Around the Majors: May 5, 2013: Looking The Struggles of Andy Pettitte, Eric Hosmer & Much More

Roy Halladay was torched once again, this time by the lowly Miami Marlins.  He allowed 9 ER on 4 H and 4 BB, striking out 4, over 2.1 IP raising his ERA to a gaudy 8.65.  Unsurprisingly, there are rumblings that he could be headed to the DL and, while fantasy owners will want to stash him if possible, it’s hard to expect much from him moving forward.

Now, let’s look at the rest of the stories from yesterday’s games:

  • Matt Cain finally got a victory, allowing 1 ER on 5 H and 3 BB, striking out 4, over 7.1 IP against a depleted Dodgers lineup.  That’s not to say that he doesn’t deserve credit, as they still had Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford and others starting the game.  The big difference between yesterday and his previous 4 outings is the home run ball.  He had allowed 9 HR in his previous four starts, but kept the ball in the ballpark yesterday.  As long as he can continue to avoid the home runs, he should continue to thrive (1.09 WHIP).
  • For the second straight outing Andy Pettitte was relatively ineffective.  He allowed 4 R (3 earned) on 4 H and 4 BB, striking out 2, over 5.0 IP.  Over his past two starts he’s now gone 9.1 IP allowing 10 ER on 14 H and 5 BB, striking out 5.  Obviously we all know his upside and know not to give up hope.  That said, sooner or later you have to think that the 40-year old could run out of steam.  We’re not about to suggest that’s what is happening and definitely suggest holding onto him, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
  • Brandon Morrow was wildly effective, allowing 2 ER on 3 H and 5 BB, striking out 8, over 8.0 IP to defeat the Mariners.  Control is always the biggest obstacle for Morrow and he can’t overcome this many walks very often.  Over his last three starts (19.1 IP) he does have 11 BB, but the strikeout upside obviously makes him well worth owning.
  • It was an ugly outing for Jonathan Niese, allowing 7 ER on 7 H and 6 BB, striking out 3, over 4.0 IP.  He entered the day with a 4.68 K/9, well behind his career mark (7.38) and an increased walk rate (3.58 vs. a career mark of 2.80).  While the groundball rate was up (55.5%), the other numbers make it nearly impossible for him to excel.  We would anticipate him improving as the season progresses (he did have a 6.01 ERA in May ’12), so don’t cut bait.
  • Freddie Freeman posted a big day, going 3-5 with 1 HR, 3 RBI and 2 R.  The home run was his first since Opening Day (he did miss time one the DL), but in 17 games he already has 15 RBI and is hitting .313.  There was a lot expected from him entering the season and there’s a good chance he lives up to the hype.  While the power hasn’t been there yet, he entered the day with a 5.6% HR/FB.
  • It was a nice start for Mike Pelfrey, allowing 1 ER on 4 H and 1 BB, striking out 7, over 6.0 IP to improve to 3-3 on the season.  Of course, he also has a 6.35 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and 14 K as he is a generally untrustworthy option.  Don’t get caught up in one or two decent outings as there is way too much risk outside of the deepest formats.
  • Starling Marte homered for the second straight game, going 1-4 with 1 HR, 1 RBI and 1 R.  He has now scored at least 1 R in eight straight games and is hitting .325 with 5 HR, 16 RBI, 24 R and 10 SB.  He entered the day with a .412 BABIP, so we know the average is going to regress.  He also has only posted a 26.4% fly ball rate, so there is no guarantee that he maintains the power either.  He’s got a ton of potential and is a viable option, but don’t expect these types of numbers to continue.
  • While Brandon Inge may not be the most ideal option, in NL-only formats he is bringing some under the radar value.  With Neil Walker on the DL Inge should continue to play fairly regularly, yesterday playing in RF and 2B.  He’s hitting .294 in 34 AB and does have some power potential.  If you are desperate he is well worth adding.
  • It was a poor day for Eric Hosmer, who went 0-5 dropping his average to .259.  As if that wasn’t bad enough, he still is without a home run and has just 9 RBI and 0 R in 25 games.  Considering he has spent 59 AB hitting 3-5, those numbers are simply unacceptable.  He continues to bury the ball into the ground (54.8% groundball rate entering the day), making a big HR total difficult.  Couple that with an increased strikeout rate (20.7%) and there are reasons to be skeptical.  That’s not to say that he won’t get things going, but it’s hard to imagine gaudy numbers at this point.
  • It was another disaster for Marco Estrada, allowing 8 ER on 6 H and 5 BB, striking out 5, over 3.1 IP.  He’s now allowed 13 ER over his past 8.1 IP and you have to wonder just how long his rotation spot is guaranteed for.
  • Both Jon Jay (2-4, 2 R) and Allen Craig (2-5, 4 RBI, 1 R) continued their recent good play.  Unfortunately the same cannot be said for David Freese, who went 0-5 with 3 K.  It’s one game, so we don’t want to get too discouraged as he had been warming up a bit.  Still, it’s a definitey step backwards.
  • Without Giancarlo Stanton, the Marlins have suddenly found two middle of the order bats who are scorching hot.  Justin Ruggiano went 2-3 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 R and 1 SB while Marcell Ozuna went 4-5 with 3 RBI and 3 R.  Both players tremendous upside and are worth owning in all five-outfielder formats.  While the Marlins had not been playing Ruggiano regularly prior to Stanton’s injury, he should now be a fixture in the middle of the order.
  • Nick Markakis is hitting in the middle of the Orioles lineup, but he hasn’t been doing much lately.  He went 0-3 yesterday and is 6-29 with 0 HR, 2 RBI and 2 R over his past seven games.  He’s a solid, though unspectacular option and is going to continue to have value in most formats.
  • Phil Humber fell to 0-7 with an 8.82 ERA after he allowed 8 ER on 8 H and 3 BB, striking out 1, over 4.0 IP.  I know they have limited other options, but how long can they really stick with him?  If Jared Cosart finds his way into the rotation he will have fantasy intrigue.
  • It was a big day for Andy Dirks, going 4-4 with 1 HR, 2 RBI and 3 R.  With a slew of RHP on the horizon he could be a sneaky play for the coming week.
  • Jedd Gyorko went 2-4 with 1 HR, 2 RBI and 1 R.  Over his past six games he has now gone 9-23 with 2 HR, 5 RBI and 4 R.  He’s finally starting to live up to his potential and, while he may have been overhyped to start the season, he should still hold value.
  • Interesting to see Nolan Arenado hitting in the second spot of the order, going 2-5 with 1 HR, 1 RBI and 1 R.  He’s now homered in back-to-back games and is hitting .323 with 3 HR and 8 RBI since his recall.
  • Jhoulys Chacin made his first start since April 19, allowing 6 R (5 earned) on 8 H and 3 BB, striking out 3, over 7.0 IP.  While he had been pitching well prior to hitting the DL, he also was benefitting from a .221 BABIP and 87.4% strand rate.  Consider him of more of a 3.50-4.00 ERA type pitcher.

