we looked at our Top 20 Starting Pitchers (click here to view).  Let’s continue the rankings and take a look at the next 20:

21. CC Sabathia – New York Yankees
22. Chris Sale – Chicago White Sox
23. Max Scherzer – Detroit Tigers
24. Daren Haren – Washington Nationals
25. Ian Kennedy – Arizona Diamondbacks
26. Yovani Gallardo – Milwaukee Brewers
27. Jordan Zimmermann – Washington Nationals
28. Matt Garza – Chicago Cubs
29. Jonathan Niese – New York Mets
30. Jon Lester – Boston Red Sox
31. Brandon Morrow – Toronto Blue Jays
32. Matt Harvey – New York Mets
33. Derek Holland – Texas Rangers
34. Hiroki Kuroda – New York Yankees
35. Doug Fister – Detroit Tigers
36. Jake Peavy – Chicago White Sox
37. Matt Moore – Tampa Bay Rays
38. Josh Johnson – Toronto Blue Jays
39. Phil Hughes – New York Yankees
40. Jaime Garcia – St. Louis Cardinals

Thoughts:

  • Sabathia dealt with injuries in 2012 and we have to start to wonder if his workload over the years has started to catch up to him.  Surgery on his elbow to remove a bone spur just further complicates things?  Is he going to be a poor option?  You wouldn’t think so, but there is significantly more risk involved than there used to be.  You have to take that into account when ranking him.
  • Can Max Scherzer ever put it together for an entire season?  If he can, he could easily emerge as a Top 10 option.  In the second half last season he posted a 2.69 ERA and 110 K over 90.1 IP, just showing how dominant he can be.
  • Dan Haren has had his issues recently, but moving back to the NL?  You have to like that upside potential.
  • Is Matt Harvey going to be the same type of pitcher he was after being recalled in 2012?  An 81.3% strand rate makes you think that he is going to regress, but he proved to be a bulldog on the mound with strikeout stuff (10.62 K/9).  Sure, wins could be tough to come by pitching for the Mets, but it’s hard not to like him as a SP3.
  • Will Jon Lester be able to rebound in 2013, or is he going to struggle for the second consecutive season?  To see our projection for him, and why we are expecting a better year, click here.
  • How will Josh Johnson fair moving to the American League East?  Will he be able to stay healthy?  While he has the talent, there are some significant questions hanging over his head.
  • Matt Moore has been heavily hyped, but does that mean he is a lock to contribute after struggling a bit in 2012 (1.35 WHIP)?  He has the strikeout ability, but he needs to get his control in order (4.11 BB/9) if he wants to emerge as one of the better starting pitchers in the league.

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Make sure to check out our 2013 rankings (all of which will be updated in the next few weeks):

9 comments

  1. jmax says:

    In a points league where K’s are quite valuable I’m having a hell of time deciding between Scherzer and Wainwright. I see a lot of projections of Schezer’s K rate dropping back down. Do you see any chance of him breaking 200 again?

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      I have him projected right at 200 on the nose, so I would say yes. It’s definitely realistic that he posts a 200+ season.

  2. foolintherain says:

    Do you have any hesitation in selecting Felix Hernandez as a 6th keeper now that he has signed his contract?

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      It would depend on who your other options are…

      • foolintherain says:

        My league keeps 5-7 players with no limits or penalties other than you miss that round draft pick. Felix would be my 6th keeper and I won’t be keeping a 7th player. As a result, the only thing I would be missing is being able to draft non-keeper players a round earlier. I will be keeping Matt Cain as my 5th keeper.

        I think it comes down to whether or not you believe that the pre-contract physical showed “ordinary wear and tear” or something to really worry about.

        • Cliff says:

          Somehow I don’t think any GM would hand out the largest contract in history for a pitcher, if an MRI revealed something worrisome in his elbow. I know there’s some sort of provision in the event of some specific injury, but I’d still argue that any half-decent GM would steer clear regardless of said clause.

  3. Bbboston says:

    R-prof:
    Rarely does holland get ranked so high …

    Why are you so high on him?

  4. jmax says:

    Hmmmm….
    where does Chapman fit in????

  5. Rotoprofessor says:

    Bbboston – Holland actually had a 1.22 WHIP and limited the line drive rate last season (16.8%). The biggest issue last season were home runs, which never had been a problem before. Assuming he can rectify that problem, with solid strikeout numbers and good control, there’s no reason to think he can’t be a Top 40 SP.

    jmax – That’s an interesting dillema at this point, as I’m still not completely sold that he is going to start (and he definitely won’t be there all year long). With the number of innings he’s going to pitch, most likely, and the liklihood that he earns saves towards the end of the year he actually would come in at the bottom of the Top 20 (in my overall rankings I have him between Kris Medlen & Johnny Cueto).

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