We all knew Jean Segura had talent, but he has far exceeded any expectations thus far. Through Monday all he had done was hit .368 with 6 HR, 16 RBI, 20 R and 13 SB in 136 AB. For as great as he has been, we all know that we have to be realistic. Chances are he is going to regress. The only question is how far (all stats are courtesy of Fangraphs unless otherwise noted).
Segura has done a great job of making contact, with a 12.8% strikeout rate. It’s marginally better than we should’ve expected, considering his 13.9% mark in the Majors in 2012 and 13.8% mark in 364 AB with the Angels Double-A affiliate. It has increased in May (14.0%), which would’ve been closer to expectations.
He has also done a good job of hitting the ball well, with a 21.1% line drive rate. Couple that with his speed and you would expect an above average BABIP. However, his .393 mark is a bit excessive.
That said, it is far from a guarantee that he continues making such good contact. According to Minor League Central (which has his current Major League line drive rate higher, at 25.4%), his minor league line drive rate since 2011 is 15.0% (and was 16.9% last season). While seeing him mature is to be expected, this represents a mighty hefty improvement.
It’s possible that pitchers are still learning how to pitch to him and a major correction is coming. Of course, it’s also possible that at 23-years old he as taken a major step forward in his development as a player. The truth probably lies somewhere between the two, but one thing we do know is that his average is going to take a hit (and possibly a substantial one).
ROS Expectation – .285+
He’s hit 6 HR, which isn’t a ton, but he’s not a power hitter. He has never hit more than 10 HR in a season and is currently sporting a 50.9% groundball rate. The fact is, while it has been a nice bonus, it is impossible to think he’s going to maintain this type of pace.
ROS Expectation – 8-10 HR
Segura can run and, seeing him hit towards the top of the order, it’s not a surprise that the stolen bases are coming. Last season he totaled 44 SB and had 50 back in 2010. While he may slow down a little bit, there’s no reason to think he can’t keep on chugging along. That said, hitting in front of Ryan Braun could keep him planted at first base a little bit more often than we’d like.
ROS Expectation – 20+ SB
Segura has battled injuries before, but as long as he can stay healthy there is a lot to like. I would expect pitchers to adjust, leading to a significant drop in the average. I also wouldn’t expect him to come close to this power pace. That said, even if he performs at my baseline numbers for the rest of the season there is a lot to like (especially since he should continue scoring runs).
He’s not an automatic sell high candidate, especially in keeper leagues. He has the potential to be a Top 7 or 8 SS, or better, for years to come. In yearly formats, though, his value won’t likely get any greater than it is right now.