Quick Hit: Prince Fielder
2008 Statistics:
588 At Bats
.276 Batting Average (162 Hits)
34 Home Runs
102 RBI
86 Runs
3 Stolen Bases
.372 On Base Percentage
.507 Slugging Percentage
.305 Batting Average on Balls in Play
Thoughts:
Yes, the power fell off dramatically and the slugging percentage fell by over 100 points (.618 in 2007), but is that line really that disappointing. No, he wasn’t the first round pick people wanted to believe. Those same people are using every excuse in the book to justify his fall off, including the fact that Fielder became a vegetarian.
The truth of the matter is very few players hit 50 HR a season, especially now. It’s not fair to expect him to return to that, but with the possibility in the back of our minds, it’s certainly worth taking the plunge. His HR/FB fell from 23.9% to 18.2% while is FB% fell from 45.8% to 40.3%. Is it really unreasonable to expect both of those numbers to rebound, at least a little bit?
He hit only 8 HR over the seasons first two months, compared to 19 in 2007 (when he had only 1 month under 6). He didn’t hit his first HR until April 17. I don’t think it’s a stretch to see him get more HR then last season.
2009 Projection:
.280 (159-568), 38 HR, 105 RBI, 91 R, 2 SB, .299 BABIP, .380 OBP, .548 SLG
Conclusion:
I didn’t spend any time on anything outside of his power because let’s be honest, when you are drafting Fielder that’s what you want. His average will be decent and thanks to my expectations for a big season from Corey Hart, his runs should rebound as well. Still, you want him for the HR and that’s something I believe he can increase on from last season.
No, he shouldn’t be a first round pick, but if he were there in the third round (or maybe even the late second depending on things), I would not hesitate from grabbing him. What about you? Is Fielder a player you want?
Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.
I wonder if anybody has ever considered drawing the parallel with Cecil’s career. After moving to Detroit and becoming an everyday player, he had outstanding power performance for a few years as a late bloomer before his power numbers faded considerably. His first season with Detroit, he hit 50 homers (I believe he was the first player in the generation to do so?) I’m not sure what this tells us, I just find it interesting that his dad’s power numbers fell off somewhat after that initial burst.
Again, I think you’re about on the money with him. If everyone stays healthy, Milwaukee could have a very nice Offense this year.
eric <=== you big chicken !!
you know the guy’s gonna hit at least 42 .
just say it .
you’ll feel better , once you do .
Big O, it really wouldn’t surprise me if he got there. That’s not to say that I expect it, but it is a real possibility. Is that splitting my answer too much?