Quick Hit: Erik Bedard
2008 Statistics:
6 Wins
81.0 Innings
3.67 ERA
1.32 WHIP
72 Strikeouts (8.00 K/9)
37 Walks (4.11 BB/9)
.281 BABIP
Thoughts:
I did an early write up of him all the way back in October (click here to view).
He’s proven that when he can take the mound, the guy can flat out pitch. That seems to be the only true concern, especially coming off shoulder problems that cost him the majority of 2009. The talk is of him being healthy thus far this spring and he’s shown it, throwing 4.2 innings of shutout baseball. He’s given up just 3 hits and 1 walk, striking out 3.
Obviously, it’s still very early and that’s a rather small sample, but it’s encouraging nonetheless. I’d love to go into the season expecting him to throw at least 180 innings, as he’s proven he could do it before. I just can’t be that optimistic, however. We’ve seen pitchers like Rich Harden seemingly get hurt every single season, so the fear has got to be there when it comes to Bedard. He’s had three separate injuries over the past two seasons, reason enough for doubt.
2009 Projection:
160.0 IP, 9 W, 3.94 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 151 K (8.49 K/9), 61 BB (3.43 BB/9)
Conclusion:
He’s got the talent and the potential to significantly outperform those projections if he can stay on the mound, but that’s a huge if. As I’ve said, that’s the problem. He also has the potential to pitch less innings and become a waste of a pick completely. He pitches for what figures to be one of the worst teams in baseball, further hindering his value.
To me, it’s one of those big-time high risk, high reward picks. Even if he doesn’t return to the 3.16 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 221 K performance from 2007, he could have plenty of value. That makes him a gamble I would certainly take in the late rounds. What about you? Do you think he’ll make enough starts to have value or is he going to disappoint once again?
Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.
I’ll take a flyer on BEDARD 15th round on. Why not? I think he could return anywhere from 8th round to 4th round value easily if he can stay healthy, and if he goes down you drop him and grab the next waiver wire Hero…. I think he’s a great high risk high reward guy a la Harden like you mentioned….
I’d take a shot on him late as well. Even if you miss, you’re aren’t missing out on much.
I got him at the 14.12 pick in a 14 team ML draft and think he’s a good value given the other pitchers available at that slot or that went ahead of him. At that spot in the draft he should definitely be able to return that value. The next three starters taken were Chris Young, Gil Meche, and Mark Buerle who don’t have near the upside that Bedard does and the first two are on equally bad teams. I’d rather take someone at that spot that has the stuff of an ace than take someone like Buerle who you know isn’t going to exceed his production other than maybe marginally in wins. Another high upside, risky pick was getting Randy Johnson two rounds later. Between the two I ought to get some really solid production even if not for the entire season. As my 4th and 5th pitchers they don’t need to carry my staff.
I couldn’t agree with you more Chad. I think people write off someone like Bedard because of the injury risk, but just remember what you are drafting him as. He’s not meant to be your ace pitcher. Everyone owner is going to need to go to the waiver wire at some point during the season for a starting pitcher, it’s basically inevitable.