Rotoprofessor

2008 Statistics:
419 At Bats
.274 Batting Average (115 Hits)
17 Home Runs
73 RBI
58 Runs
2 Stolen Bases
.338 On Base Percentage
.461 Slugging Percentage
.287 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Thoughts:
It’s safe to say that even if healthy, Lowell is not the player he was in 2007.  He never showed he could be that player except before and it came with a lot of luck (.342).  He’s also not the power hitter he showed in 2003, when he hit 32 HR thanks to a 17.1% HR/FB.

What he is is a consistent player with the potential to be a steal in the late rounds of your draft.  Even last season, if he had stayed healthy, he would have produced similar numbers in the power and average departments as he has in years past.  Over the past three seasons he’s posted a HR/FB rate between 8.6% and 9.9%.  That tells me he’s going to be a low-to-mid 20’s HR hitter.

He’s also a career .279 hitter and has always been in that range, outside of his huge season and his .236 debacle in 2005 that ticketed his way outside of Florida.   Basically, we should expect much of the same.

The only question comes from his health.  He’s coming back from a torn hip labrum, costing him his participation in the World Baseball Classic.  He also has not yet appeared in a Spring Training game and is a threat to miss the beginning of the season.  At 35-years old, it should almost be a foregone conclusion that he misses at least a little bit of time.

2009 Projection:
.275 (131-476), 20 HR, 78 RBI, 69 R, 2 SB, .280 BABIP, .338 OBP, .464 SLG

Conclusion:
He’s a solid option as a corner infielder, thanks to his potential to out produce these projections if he were to stay healthy.  Still, the risk of him going down once again and missing a significant chunk of the season tells me to stay away from him as my starting third baseman.

What does everyone else think?