Bullpen Notes:

  • Addison Reed blew his first save of the season, allowing 2 ER on 1 H and 2 BB, striking out 0, in his inning of work.  It happens to the best of them so don’t get concerned.  He’s been solid all season long and obviously is in no jeopardy.
  • It was another poor day for John Axford, who allowed 1 ER on 2 H and 2 BB in just 0.1 IP.  It’s getting extremely difficult to recommend stashing him, unless you are absolutely desperate for saves.  It’s going to take a lot for him to return to ninth inning duties.
  • With Aroldis Chapman having pitched oin back-to-back days it was J.J. Hoover who got the save opportunity.  He allowed 1 H in an otherwise perfect inning to earn his second save of the season.  While he isn’t going to get many opportunities, he could be in line to vulture a few saves for those in the deepest of formats.
  • Darren O’Day picked up a 4 out save, allowing 1 H and striking out 1.  Obviously, he’s not going to be taking over for Jim Johnson, so consider it just a one-time vulture.

7 comments

  1. Milo says:

    After waiting last year and this year, I did cut my bait on Niese. I may be proven wrong, but the “potential” tout on him has not been realized. He is what he is.

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      Except right now he is worse then he’s been any previous year. Have to think there’s a turn around coming

      • Doc Mike says:

        I actually watched The Mets game yesterday. Niese was not nearly as bad as the stats would indicate. The Met’s defense was terrible. At least three plays which should have been made (Duda in left, A passed ball which was ruled a wild pitch, and an error by Wright, ruled a base hit by a generous home scorer.) if these plays are made he could have gotten out of that performance with only a few earned runs.

        • Rotoprofessor says:

          Agreed, but the defense doesn’t justify the 6 BB and the overall lack of Ks that he’s shown thus far this season.

          I am a big fan of his, but right now the results aren’t there.

  2. MJ says:

    How about Rutledge?! Finally has that OBA over .300! As I stated before the season started, he was being highly over-loved. I will give him credit for the BB:K ratio so far (11:19) which is much better than I expected.

  3. Nate says:

    Any evidence that Pettitte’s sudden problems might be connected to the swap in catchers?

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