2013 Projection: Can Ike Davis Develop Into A 40+ HR Threat?

We all know the story that was Ike Davis’ 2012 campaign. Maybe it was the recovery from the ankle injury that ended his 2011 season (which of course hit just went it looked like he was primed for a breakout). Maybe it was the effects of Valley Fever, which he was diagnosed with last spring. Whatever the case, we look at the numbers and know he was a different player from June 1 on:

  • April – .185 with 3 HR
  • May – .154 with 2 HR
  • June – .264 with 6 HR
  • July – .221 with 9 HR
  • August – .287 with 5 HR
  • September – .242 with 5 HR

It all adds up to a .227 average with 32 HR. The average is easy to overlook, considering his 21.1% line drive rate and .246 BABIP. Is he going to hit .300? Not likely, but .260 could be his floor this season. Given his power, that’s more than enough (just see Adam Dunn).

The really question is how much more power is there for him to give?

Since 2010 he has had at least 75 AB in 12 separate months, hitting at least 4 HR in nine of them (75%). Even if that was all he did for six straight months he would deliver 24 HR, but he showed last season that he was capable of so much more.

In fact, in 2012 there is only one month where the HR/FB really sticks out (39.1% in July). His 21.1% overall mark placed him 12th in the league, so while you can say that a regression may be in order, I certainly wouldn’t call it a given.

Prior to 2010 Baseball America said the following regarding Davis:

“Davis has quick hands and lift in his swing, giving him plus power. He has the bat speed to catch up to good fastballs.”

Plus power is plus power and, even with the injuries, there is nothing to make us think that it is going to disappear. If you watch him play you can simply see that he can hit the ball out of any ballpark. Granted, only 11 of his HR came at home in 2012, but over his first two season he hit 13 of his 26 HR came at home.

There is ample power and, if you wanted to be wild, you could easily say that he will approach 40 HR this season. That said, the safe money is definitely on 30-35, which should be a virtual lock.

In fact, here is our 2013 projection:

.274 (144-525), 31 HR, 100 RBI, 80 R, 0 SB, .311 BABIP, .354 OBP, .509 SLG

You can say that the runs scored could be an issue, especially given the lack of lineup depth the Mets possess.  That said, he can easily offset that by hitting for even more power then we are projecting.  It wouldn’t be a shock to see him end the year at 35+, making him an ideal player to target.

What are your thoughts of Davis?  What type of numbers are you expecting from him in 2013?

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  1. jmax says:

    So this tells me Davis over Freeman….?

  2. beardawg says:

    Ike’s got no lineup protection–he’s just like Giancarlo–why would anybody ever throw near the plate with him? He can’t get to 40 if he’s just being pitched balls.

  3. Rotoprofessor says:

    jmx – No. As much as I am a big fan of Davis’, Freeman is definitely the better option.

    beardawg – It’s a fair point, but if the Mets are constantly trailing there is no reason to walk someone. Time will tell, but I would expect him (and Stanton) to still get their production.

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